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Air New Zealand Cup (NPC) 2008 - Discussion and Prediction League
- Thread starter HeathDavisSpeed
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Somerset
Cricketer Of The Year
Surprise, surprise; Wellington take the Shield. 27-0 and it really could've been more - unusually high handling errors from both sides, Wellington in particular. Hardly mattered as they scored whats now their customary breakaway tries, though matched those with a few really good team efforts after applying the pressure to the Auckland defensive line. I was definitely hoping Auckland would retain it, though Wellington fully deserve to take it back to the capital. How anyone is going to stop them this season is beyond me - although Carter, McCaw, etc back in red and black colours might make things interesting.
Somerset
Cricketer Of The Year
Quick few words on last weekend's games before round nine kicks off tomorrow (well, tonight now). I didn't see the Southland vs Tasman game though with a scoreling of 6-3 that was probably a good thing. Also haven't caught up with the Harbour match though it epitimises their season losing, at home, to Northland. Otago vs Taranaki was a great game IMO - Otago dominating the first half, Taranaki the second. Eaton and the Taranaki second five eight were particularly prominent in overturning a big half time deficit. Counties deserved to beat an aweful Manawatu side - and if Dean Cummins had actually converted the relatively straight forward kicks at goal presented to him, Counties might've won by even more points. Canterbury and Wellington with easy enough victories, though neither played particularly well to be honest. And Hawkes Bay, who must now be set for a home semi final, were impressive against Waikato.
Smudge
Hall of Fame Member
Bit of a moan I had about Otago rugby on another thread:
That Friday night performance - or at least what I saw of it inbetween watching the Alex Park and Forbury Park trots - was spineless/gutless/whatever abject adjective you want to throw in there. But was I surprised? No.
Where do the problems start? Well, it's more a case of "when". The "when" being 1996-1998, when professional rugby was a fledgling business and Otago, strangely enough, was on top of their game, storming through to dominate the 1998 NPC. But while that was happening, what was going on behind the scenes? Nothing. The succession planning from the Otago union has been nothing short of pathetic - whether it was a case of not clicking about the priorities of young rugby players in this new environment or whether it was a case of sitting on their hands, I don't know. But what I do know is what has been laid in front of Otago fans over the last 10 years. Which, bar a useful season or two, has been ****.
There's no doubt the University of Otago was a massive boon for the union in attracting young, intelligent rugby players (and even the not so intelligent ones like Marc Ellis) in the last 50 years, and that was great - regardless of the bleating from Hawke's Bay fans about us stealing their players. You should have had a decent tertiary instutition in your province, then maybe you might not have lost them in the first place? But as soon as the landscape of professional rugby changed, Otago needed to evolve with it, but, for whatever reason, they didn't.
Yes, there were the likes of the Otago Institute Of Sport set up as early as 1998, but all that apparently succeeded in attracting was local players from the local high schools (Carl Hayman is one graduate who springs to mind). While under-the-table scholarships might have been going on at Otago in the early 1990s, these should have been ramped up in the professional era, offering the brightest minds in Otago rugby a rugby contract ALONG with a fully-paid scholarship (course fees at least) for a three-to-four year degree.
Couple that with Southern Man's (yes, the Southern Man of this very Cricket Web parish) pertinent complaint about not retaining local players and you can see why we're in the mess we're in.
The coaching has hardly been of the highest quality either - the biggest ****-up of all was the charmed existence of Greg Cooper. What does it say to young, hard-working club coaches, when a coaching novice gets handed the rep assignments on a silver platter? And what did he manage to do? Drive away hard-working players in droves and play some of the most depressing style of rugby I've seen from Otago/Highlanders sides in years. Glenn Moore is a step in the right direction - a hard-nosed bugger whose players actually respect and want to play for, but Steve Martin seems too polite, nice and - well, insipid.
I have few qualms with Richard Reid too - he's a step up from the aloof Russell Gray who looked stately in his winter overcoat wandering around Carisbrook and that's about it - but the whole administration has been working away from their strengths as well. I've moaned about this in the past as well, but the union, in all their infinite wisdom, binned the Student Ticket/Beer/Bus deals with the student pubs for several years, driving away a massive core of their average crowd. It's hard enough to get out to Carisbrook from North Dunedin if you don't have a car without having these deals - which the pubs understandably loved - withdrawn. Add the boring pattern of play and the clear lack of heart from all players in the Otago team bar - say Newby, Donnelly and ... that's about it - and is it any wonder we are greeted with the sorry spectacle of 2000 turning up to an Otago match?
Something is rotten in Otago rugby - nay, a lot is rotten - but it's not too late. Play the new stadium/long-term education-employment aspects/balanced lifestyle card as often as possible to prospective Otago players; ****, even offer an overseas province sabbatical with, perhaps, Castres (and their ex-Otago players), for young players, just anything, for ****'s sake. And whatever you do, keep All Blacks like Adam Thomson in the province for as long as possible. Young players want to see clear pathways in place.
That Friday night performance - or at least what I saw of it inbetween watching the Alex Park and Forbury Park trots - was spineless/gutless/whatever abject adjective you want to throw in there. But was I surprised? No.
Where do the problems start? Well, it's more a case of "when". The "when" being 1996-1998, when professional rugby was a fledgling business and Otago, strangely enough, was on top of their game, storming through to dominate the 1998 NPC. But while that was happening, what was going on behind the scenes? Nothing. The succession planning from the Otago union has been nothing short of pathetic - whether it was a case of not clicking about the priorities of young rugby players in this new environment or whether it was a case of sitting on their hands, I don't know. But what I do know is what has been laid in front of Otago fans over the last 10 years. Which, bar a useful season or two, has been ****.
There's no doubt the University of Otago was a massive boon for the union in attracting young, intelligent rugby players (and even the not so intelligent ones like Marc Ellis) in the last 50 years, and that was great - regardless of the bleating from Hawke's Bay fans about us stealing their players. You should have had a decent tertiary instutition in your province, then maybe you might not have lost them in the first place? But as soon as the landscape of professional rugby changed, Otago needed to evolve with it, but, for whatever reason, they didn't.
Yes, there were the likes of the Otago Institute Of Sport set up as early as 1998, but all that apparently succeeded in attracting was local players from the local high schools (Carl Hayman is one graduate who springs to mind). While under-the-table scholarships might have been going on at Otago in the early 1990s, these should have been ramped up in the professional era, offering the brightest minds in Otago rugby a rugby contract ALONG with a fully-paid scholarship (course fees at least) for a three-to-four year degree.
Couple that with Southern Man's (yes, the Southern Man of this very Cricket Web parish) pertinent complaint about not retaining local players and you can see why we're in the mess we're in.
The coaching has hardly been of the highest quality either - the biggest ****-up of all was the charmed existence of Greg Cooper. What does it say to young, hard-working club coaches, when a coaching novice gets handed the rep assignments on a silver platter? And what did he manage to do? Drive away hard-working players in droves and play some of the most depressing style of rugby I've seen from Otago/Highlanders sides in years. Glenn Moore is a step in the right direction - a hard-nosed bugger whose players actually respect and want to play for, but Steve Martin seems too polite, nice and - well, insipid.
I have few qualms with Richard Reid too - he's a step up from the aloof Russell Gray who looked stately in his winter overcoat wandering around Carisbrook and that's about it - but the whole administration has been working away from their strengths as well. I've moaned about this in the past as well, but the union, in all their infinite wisdom, binned the Student Ticket/Beer/Bus deals with the student pubs for several years, driving away a massive core of their average crowd. It's hard enough to get out to Carisbrook from North Dunedin if you don't have a car without having these deals - which the pubs understandably loved - withdrawn. Add the boring pattern of play and the clear lack of heart from all players in the Otago team bar - say Newby, Donnelly and ... that's about it - and is it any wonder we are greeted with the sorry spectacle of 2000 turning up to an Otago match?
Something is rotten in Otago rugby - nay, a lot is rotten - but it's not too late. Play the new stadium/long-term education-employment aspects/balanced lifestyle card as often as possible to prospective Otago players; ****, even offer an overseas province sabbatical with, perhaps, Castres (and their ex-Otago players), for young players, just anything, for ****'s sake. And whatever you do, keep All Blacks like Adam Thomson in the province for as long as possible. Young players want to see clear pathways in place.
Somerset
Cricketer Of The Year
Had a good read of your comments a few days ago - it provides a critical but honest summary of Otago rugby. Words like spinless and gutless do sum up their effort against Waikato - who have hardly been in vintage form themselves this season. Their performance against Counties Manukau at Mt Smart stadium on Thursday night in about round five was even worse, while I wouldn't be surprised if the Lions wake up from last week's struggle against Tasman to post a cricket score this weekend.
So Otago will inevitably lose to Wellington and finish about twelfth, ahead of Manwatu and Counties. For a Super 14 base, thats appalling. When you consider the lack of quality in some sides this year, it could've been worse too. Remember also that they were fortunate to steal four points from Southland with Noakes' extra time penalty coming about because of Southland's inability to put the ball into touch after the siren in week one.
And as you mention, theres hardly an abundance of quality players coming through the ranks. Newby, Setephano, Hesketh, Horton and Donnelly are about the only ones I've rated this season. Newby's leaving after the final round this weekend anyway so there goes a heap of experience.
Somerset
Cricketer Of The Year
Moving on from criticising southern rugby... 
Round nine of the competition was by far the best from my perspective. The Thursday night game was an even tussle, with the Bay of Plenty grabbing an 18 point lead but running out of gas and somehow holding on for a two point victory. Southland's handling of the ball let them down at key times, and it'll probably end up costing them a home quarter final. The Waikato vs Otago game was one way traffic, with Messam completely dominating the first half (scoring three tries, one from 50 metres) whilst injured - with a 25 point half time lead he was subbed at the break. Nice to see Anesi back for Waikato. Bruce continued his good form, while as I mentioned above, Messam was outstanding.
Counties Manukau were absolutely robbed of a victory against Taranaki, costing me a couple of points in the prediction competition - so not happy at all. Not sure if theres any highlights available, but with Counties leading by seven points and 30 seconds remaining, Scott Waldrom knocked the ball on cold - no call from the touch judge (who was about five metres away) and Taranaki end up scoring a converted try. It was a really harsh blow for Counties, who defended brilliantly in the second half. Lavea was instrumental in leading the side around the track. Still shaking my head at that call though.
Harbour vs Auckland was pretty average stuff. Good comeback from the Shore boys after trailing by 26 points early in the second spell. Auckland went to sleep and although Harbour were awarded a few controversial tries, they dominated the final half hour. I'll say it again, Toeava is not a first five - I'd prefer to see Moa there. Tasman played their best rugby of the season against a subdued Wellington side and actually led with 10 minutes to go. The yellow card of Kahn Fotuali'i - a VERY average and unnecessary call IMO that ruined Tasman's chances - basically stuffed them up and Wellington cantered home. Wierd final passage of play that went for four minutes after the siren as neither side wanted the ball to be dead with both looking for a bonus point - which Tasman deservedly scored.
Worst game of the weekend was at AMI Stadium with Canterbury and Hawkes Bay. Big early lead for the home side shut the Magpies out of the game. Second half was dire. I'm yet to watch the Northland vs Manawatu match on Sunday afternoon but looks as though Northland carried on from their efforts at North Harbour stadium a week earlier with a solid victory.
Round nine of the competition was by far the best from my perspective. The Thursday night game was an even tussle, with the Bay of Plenty grabbing an 18 point lead but running out of gas and somehow holding on for a two point victory. Southland's handling of the ball let them down at key times, and it'll probably end up costing them a home quarter final. The Waikato vs Otago game was one way traffic, with Messam completely dominating the first half (scoring three tries, one from 50 metres) whilst injured - with a 25 point half time lead he was subbed at the break. Nice to see Anesi back for Waikato. Bruce continued his good form, while as I mentioned above, Messam was outstanding.
Counties Manukau were absolutely robbed of a victory against Taranaki, costing me a couple of points in the prediction competition - so not happy at all. Not sure if theres any highlights available, but with Counties leading by seven points and 30 seconds remaining, Scott Waldrom knocked the ball on cold - no call from the touch judge (who was about five metres away) and Taranaki end up scoring a converted try. It was a really harsh blow for Counties, who defended brilliantly in the second half. Lavea was instrumental in leading the side around the track. Still shaking my head at that call though.
Harbour vs Auckland was pretty average stuff. Good comeback from the Shore boys after trailing by 26 points early in the second spell. Auckland went to sleep and although Harbour were awarded a few controversial tries, they dominated the final half hour. I'll say it again, Toeava is not a first five - I'd prefer to see Moa there. Tasman played their best rugby of the season against a subdued Wellington side and actually led with 10 minutes to go. The yellow card of Kahn Fotuali'i - a VERY average and unnecessary call IMO that ruined Tasman's chances - basically stuffed them up and Wellington cantered home. Wierd final passage of play that went for four minutes after the siren as neither side wanted the ball to be dead with both looking for a bonus point - which Tasman deservedly scored.
Worst game of the weekend was at AMI Stadium with Canterbury and Hawkes Bay. Big early lead for the home side shut the Magpies out of the game. Second half was dire. I'm yet to watch the Northland vs Manawatu match on Sunday afternoon but looks as though Northland carried on from their efforts at North Harbour stadium a week earlier with a solid victory.
Somerset
Cricketer Of The Year
Points Table after week nine:
Brumby extends his lead with a week of the round robin remaining. I almost picked the Counties result correct, which would've closed the gap a bit. Looks like a race for second spot now, with Voltman closing in on me after tiping a BOP victory.
Somerset
Cricketer Of The Year
Forgot to mention it last week but any views on the NZRU's decision reversal to drop Tasman and Northland? Whilst I'm pleased that both sides will still be part of the competition, personally I think its a sign that the rugby union should never have threatened to drop them in the first place. Nothing has changed with regards to financial viability and player development in the areas so it appears as though they've carved into the pressure placed upon them by the two unions - and the threat of Northland in particular threatening to take action. Ironically I've now heard that Marlborough are less than happy about the decision to include Tasman (and that seven of their eight clubs have expressed a desire to drop Marlborough back into heartland championship rugby) - I guess you can't please everyone!
S.P. Fleming
U19 Cricketer
Im so exited about this Wellington team and I really hope they can transfer it into the hurricanes for next year. The loose trio is looking so gun from the games i get to see ove in Australia.
I agree that Otago rugby is at a huge low and stuff needs to be done to change that.
I agree that Otago rugby is at a huge low and stuff needs to be done to change that.
Somerset
Cricketer Of The Year
Final round before the quarter finals. I'm picking the top eight, in order, to be Wellington, Canterbury, Hawkes Bay, BOP, Southland, Auckland, Waikato and Tasman.
Tough call on Taranaki, who are sixth at the moment but face a Waikato team with a back line full of All Blacks. Can't see Northland upsetting Auckland but a victory would be enough to push them into the top eight rather than Auckland.
Tough call on Taranaki, who are sixth at the moment but face a Waikato team with a back line full of All Blacks. Can't see Northland upsetting Auckland but a victory would be enough to push them into the top eight rather than Auckland.
Somerset
Cricketer Of The Year
So, a week after criticising Otago they put in their best performance of the season and beat Wellington...go figure. 
Admittedly Wellington had a weakened side; Gear, Weepu, Jane all not even in the 22 but even so they didn't look like a side who had previous won nine games out of nine. Hesketh must surely be in line for more action in Super 14 this year, I think hes now scored in about four or five games consecutively. Nice way for Newby to go off too, after what has otherwise been a dreadful season.
Thursday night was fantastic, Waikato just getting the victory over Taranaki - plenty of action with both sides producing an entertaining display. Donald went off injured (bet Henry and co. are thrilled with that) and apparently is in doubt for the quarter final this week, as too is Messam. Sivivatu set up a few brilliant tries but also had some awful lapses. I felt for Taranaki, who looked certain to win with 15 minutes to go, as the last minute try to Sivivatu appeared to have robbed them of a top eight spot. They've deserved their spot in the quarter finals to be honest - I predicted them to struggle this year after the first few rounds and was proved wrong.
Canterbury and Hawkes Bay smashed Southland and the Bay of Plenty respectively with pretty emphatic second half efforts. Tuali'i out for the rest of the campaign though. Tasman were brilliant in the second half against Manawatu (ironically, given they played into a ridiculously strong breeze) after wasting opportunities in the first 40 minutes with the advantage. Kade Poki with one of the tries of the season. Didn't see Harbour play Counties but sounds as though both sides went out with the objective to throw the ball around.
Finally, Auckland. Oh dear - the side that went unbeaten in 2007, eleventh on the table in 2008. To be honest, they didn't deserve to make the top eight. Its been an aweful year for them, struggling against Poverty Bay pre-season, losing to Counties and Northland, barely beating Southland and, with the Shield on the line, getting thumped by Wellington. Great time to be a Blues supporter.
Admittedly Wellington had a weakened side; Gear, Weepu, Jane all not even in the 22 but even so they didn't look like a side who had previous won nine games out of nine. Hesketh must surely be in line for more action in Super 14 this year, I think hes now scored in about four or five games consecutively. Nice way for Newby to go off too, after what has otherwise been a dreadful season.Thursday night was fantastic, Waikato just getting the victory over Taranaki - plenty of action with both sides producing an entertaining display. Donald went off injured (bet Henry and co. are thrilled with that) and apparently is in doubt for the quarter final this week, as too is Messam. Sivivatu set up a few brilliant tries but also had some awful lapses. I felt for Taranaki, who looked certain to win with 15 minutes to go, as the last minute try to Sivivatu appeared to have robbed them of a top eight spot. They've deserved their spot in the quarter finals to be honest - I predicted them to struggle this year after the first few rounds and was proved wrong.
Canterbury and Hawkes Bay smashed Southland and the Bay of Plenty respectively with pretty emphatic second half efforts. Tuali'i out for the rest of the campaign though. Tasman were brilliant in the second half against Manawatu (ironically, given they played into a ridiculously strong breeze) after wasting opportunities in the first 40 minutes with the advantage. Kade Poki with one of the tries of the season. Didn't see Harbour play Counties but sounds as though both sides went out with the objective to throw the ball around.
Finally, Auckland. Oh dear - the side that went unbeaten in 2007, eleventh on the table in 2008. To be honest, they didn't deserve to make the top eight. Its been an aweful year for them, struggling against Poverty Bay pre-season, losing to Counties and Northland, barely beating Southland and, with the Shield on the line, getting thumped by Wellington. Great time to be a Blues supporter.
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HeathDavisSpeed
Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Just got back from my NPC tour of the North Island (2008)
Waikato vs. Taranaki
Counties vs. Harbour
Auckland vs. Northland
Round about 90 points in each of the first two games, but the highlight was undoubtably the Auckland/Northland game. The Northland supporters at Eden Park easily outshone the uninterested Auckland fans. If you can judge a team by the quality of their fans, Auckland should have finished last. Hardly raised a cheer until the last 5 minutes.
A beautiful end to the game as well. Great stuff.
What a weekend of rugby. How anyone can slate the NPC, I don't know. The entertainment was vastly superior to anything I've seen in the Super 10/12/14/16/18/etc.
Waikato vs. Taranaki
Counties vs. Harbour
Auckland vs. Northland
Round about 90 points in each of the first two games, but the highlight was undoubtably the Auckland/Northland game. The Northland supporters at Eden Park easily outshone the uninterested Auckland fans. If you can judge a team by the quality of their fans, Auckland should have finished last. Hardly raised a cheer until the last 5 minutes.
A beautiful end to the game as well. Great stuff.
What a weekend of rugby. How anyone can slate the NPC, I don't know. The entertainment was vastly superior to anything I've seen in the Super 10/12/14/16/18/etc.
~DanVettoriFan~
School Boy/Girl Cricketer
Southland ftw!! We've got a rather good chance on the weekend 
Perm
Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Excellent post, agree with all of it. Have been thinking about it lately too, and I miss those days of my childhood when Otago were a force. I remember when we dicked Waikato in that semi-final, I remember Latta's tears when he gave away that penalty, I saw Colin Hawke's abysmal displays in those Auckland games. Rugby is a way of life in Otago, but it's on it's deathbed.
HeathDavisSpeed
Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Waikato's defence was shocking against a not-very-good Taranaki. Hawke's Bay are fairly solid (except when playing Canterbury), so a fourth straight loss for Waikato to the Magpies seems likely.
Waikato will need Donald, Messam and Kahui 100% fit.
Waikato will need Donald, Messam and Kahui 100% fit.
Somerset
Cricketer Of The Year
Sounds like a top weekend.
Agreed with the last line, the competition has been thoroughly criticised this year but I've personally really enjoyed the games in recent weeks in particular.Although Donald looks very unlikely to play, and Messam is also uncertain, I wouldn't be writing off Waikato even though they've had a poor record against Hawkes Bay over the last couple of years. If they can sort their defence out I reckon the match could go either way. They certainly shouldn't have too many issues threatening on attack with Sivivatu and Kahui amongst the backline.