Steyn in the fourth innings

[Dissector]

South Africa has clearly struggled to win series in the last few years. One of their problems has been that Steyn has usually failed to fire in the fourth innings allowing England and India to pull off draws and Australia to pull off a win.

In the last couple of years Steyn averages over 50 in the fourth innings though earlier in his career he performed excellently in such situations.

Of course fourth innings are a small sample but I think he has had around half a dozen serious opportunities in the last two years without making much of an impact. I haven't watched most of these games so my question to those who have: is it just coincidence or does Steyn's bowling quality drop off in the fourth innings?

 

[smash84]

Steyn is a loser

P.S. What are the fourth inning averages of other ATG bowlers??

 

[Cabinet96]

It's weird. I noticed it recently, it happened all through the India series and in this series. Maybe it's because the pitch dries out and becomes slower? I really don't know why this is.

 

[Dissector]

Steyn is a loser

P.S. What are the fourth inning averages of other ATG bowlers??

They are generally excellent, often lower than their overall average. And not just for spinners.

Note that Steyn was also excellent in the first part of his career. It's only the last couple of years that he has struggled but it's had a major impact on his team.

 

[Prince EWS]

Coincidence IMO.

EDIT: And by that I mean the fact that he hasn't taken many wickets in the fourth innings recently; not the fact that this has cost his side.

 

[NasserFan207]

Bandwagon thread.

There's nothing here to discuss.

 

[Dissector]

Some additional stats. I looked at the entire SA bowling in the fourth innings in the last two years and clearly Morkel is also a problem. He averages 41 in the fourth and 24 in the first three.

By my calculations, Steyn and Morkel have a combined average of 21 and a combined strike rate of 39 in the first three innings of the last two years.

In the fourth innings their combined average is 46 and their combined strike rate is 101.

I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that the failure of Steyn and Morkel in the fourth innings is the biggest problem SA have had in the last two years. Perhaps it's just coincidence but the fact that it's affecting both bowlers does suggest otherwise.

 

[Howe_zat]

That's pretty interesting.

 

[Prince EWS]

What we're looking at here is a statistical representation of consistent bowling choke acts, aren't we?

 

[Howe_zat]

What we're looking at here is a statistical representation of consistent bowling choke acts, aren't we?

That's not the word I would use.

 

[Prince EWS]

South African batting and bowling averages by innings of match in the last two years:

Inns	Bat	Bowl

1	41.37	20.44
2	37.41	38.93
3	39.23	22.03
4	32.00	39.34

It's only been the six games, but yeah. Their batting gets worse as the game progresses and their bowling is just all over the place. Their fourth innings performances in general - 32 with the bat and 39 with the ball - have been shocking.

 

[Lostman]

32 with the bat in the 4th innings is pretty good I would think?
Have any other countries numbers?

 

[BoyBrumby]

Looks a lot like the c-word, but how do other nations' records in the 4th stack up for comparison?

 

[Prince EWS]

You can't just have everyone failing in both disciplines in the fourth innings though; that's why I posted up batting and bowling. Comparing their batting averages to their bowling averages shows how other teams have performed against them, as such, rather than just comparing each innings in one discipline. They have been vastly outplayed by their opposition in the fourth innings of matches in the last two years.

 

[robelinda]

Steyn destroyed NZ a LOT early in his career too......

 

[miscer]

sooo sad steyn only the 2nd fastest bowler ever to 250 wickets now. Not sure what the innings record is he might be tied or 1 slower in the all time fast bowlers list. (Think it's donald who holds it too).

 

[Dissector]

Looking at the actual games, I don't think their fourth innings batting has really cost them games though. They lost twice to India but both were always going to be tough games to save/win. And the first test in this series was an excellent chase.

In terms of fourth innings bowling, they have had six reasonable chances to win and only succeeded against the West Indies. They have had chances in each of their four series against England, India, Pakistan and Australia and failed to win each one of them. And clearly Steyn and Morkel are a big part of the problem.

I guess the flip side is that if they can solve this one problem, they could become no.1 quite easily. All they really need is for Tahir to settle down and bowl well in the fourth innings.

 

[Top_Cat]

Yeah agree with the above.

It's not a massive worry, tbh. Steyn does the business so often and so well when the game is there to be won in the first dig, reckon all he needs is better support. He can't do it all.

 

[Top_Cat]

That and I reckon this match he was carrying.

 

[BoyBrumby]

Just as an aside, I reckon SA seem better chasing in the 4th than defending. Cruised a very ticklish total in the first test and ditto in the 3rd test of their 2008 tour up here.

Smith tons the uniting factor, I guess. The one saffer who's immune to the choke?