*Official* Tennis Thread

[Jono]

You're obviously right about Ancic, but can I ask why you don't like/rate him?

I think he's a pretty cool player to watch.

Good looking chap too

 

[Jono]

Soderling pissing off Nadal at Wimbledon last year:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UzZdBx-deo&NR=1

Actually missed this match and never saw this. Was pretty funny, he really had a go at Nadal there, but when you do that you actually have to win IMO, otherwise you look foolish, and Nadal won the 5th. I like both players so am not taking sides (I hate watching Soderling PLAY, but he's gun to bet on) but I believe that pissing off Nadal will always backfire rather than work.

 

[Simon]

Because he's never won anything and never looked like winning anything. He had a couple of solid results about four years and everyone started getting over excited. Results, form, ability etc... in no way suggest he is the 6th most likely player to win Wimbledon this year.

 

[Jono]

He's got a good reputation on grass though right? I'm not sure if thats results based, or simply just reputation for no reason though.

I agree with you in general that his odds are odd, particularly since he only just returned from injury this year. I am a fan of his though for some reason, just like the cut of his jib.

 

[Simon]

He's got a 34-12 record on Grass on the ATP tour with two titles (I guess thats two more than Henman won on grass) but its not like hes dominated.

Thought I'd look through his results on grass and work out why he's so highly rated on this surface.

2008
Queens - Lost third round to Gasquet after beating two clay courters
2007
none
2006
Wimledon - Lost quarters to Federer in straight sets only top 50 players he beat were Almagro (47) & Djokovic (39)
's-Hertogenbosch - Won title beating 128th ranked Jan Hernych in final. Only top 50 players he beat were Baghdatis (17) & Santoro (44)
2005
Wimbledon - Lost round of 16 toclay courter Feliciano Lopez (ranked 33), only top 150 player he beat was Monfils (83)
's-Hertogenbosch - Won the title, highest ranked player he faced was Michael Llodra (65) in the final
Queens - Lost third round to Gasquet, had a bye in the first round and then beat Hernych.
2004
Wimbledon - Lost semi final to Roddick, did beat Henman in the quarters but didnt face another top 25 player other than these two.
's-Hertogenbosch - Lost semi to clay courter Guillermo Coria, beat Sjeng Shalken first round but no one else he beat was ranked top 50.
Queens - Lost third round to Roddick. Todd Martin (70) was his next highest ranked opponent.
2003
Wimbledon - Lost first round to 76th ranked Rafael Nadal.
's-Hertogenbosch - Lost first round to 91st ranked Christophe Rochus
Queens - Lost third round to 81st ranked Anthony Dupis. Did beat Schricaphan (11) in the 2nd round.
2002
Wimbledon - Lost 2nd round to 80th ranked Jan Vacek after beating Roger Federer (9) in the first round.

Apart from Beating Federer in 2002 and then some good results in 2004 its hard to get excited looking at that. I wouldn't back him to win Wimbledon with someone elses money at 10,000/1

 

[Jono]

I wonder if his odds blew out after his match vs. Gasquet? Because he was pretty much squashed despite being favourite against a player who did alright at last year's Wimbledon until he met Roger.

 

[Jono]

Wimbledon Mens

Roger Federer 2.00 Bet
Rafael Nadal 3.00 Bet
Novak Djokovic 4.50 Bet
Andrew Murray 19.00 Bet
Andy Roddick 19.00 Bet
David Nalbandian 29.00 Bet
Mario Ancic 41.00 Bet
Richard Gasquet 41.00 Bet
Ivo Karlovic 41.00 Bet
Lleyton Hewitt 67.00 Bet
Marcos Baghdatis 81.00 Bet
Tomas Berdych 81.00 Bet
James Blake 81.00 Bet
Robin Soderling 81.00 Bet
Fernando Gonzalez 81.00 Bet
Nikolay Davydenko 101.00 Bet
Nicolas Mahut 101.00 Bet
Ivan Ljubicic 101.00 Bet
Marat Safin 101.00 Bet
Gael Monfils 101.00 Bet

I really should have got on Nadal @ 7.00 before the French. I was so close to doing so. Can't believe he's shortened so much (well I can) but still $4 is a huge drop. I mean what's he done THAT differently? He was always going to win the French. His Djokovic win was the only one that was iffy, and whilst him winning his first grass tournament was big, not $4 worth.

 

[Johnners]

Federers unconvincing form probably has a lot to do with it as well.

 

[Simon]

Sportstab has Nalbandian at $51, big difference there, also getting $3.25 on Nadal.

While centrebet has:

Federer $1.90
Nadal $3.50
Djokovic $4.50
Roddick $41
Murray $51
Karlovic $81
Gasquet $101
Hewitt $101
Ancic $151 (thats more realistic)
Nalbandian $151
Others $151

 

[James90]

So jewish. Even if you took out all the other competitors, Federer 1/1, Nadal 2/1 and Djokovic 9/2 is pretty stingy.

Betfair offering:
Federer $2.16
Nadal $3.80
Djokovic $6.00
Roddick $40.00
...
Nalbandian $160.00

Why anyone would use anything other than betfair for these sort of markets is beyond me. Even just to back someone like Roddick and Nalbanian and to lay it off later.

PS. If you do choose to join betfair let me know first so I can get the referral

 

[Jono]

How can you justify a $131 difference between Bet365 and Betfair with regards to Nalbandian, wow thats mammoth.

 

[James90]

Bet365 is an English bookie. Betfair, regular people like you and me set the prices in a market type thing with buyers and sellers. Hence why it's so much better most of the time. Company just takes 5% commissions on profit but when choice bets are $2 on both sides it's still worth 1.95 as opposed to the 1.91 that bookies give you. Bookies lay the **** out of future markets as well so you've gotta go to Betfair for them.

 

[Burgey]

Does anyone realistically think Roddick can step up at Wimbledon this year? Of those at juicy odds, I'd have thought he maybe had a game that could win on grass, but not sure.

 

[Jono]

Bet365 is an English bookie. Betfair, regular people like you and me set the prices in a market type thing with buyers and sellers. Hence why it's so much better most of the time. Company just takes 5% commissions on profit but when choice bets are $2 on both sides it's still worth 1.95 as opposed to the 1.91 that bookies give you. Bookies lay the **** out of future markets as well so you've gotta go to Betfair for them.

Haha yeah I recently studied a Constitutional Law case on Betfair, and how TAB and the rest were pissed off at them and tried to argue that by allowing them into Australia it was against the Aus Const.

I've thought about jumping on them for ages, but I love live betting. Does betfair allow that?

 

[James90]

Other tasty Betfair offers:

Ancic $190
Hewitt $270
Davydenko $360
Blake $520
Safin $770

 

[James90]

Haha yeah I recently studied a Constitutional Law case on Betfair, and how TAB and the rest were pissed off at them and tried to argue that by allowing them into Australia it was against the Aus Const.

I've thought about jumping on them for ages, but I love live betting. Does betfair allow that?

Absolutely. It's especially good because you can see the prices fluctuate online instead of having to ring up for a quote. You still have to ring up to put a live bet on though.

 

[Simon]

Does anyone realistically think Roddick can step up at Wimbledon this year? Of those at juicy odds, I'd have thought he maybe had a game that could win on grass, but not sure.

No, top three are too good for him on any surface. Hard court is still his best chance of winning more slams.

 

[James90]

Here's my referral code if you're interested

HLEPWTE6F

 

[pasag]

So jewish.

Wtf?

 

[James90]

Apologies to the Jews in the audience. I'm sure you're not as stingy as Bet365.