Air New Zealand Cup (NPC) 2008 - Discussion and Prediction League

[Somerset]

Canterbury move through to the semis with a 38 point win against Tasman - I expected it to be a much tighter game. Could've been an even greater victory to be honest, with Canterbury coming close to scoring on numerous other occasions. McCaw played for about 25 minutes, as involved as ever. Brad Thorn turned out for Tasman, and was useful but on a side that was clearly inferior. Credit due to Tasman for making the top eight though - after the initial decision to expel them from the competition from 2009, and the pressure of winning, with a bonus point, against Manawatu in the final game in order to make the quarter finals.

 

[~DanVettoriFan~]

Woohoo go Southland!!!!!! We creamedddddddddd them Steamers!

If we're on our game, we have just as good a chance against Wellington as anyone!! and they've been off the pace the past couple of games!

Imagine a Southland v Hawkes Bay final.

 

[Somerset]

Superb game this afternoon - to be completely honest Waikato had all the opportunities and territory, and I was extremely worried Hawkes Bay might throw away a 28-0 half time lead after Waikato came storming back in the second 40 minutes. I think time in the opposition 22 was something like 4 minutes to 18, with territory just as one sided. Lauaki was pretty poor to be honest and I expected more from Muliana too. Black, white, alright, c'mon the Bay.

Thought that Wellington were again average this week and the 50-30 scoreline against Taranaki doesn't do justice to how close the game really was. The last try was a freebie so we might as well make it 43-30 (it'd give me a bonus in the tipping competition if it was). IMO, stand outs for Taranaki were Paul Perez, Jayden Haywood and Jason Eaton. The former two have come on sensationally this season, while Eaton seems to be regaining some of the form before his long injury layoff. Like Lauaki this afternoon, wasn't overly impressed with Nonu, even though he scored a try, and wasn't surprised to see him replaced early in the second half.

As for the other game yesterday, great stuff from Southland to belt the Bay of Plenty. Fantastic intensity and fluency in their play. Te Whare in particular was outstanding. They'll play Wellington this weekend and unless the Shield holders can wake up from a strange late season form slump, Southland must fancy their chances. As for the BOP, although their results faded away in the latter stages of the competition, for a side that finished second to bottom last year, a home semi must be regarded as a great achievement - I get the feeling playing week-in week-out took its toll on some of their lesser experienced squad members to make them a real chance come play-off time.

 

[_Ed_]

Really good to see the Bay win, they're my adopted team for the rest of the season.

 

[Somerset]

Points Table after quarter finals:

1 BoyBrumby 81.67
2 SmytheNZ 72.33
3 Somerset 70.83
4 HeathyD 64.83
5 Edmunds 63.33
6 Vimes 48.00

No way that Brumby can be beaten now - hes too far ahead for even a mathematical chance of someone else stealing top spot. Voltman rises to second with only the semis and final to go.

I've picked Wellington and Canterbury to win their semis by reasonable margins, though I'd love to see one of them upset by Southland or Hawkes Bay.

 

[Somerset]

So Wellington win and will host the final next week - with 15 minutes to go it looked anything but guaranteed though. Hosea Gear was sensational and if he doesn't go on the end of year tour, and is ranked behind Rudi Wulf, Guildford or whoever else they strangely favour, theres something seriously wrong. He was brilliant tonight, as was Weepu - so at least the ABs know he has the goods to slot into first five in a pressure situation with relative confidence in his ability. Thought Southland did well to stay in the game for the first 50 minutes and then score an awesome try - top kick from Stewart and well finished by Te Whare. LOL at Steve Walsh...for those who didn't watch the match he went off injured after 25 minutes (done his archilles was his first thought) and was replaced by Kelvin Deaker, who let both sides get away with far too much IMO.

 

[HeathDavisSpeed]

Kelvin Deaker, who let both sides get away with far too much IMO.

Indeed. Very different from Walsh who'd kept things in control with the Southland sin-binning early on. It was a different game when Deaker came on.

Wellington were atrocious in the first 25 minutes of the second half. Too loose on the ball, didn't support the runners enough and made a lot of stupid, obvious deliberate errors.

Ma'a Nonu was total crap.

Once again, the game was won through Wellington's exceptional bench strength. Having Conrad Smith come on with 20 minutes to go really gives you two bites at the cherry in some ways.

Unfortunately, Canterbury are about the only other team with that strength in depth, and based on the last couple of weeks; Canterbury will demolish Wellington. I'm hoping the Bay get up against the Cantabs, but I'm sceptical of that as Canterbury seem to be the only team who have the wood on the Bay.

 

[Smudge]

Unfortunately the caketin crowd is full of idiots, aside from myself. There was a heaving great fat bastard who was abusing us for supporting Southland then, when there was a TMO decision looming, he was mimicking a rugby league referee's signal for a try (ie. pointing at the ball with one arm and blowing the whistle with the other). I yelled out "wrong sport, buddy" then added, for good measure, "go and have another pie, you fat ****".

Unfortunately Wellington won.

Still not getting the Gear love - he loses the ball in contact far too often. Stewart's fancy-pants bull**** may have set up one try but he put his team under too much pressure at other times.

 

[99*]

Come on HB!

Give me someone to cheer for in the final.

 

[Somerset]

Canterbury win but like Southland in last night's match, its not as if Hawkes Bay didn't have opportunties. The two tries around the 60-65 minute mark really killed the Magpies, especially given Michael Johnson dropped the ball a metre out from what was basically an open try line a minute prior. Can't remember if it was Egan or Snyman but theres another try that really should've been scored by Hawkes Bay too. Karl Lowe had a great game considering he had Richie McCaw as his opposite while Shoemark didn't have his finest evening after being talked up by the commentators for the entire season about not receiving a Super 14 contract.

Next week should be fantastic, even if I'd have prefered to have seen any team but Wellington and Canterbury contest the final. My guess is Canterbury will be the slightest of favourites, with Wellington looking a little vulnerable in recent weeks; but Hawkes Bay scored three tries tonight and could've had a few more, so its not as though the Cantabs' defence is unbreakable. Its a shame they didn't meet in the round robin for a taster of the clash we'll witness next Saturday evening.

 

[Somerset]

Still not getting the Gear love - he loses the ball in contact far too often. Stewart's fancy-pants bull**** may have set up one try but he put his team under too much pressure at other times.

His brilliant individual effort with Wellington trailing with 15 minutes to go, along with numerous other storming runs throughout the evening last night alone gives some vindication of why most are considering him a strong favourite for the ABs. Plus hes scored 14 tries this season, that kinda helps when you look at the respective tallies for the likes of Lelia Masaga.

 

[Smudge]

Difference between Gear and Masaga being that one plays for a team at the top of the table and another plays for a cellar-dweller. Hardly a fair comparison.

 

[HeathDavisSpeed]

Masaga has looked well short of his top form this NPC, though. I have a feeling Gear is probably playing at 100% - Masaga somewhere between 40% and 60% at best.

 

[~DanVettoriFan~]

*sigh* So close!! Whilst we made a few mistakes near the end of the game, I can't help the thought of Kelvin Deaker stuffing us up.

Ohwell the boys did bloody well and will do just as good next season heres hoping

I was abit peeved with Weepu though when he never gave us any credit.

 

[Somerset]

Difference between Gear and Masaga being that one plays for a team at the top of the table and another plays for a cellar-dweller. Hardly a fair comparison.

Fully agree with regards to the strength of their sides, but Gear's looked keen for work and finished superbly. How often did Masaga really look interested this season? It took him about four weeks to actually make a line break. Obviously Counties were woeful and hardly helped Masaga reach the sort of form that saw him so clinical a few years ago but to be honest, one try in the whole season (and that in the 80th minute of Counties' final match), whether or not he had a heap of support, has got to highlight something.

 

[Somerset]

*sigh* So close!! Whilst we made a few mistakes near the end of the game, I can't help the thought of Kelvin Deaker stuffing us up.

I think Deaker let both sides infringe far too much - so I certainly don't believe he was the reason Southland lost.

Points Table after semi finals:

1 BoyBrumby 85.67
2 SmytheNZ 78.33
3 Somerset 75.33
4 HeathyD 70.33
5 Edmunds 63.33
6 Vimes 48.00

No changes to the table, Ed forgets to make his picks so his chances of fourth disappear. The only possible change in the table now will be if I pick the winner in the final, and Voltman tips incorrectly (given the final is worth three points for tipping the winner).

 

[Somerset]

In some ways the final was exactly what I think most of us were anticipating - a tight match with little separating the two sides. Canterbury's defence was sensational, as it had been all season, while Wellington's attacking ability to create something from nothing which has been such a feature of their season was negated by Canterbury's efforts particularly in the second half. Not being able to score with such ease, like they've done to basically every other side from turnovers, IMO was the difference. Canterbury had unusually poor hands but their defence was so good that it hardly mattered that they scored once in 80 minutes.

In terms of entertainment, I'd say the final was at a lower level that the previous two in the Air New Zealand Cup. But basing it on the tense and extremely closely fought nature of the match it'd probably rate it the highest on that scale. Even so, the games in the last few weeks have produced so much attacking rugby with some sensational running rugby that perhaps tonight's low scoring final did justice to just how closely matched the two sides were.

 

[Somerset]

As the All Black squad is named tomorrow, just thought I'd post my prediction on the 35-strong team to tour:
Tight Forwards: Hore, Mealamu, Elliot, Woodcock, Afoa, Tialata, Mackintosh, Schwalger, Williams, Thorn, Boric, Eaton, Ross
Loose Forwards: Thompson, Kaino, Read, Lauaki, McCaw, So'oialo, Scott Waldrom
Backs: Cowan, Weepu, Ellis, Carter, Donald, Rokocoko, Sivivatu, Gear, Tuitavake, Kahui, Nonu, Smith, Toeava, Muliaina, Jane

Considered Wyatt Crockett but I feel that Mackintosh and Schwalger will get the nod as the fourth and fifth props. I suppose Ben Franks is also in the frame but would be very surprised if he made the trip. Hika Elliot is my third hooker though Corey Flynn and even Dane Coles will be in the reckoning.

The locks were difficult to select. Williams, Thorn and Boric are certainties but the fourth and fifth choices will be interesting. Would be surprised if Eaton wasn't one of them, though the fifth selection could be anyone - Jeremy Thrush, Ross Filipo, Tom Donnelly, Isaac Ross, etc - I've gone with Ross but am not particularly confident that'll be the case.

I choose Lauaki ahead of Messam though hope I'm proven wrong. A specialist second openside flanker to McCaw will be chosen and I personally see Messam as a better player at blindside, or if necessary, at number eight so don't see him being selected to cover at number seven either. For that second openside I've chosen Scott Waldrom.

As for the backs, I can only fit in one spot for either Gear or Wulf and am 75% sure Hosea Gear will get the nod. Ellis over Mathewson but only just.

 

[Somerset]

My squad was pretty close to the one announced this morning - Corey Flynn instead of Hika Elliot, Ben Franks over John Schwalger and Messam over Lauaki, which I almost put anyone, were the three I choose otherwise.

 

[Somerset]

Final Points Table:

1 BoyBrumby 85.67
2 SmytheNZ 82.33
3 Somerset 79.33
4 HeathyD 73.33
5 Edmunds 63.33
6 Vimes 48.00

Congrats to Brumby, who was so far ahead that even tipping the final incorrectly couldn't knock him off first spot. Voltman finishes in second just ahead of myself, while Heath rounds off the top four.