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Taking a punt

James_W

U19 Vice-Captain
Even a stopped clock gives the right time twice a day.

Richard's opinion:reality ratio way less than 50% to my way of thinking.
Haha that made me chuckle.

I think Richard gets a bit too much stick... some of what he says is questionable but alot of the time he does make good points. As a long time lurker, I think he's just dismissed without people reading his posts in too much detail most of the time.
 

fredfertang

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Not quite what Stumpski had in mind I don't think but David Steele in 1975 was a case of a punt that paid off
 

BoyBrumby

Englishman
Not quite what Stumpski had in mind I don't think but David Steele in 1975 was a case of a punt that paid off
Think you're right. My reading is he meant poor starts to test careers.

Alec Stewart, perhaps? Averaging 26.5 after 13 tests. Scored his first ton in his 14th test.
 

stumpski

International Captain
Well that, and players who hadn't even done much before they were first selected. Steele was an inspired pick but he was known as a consistent performer in county cricket (and had been seriously considered for selection in 1972 I believe). I've no idea what Atapattu's record in domestic cricket was before his debut, but I would guess he hadn't played that much.
 

Uppercut

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Does that make it wrong? He has made a point, substantiated it and given examples.

The fact that he is a broken record, so to speak shows a remarkable consistency of thought which is more often than not, right.
There's nothing especially wrong in what he says, other than that he sometimes takes it a little too far for me. I would tend to assume that most players will take a few games to adjust to test cricket however ready they are for selection, whereas Dicko sees not playing well in one's first few games as a sign of being underprepared.

I think we've just heard it all before is all.

As for punts that didn't come off, i'll go with Sajid Mahmood. There was nothing in his record to suggest he was even a half-decent international bowler, and as events conspired it turned out that he was indeed not even a half-decent international bowler.
 

BoyBrumby

Englishman
One who rewarded selectors' faith was one SR Waugh. Didn't crack three figures until his 27th test. His medium pace arguably bought him a little time, but it's doubtful a player would've had so long to establish themselves now, although if memory serves he was actually replaced by his twin at one stage.
 

fredfertang

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
One who rewarded selectors' faith was one SR Waugh. Didn't crack three figures until his 27th test. His medium pace arguably bought him a little time, but it's doubtful a player would've had so long to establish themselves now, although if memory serves he was actually replaced by his twin at one stage.
Gatt was similar wasn't he? Obviously not as good but he took ages to get his first test ton
 

BoyBrumby

Englishman
Gatt was similar wasn't he? Obviously not as good but he took ages to get his first test ton
So it would seem, yes. I have to be honest and say my memory doesn't quite go back far enough to know if Gatt was dropped before he made his maiden century, but he always had a very correct batting style which probably pleased any purists on the panel and I imagine being the captain of the dominant county didn't harm his chances either. I think pretty much every England-qualifed Middlesex player (except poor old Yosser Hughes) got a go in the test side in the 80s at some point.
 

Pratters

Cricket, Lovely Cricket
Taking a punt with the punt coming off deserves great credit. The latest example is that of Kamran Khan. He was picked out of club games for the Rajasthan Royals and is doing his reputation no harm. Taking a punt is highly risky and it may not pay off. Yet when people decide to take a punt and then they succeed at it, nothing like it.
 

BoyBrumby

Englishman
Taking a punt with the punt coming off deserves great credit. The latest example is that of Kamran Khan. He was picked out of club games for the Rajasthan Royals and is doing his reputation no harm. Taking a punt is highly risky and it may not pay off. Yet when people decide to take a punt and then they succeed at it, nothing like it.
Spot on for my money.

If it were all about averages selectors wouldn't need more than the occasional glance at cricinfo.
 

Uppercut

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Spot on for my money.

If it were all about averages selectors wouldn't need more than the occasional glance at cricinfo.
I often wonder though, considering the horrendous proportion of wrong decisions selectors make, whether someone armed with nothing but numbers would actually have a higher success rate.
 

stumpski

International Captain
Taking a punt with the punt coming off deserves great credit. The latest example is that of Kamran Khan. He was picked out of club games for the Rajasthan Royals and is doing his reputation no harm. Taking a punt is highly risky and it may not pay off. Yet when people decide to take a punt and then they succeed at it, nothing like it.

Well Pakistan have plenty of previous at this sort of thing of course. Is Wasim Akram the best example? He was picked for a tour of New Zealand after just a couple of matches - although tbf he had taken 13 wickets in them - and Waqar Younis was picked in very similar circumstances. But for every success story there are plenty more who are discarded after one or two matches and seldom heard of again.
 

BoyBrumby

Englishman
I often wonder though, considering the horrendous proportion of wrong decisions selectors make, whether someone armed with nothing but numbers would actually have a higher success rate.
Frankly one suspects a blind, incontinent drunk sticking a pin randomly into the counties' squads might have a higher success rate too.

But it cuts both ways too; lots of Hail Marys have gone **** up but equally a lot of players with very good county records have been found wanting at the highest level too. Hick & Ramps are the obvious examples but I suppose one could also now include Shah in that bracket too.
 

Pratters

Cricket, Lovely Cricket
Well Pakistan have plenty of previous at this sort of thing of course. Is Wasim Akram the best example? He was picked for a tour of New Zealand after just a couple of matches - although tbf he had taken 13 wickets in them - and Waqar Younis was picked in very similar circumstances. But for every success story there are plenty more who are discarded after one or two matches and seldom heard of again.
Pakistan doesn't deserve great credit for taking punts because a large proportion of them have failed. This is different from Imran Khan who gave chances to Wasim, had faith in a young Inzamam. Taking punts have a chance of failure but it is not merely luck when punts succeed. It is creditable and due appreciation must be bestowed on those who gave the punt.
 

rivera213

U19 Vice-Captain
Most don't work, but some can result in being great. important, long-term players (they've been mentioned already in this thread).
 

silentstriker

The Wheel is Forever
Taking a punt with the punt coming off deserves great credit. The latest example is that of Kamran Khan. He was picked out of club games for the Rajasthan Royals and is doing his reputation no harm. Taking a punt is highly risky and it may not pay off. Yet when people decide to take a punt and then they succeed at it, nothing like it.
In poker terms, making a bad bet means you made a bad bet whether you win or not. Thinking otherwise is the fastest way to losing your money. By definition, a longshot means most in their position will not succeed. So you keep throwing enough bodies, and one will stick - and lo' and behold - you're a genius.
 

Uppercut

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Frankly one suspects a blind, incontinent drunk sticking a pin randomly into the counties' squads might have a higher success rate too.

But it cuts both ways too; lots of Hail Marys have gone **** up but equally a lot of players with very good county records have been found wanting at the highest level too. Hick & Ramps are the obvious examples but I suppose one could also now include Shah in that bracket too.
Everyone remembers Hick and Ramps because they're the exception rather than the rule. Their continued failure had nothing to do with selectorial incompetence and everything to do with England being at an all-time low with regards to its overall cricketing quality. It's not as though Hick and Ramps were underperforming at a time when hordes of English cricketers with inept FC records were tearing Australia new orifices every two years. They were two of many English batsmen who weren't good enough for test cricket, and only more notable than any of the others because they happened to also be excellent at county cricket.
 

Pratters

Cricket, Lovely Cricket
In poker terms, making a bad bet means you made a bad bet whether you win or not. Thinking otherwise is the fastest way to losing your money. By definition, a longshot means most in their position will not succeed. So you keep throwing enough bodies, and one will stick - and lo' and behold - you're a genius.
This is not a poker game though. This is cricket where you have to identify talent. That talent may have initial failures but if you believe the talent is there, there is no harm persisting for a while.
 
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BoyBrumby

Englishman
Everyone remembers Hick and Ramps because they're the exception rather than the rule. Their continued failure had nothing to do with selectorial incompetence and everything to do with England being at an all-time low with regards to its overall cricketing quality. It's not as though Hick and Ramps were underperforming at a time when hordes of English cricketers with inept FC records were tearing Australia new orifices every two years. They were two of many English batsmen who weren't good enough for test cricket, and only more notable than any of the others because they happened to also be excellent at county cricket.
They're exceptional only is as much as their county records are so very good. Lots of other players have been called up based on county form and have been found short at the top. One could point to Ed Smith, Jon Lewis, Ian Ward, Rob Key, Jimmy Ormond or Owais himself. All were "demanding" selection with their FC form, but none really convinced.

Of course averages, runs & wickets must play a part, but real selectorial acumen comes from seeing beyond the brute stats. None of Trescothick, Vaughan, Flintoff, S Jones or Collingwood really had the first class careers to suggest they were test players upon their respective call-ups, but it's fair to say without them we wouldn't have regained the Ashes in 2005.
 

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