**.....UNOFFICIAL.....** ASHES 2007 thread

[wpdavid]

It's quite likely that England will be stronger in 2006/7 than they were this year. S. Jones & KP should be established test cricketers, compared to the emergent players they have been this year, Bell or whoever is at 4 should score more than this year, and hopefully Harmison will have discovered some form or been replaced by someone who can contribute more consistently. The rest of the side, barring injuries, should be present and a bit more experienced.

 

[luckyeddie]

i dont know if Australia simply needs another McGrath type bowler, they just need a bowler who can step up & become a great spearhead he doesn't have to be a McGrath.....

You need a cutting edge, but it's vital that you have a man who can apply real pressure by drying up the runs. England are so fortunate that they have Flintoff, one of the few people who can perform both roles (simultaneously, whilst performing a handstand, drinking a beer and eating THREE - count them - burgers at once).

If McGrath retires, there goes half the effectiveness of his fellow opening bowler as well. He is THAT vital. Mind you, perhaps they'll just open with Warney.

 

[wpdavid]

The talk in 2004 was that we felt that we'd have a pretty decent chance of winning the Ashes in 2007, but I don't think many of us gave us a sniff this time.

As far as Australia being 'in tatters', no way. Warne will certainly be still up for it, Lee is bound to be a handful and perhaps Tait really will fulfil the potential people were talking about and start worrying the batsman as opposed to first slip. I just don't know about Glenn McGrath - I think perhaps the body's beginning to creak a bit too much - perhaps I smell a retirement before then, but if not, that's still an attack you dismiss at your peril.

The batting line-up will see a couple of changes, but wholesale? Hardly.

Agreed. My guess is that 9 or 10 of the current Aus side will play in 2006/7, but not last long beyond then. Maybe only 4 of this side (Ponting, Clarke, Katich & Tait) will be back in 2009.

 

[FaaipDeOiad]

I think the one area we will see experimentation is in the seam bowling. McGrath will play to the next world cup I think, but aside from him we have Lee, who is dedicated and can improve but isn't enough to lead an attack now, Tait, who is as talented as anyone but needs to mature a hell of a lot to be a major force in tests, and Gillespie and Kasprowicz who both look about done right now. I know most people here don't think much of Bracken, Lewis etc, but they're the guys who are doing well in Australian domestic cricket (aside from Tait and the older guys like Bichel) right now, so if Gillespie and Kasprowicz really are disposed of that's where we'll be looking.

It really is an interesting time in Australian cricket right now. We're not in a rebuilding phase just yet, but you have to consider the likelyhood of a series of retirements in the near future, and prepare for it. Despite the fact that Australia A just got ripped apart on a seamer in Pakistan today, I've got no worries about Australia's backup batsmen right now. As far as bowling goes... well there's potential but nobody who can just walk in and dominate right now, and importantly that's not just a background thing in case of a run of injuries now - with the decline of Gillespie and Kasprowicz it's an immediate issue as simple as "who opens with McGrath?".

We won't see wholesale changes, but expect a lot of use of the next line of Australian seamers in the VB series and so on next season.

 

[Magrat Garlick]

Agreed. My guess is that 9 or 10 of the current Aus side will play in 2006/7, but not last long beyond then. Maybe only 4 of this side (Ponting, Clarke, Katich & Tait) will be back in 2009.

And you're going for 5-0 Australia again, I trust?

Edit: Didn't see this post. My bad for making a sweeping statement!

 

[wpdavid]

And you're going for 5-0 Australia again, I trust?

Edit: Didn't see this post. My bad for making a sweeping statement!

Don't worry - and I only forecast 4-0 anyway. My excuse is McGrath's injury and I'm sticking to it. But you'll notice I'm avoiding the "Ashes predictions" thread.

 

[marc71178]

figures dont tell the whole story with him, if you would have watched the entire series you would know Lee bowled pretty well in every innings except for the 1st innings at edgbagston & TB...

No, he bowled well in patches.

He also delivered a lot of tripe, hence the 40+ average and 4+ economy rate.

 

[sqwerty]

The talk in 2004 was that we felt that we'd have a pretty decent chance of winning the Ashes in 2007, but I don't think many of us gave us a sniff this time.

As far as Australia being 'in tatters', no way. Warne will certainly be still up for it, Lee is bound to be a handful and perhaps Tait really will fulfil the potential people were talking about and start worrying the batsman as opposed to first slip. I just don't know about Glenn McGrath - I think perhaps the body's beginning to creak a bit too much - perhaps I smell a retirement before then, but if not, that's still an attack you dismiss at your peril.

The batting line-up will see a couple of changes, but wholesale? Hardly.

I don't believe McGrath is creaking yet. Yeah he looked less threatening in the last few test matches but he was coming back from very recent injuries and SURELY was nowhere near 100% fit.

You only need to look at what he did in the first test (slope or no slope) to see where he really is at this stage of his career. Give him a decent recovery period and I'd expect him to be back to where he was then

 

[sqwerty]

It's quite likely that England will be stronger in 2006/7 than they were this year. S. Jones & KP should be established test cricketers, compared to the emergent players they have been this year, Bell or whoever is at 4 should score more than this year, and hopefully Harmison will have discovered some form or been replaced by someone who can contribute more consistently. The rest of the side, barring injuries, should be present and a bit more experienced.

There's no doubt England will get stronger over the next few years. They'll be even harder to beat in the next Ashes series on their own soil

 

[sqwerty]

I think the one area we will see experimentation is in the seam bowling. McGrath will play to the next world cup I think, but aside from him we have Lee, who is dedicated and can improve but isn't enough to lead an attack now, Tait, who is as talented as anyone but needs to mature a hell of a lot to be a major force in tests, and Gillespie and Kasprowicz who both look about done right now. I know most people here don't think much of Bracken, Lewis etc, but they're the guys who are doing well in Australian domestic cricket (aside from Tait and the older guys like Bichel) right now, so if Gillespie and Kasprowicz really are disposed of that's where we'll be looking.

It really is an interesting time in Australian cricket right now. We're not in a rebuilding phase just yet, but you have to consider the likelyhood of a series of retirements in the near future, and prepare for it. Despite the fact that Australia A just got ripped apart on a seamer in Pakistan today, I've got no worries about Australia's backup batsmen right now. As far as bowling goes... well there's potential but nobody who can just walk in and dominate right now, and importantly that's not just a background thing in case of a run of injuries now - with the decline of Gillespie and Kasprowicz it's an immediate issue as simple as "who opens with McGrath?".

We won't see wholesale changes, but expect a lot of use of the next line of Australian seamers in the VB series and so on next season.

agree

 

[sqwerty]

No, he bowled well in patches.

He also delivered a lot of tripe, hence the 40+ average and 4+ economy rate.

The main problem I have with Lee is that he is only threatening when he's bowling absolutely flat chat. If he's bowling in the high 80's he's just another trundler. He's only dangerous when he's in the mid 90's but it takes him half a spell to get there.

 

[marc71178]

To be fair, some of his quick spells were hard;y the most threatening.

 

[sqwerty]

To be fair, some of his quick spells were hard;y the most threatening.

yeah I know....but on other decks he'll be threatening......and he did trouble some with his pace on the slow English decks.

And ...........He still did bowl just about the best bouncer I've ever seen..........to a bloke who hit 158 and put him on his arsse.....after having him dropped on 15 when he did him (and first slip) for pace

He was unlucky on this tour. If you compare his stats to Freddie who brought his average right down after getting to bowl in the dark in the fifth test his numbers wouldn't have been much different.

 

[Scaly piscine]

He was unlucky on this tour. If you compare his stats to Freddie who brought his average right down after getting to bowl in the dark in the fifth test his numbers wouldn't have been much different.

Cobblers. Lee's main problem in Tests is he's frequently straight up and down and he got the figures he deserved (not helped by him not having much of an idea how to bowl with a non-moving ball either). You saw the resulting damage to Flintoff's stumps when Lee got one to move in, he simply didn't move the ball to any degree often enough. Look at Gillespie - didn't move the ball and so he got crashed all around the park. Then you've got someone like Simon Jones, no more accurate than Lee and a fair bit slower, but because he moves it he's been a huge threat.

 

[sqwerty]

Cobblers. Lee's main problem in Tests is he's frequently straight up and down and he got the figures he deserved (not helped by him not having much of an idea how to bowl with a non-moving ball either). You saw the resulting damage to Flintoff's stumps when Lee got one to move in, he simply didn't move the ball to any degree often enough. Look at Gillespie - didn't move the ball and so he got crashed all around the park. Then you've got someone like Simon Jones, no more accurate than Lee and a fair bit slower, but because he moves it he's been a huge threat.

whatever....Lee bowled some crap but he also bowled some good spells, just like Hoggard and Harmison. Jones and Flintoff were far more consistent. Lee put the scare through England in the second dig in the fourth test for one and he'll do it to other sides in future as well. He didn't swing it much in England but he has proven that he can in the past and most probably will again in the future if he works on it.

 

[archie mac]

History suggests England will win the next Ashes series, since WW1:

1926 England win back the Ashes
1928/29 England win in Aust. 4-1

1953 England win back the Ashes
1954/55 England win in Aust. 3-1

1977 England win back the Ashes
1978/79 England win in Aust. 5-1

1985 England win back the Ashes
1986/87 England win in Aust 2-1 the Poms were much the better team

 

[badgerhair]

The talk in 2004 was that we felt that we'd have a pretty decent chance of winning the Ashes in 2007, but I don't think many of us gave us a sniff this time.

I did. I reckoned we had about a one in four chance, which was a lot better than the previous one in four hundred. I couldn't see why the cricket England had played for the previous 18 months wasn't up to the required standard to compete seriously with Australia, and I'd got rather tired of the theory that it didn't count because it wasn't against Aus. And if I thought we could compete seriously, it follows that I thought we could win in a reasonable range of favourable cirumstances - eg an injury to a key Australian player.

As far as Australia being 'in tatters', no way. Warne will certainly be still up for it, Lee is bound to be a handful and perhaps Tait really will fulfil the potential people were talking about and start worrying the batsman as opposed to first slip. I just don't know about Glenn McGrath - I think perhaps the body's beginning to creak a bit too much - perhaps I smell a retirement before then, but if not, that's still an attack you dismiss at your peril.

The batting line-up will see a couple of changes, but wholesale? Hardly.

It might be dangerous for Australia to fixate on regaining the Ashes at the first opportunity. As you're hinting there, they could attempt to rely on essentially the same team, another year and half older. After all, those blokes have got the experience and the record to show for it. But they are now the ones bearing the scars of losing the Ashes, the ones who know that they are beatable, and England are the team full of players who only know Ashes success. Why pick the same old scarred veterans?

The South Africans in particular will study the videos of the Ashes series, and may well be able to exploit some of the same weaknesses. Nel can do the reverse swing thing, and if Smith has the nous to give the new ball to Langeveldt rather than Pollock, Hayden could be dead meat again. Langer, Ponting and Clarke will survive, but I don't hold out all that much hope for the others.

I'm not sure I'd put money on both McGrath and Warne playing in the next Ashes series either. I can see either one thinking that the chances of winning the 2006-7 series are actually worse than evens and feeling that it isn't worth the candle to drag those creaking limbs through another series which will almost inevitably not be as good as the one they've just played, even if they manage to regain the Ashes at the end of it. And if one goes, the other might well do the same, realising that the game is actually up.

None of which is meant to imply that Australia are about to turn into easy-beats or that England don't have problems of their own. But I would guess that things will start to change fairly rapidly. It will be a good year to have a sucessful Pura Cup season, anyway.

Cheers,

Mike, who couldn't post here during the series because it was too tense

 

[PY]

What's the news on the ticket allocation for 2007 guys?

I heard on the news that the number of tickets available to the English was going to be restricted? Is this a something-over-nothing or a tactic?

I don't have any opinions on it because I don't know enough about it but the news made it sound like a scandal and I have mates heading over so wouldn't mind knowing if anyone has any inside knowledge.

 

[PY]

Just read this (on front page of Cricinfo duh ).

Should be quite interesting to see how they get round the problems they are forecasting. And at the people taking up memberships at WACA just to get tickets, genius.

 

[Tomm NCCC]

Isnt this just a tad pre-mature?

Anyhoo I'm very pessemistic about our chances down under, The Aussies have shown incredible bouncebackability since september and will only get stronger whereas England looked woefull in Pakistan and had a bit of luck during the summer.