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Stats Arguments

Isura

U19 Captain
Statistics, ultimately, is based on the concept of trends being used for prediction..Surely if it's true that cricket is a series of independant events, that would make analysis much tougher and associated conclusions more rubbery?
. Independent events allows easier analysis. Consider baseball. There are very good metrics for baseball...Cricket is more complicated to analyze l because of the great variation in pitches and much smaller sample size. If teams played 25-30 tests a year we could come closer to an adequate sample size for analysis.

To be honest, from the point of view of representation, cricket data lack internal validity. They describe at a very macro level what happened. I mean, you could say that the average distance the Apollo missions travelled was 384 403Km but that ignores all of the bazillions of other things that happened on the way which, if you wanted to, describe who performed their missions better. NASA measures those, cricket does not. The reasons for this are simple; in terms of deciding how many runs were scored/wickets taken by whom in determining the winner of the game, they serve their purpose.

Now, analysis of better players, etc. is far tricker and, from a research perspective, the data actually collected aren't totally useless but really are pretty vague approximation and should treated as such with appropriate caveats. Lots of them.
This is true of averages and strike rates. Those stats are far from perfect. Detailed play by play data would allow better analysis. Wagon wheel, pitch map, spider data contain a wealth of info what is currently under-utilized by analysts (except by international coaches).

Once better play by play data is available to the public (cricinfo is detailed but can't be parsed by a computer for analysis), I think you will see more sabermetric work done on cricket.
 

honestbharani

Whatever it takes!!!
In the end, I think it's so utterly, incomprehensibly boring. There is so much context behind each innings of cricket that dissecting statistics into these small samples is just worthless. No-one has ever been faced with the same situation in which they come out to bat as someone else. Ever.


You are so sigged...... :)


Truer words haven't been spoken in CC.


But now we will have to bear with stats that show that there have in fact been people walking out at the same score (0/2 or whatever) on the same ground against the same oppoent as another... Some things never change... :p
 

Top_Cat

Request Your Custom Title Now!
Independent events allows easier analysis. Consider baseball. There are very good metrics for baseball...Cricket is more complicated to analyze l because of the great variation in pitches and much smaller sample size. If teams played 25-30 tests a year we could come closer to an adequate sample size for analysis.
Dispute a couple of things there. Decent, methodical sampling of available data will give you a representative sample even if a team didn't play that many matches in a year. Also, you could just take the sample over a longer period. The same problem confronts serial violent crime/killer researchers where there are often years between murders/violent crimes.

Also, if the events in cricket were truly discrete events, that makes comparison far more difficult. As it is, like baseball, the events (e.g. a ball being bowled) aren't discrete so they are able to be compared but not without significant caveats. The caveats often do render comparisons and subsequent conclusions pretty dodgy too.

This is true of averages and strike rates. Those stats are far from perfect. Detailed play by play data would allow better analysis. Wagon wheel, pitch map, spider data contain a wealth of info what is currently under-utilized by analysts (except by international coaches).
You're still measuring and calculating from the same macro-level variables, though. They are still just descriptive statistics and speak to fairly broad trends without being terribly useful for prediction, judgement or research no matter how much data you have. You'd have to find a way to deal with the uncontrollable factors and, even then, making it defensible/credible would be incredibly difficult at such a macro level.

Once better play by play data is available to the public (cricinfo is detailed but can't be parsed by a computer for analysis), I think you will see more sabermetric work done on cricket.
Doubt it. Baseball doesn't have anywhere near the same degree of variation by inning/day/match/series in, for example, pitch conditions and their impact on the game is significant. It's all, essentially, based in descriptive stats using the same imperfect measures of what went on (runs/wickets). For deciding who won and who did what in the game, they do the job.

For research, serious data analysis, ranking of players, etc. they're pretty awful measures. Broad-based trends, sure. Definitive guides as to who's better/contributed more to wins/etc., not so much. Too many uncontrollable/unmeasurable factors. I know some people have tried to apply the same logic as sabermetricians do to cricket but they mostly end up being based on some very questionable assumptions and raising more questions than they actually answer because of it.

One example; I'd say being able to compare, say, a year's worth of pitchmap/wagon wheel data on Steve Harmison won't give you a statistically defendable answer to whether his short balls are more likely to contribute to him taking a wicket for himself, let alone his team. Got no way of accounting for pitch/weather/shot variation in a given single game, let alone being able to extrapolate that data over an entire series/season/year. You could absolutely conclude some very broad trends but that's about it.
 
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Ikki

Hall of Fame Member
It depends how stats are used TBH. I only started using them extensively upon joining this site. When you're forced with opinions like Nasser Hussain > Matthew Hayden; you have to start getting into "reality" :p. I see subjective analysis as no more accurate than stats and both have pitfalls. Personally, I use stats more frequently because nothing said on pure opinion is better than something that someone else has said. With stats though, I feel I am a tad more objective.

Maybe we should open a thread named "subjective or arbitrary arguments". ;)
 
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Uppercut

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I see subjective analysis as no more accurate than stats and both have pitfalls.
I think that's a key for me. If you're, for example, picking a player from England out of county cricket, there are big errors you can make by looking at stats alone, and big errors you can make by watching somebody play a few times and judging them based solely on that.

Stats are extremely difficult to gauge much from for the reasons T_C has pointed out. Subjective analysis is extremely difficult to gauge much from because the human mind is so vulnerable to suggestion. But if you want to judge a player, they're the only two tools you've got.
 

Ikki

Hall of Fame Member
If I am ever selective, I invite the person claiming as such to prove how I am selective and give a better means of judging.

Unfortunately, in many threads, you come in and don't do any such thing. You simply claim stats are a poor way to judge with little critique of the stats being used. It's your way of hiding behind your bias'.
 

Lillian Thomson

Hall of Fame Member
If I am ever selective, I invite the person claiming as such to prove how I am selective and give a better means of judging.

Unfortunately, in many threads, you come in and don't do any such thing. You simply claim stats are a poor way to judge with little critique of the stats being used. It's your way of hiding behind your bias'.
:laugh: Complete bollox of course. But worth it nonetheless for the comedy value of the one-eyed Australian accusing anyone else of "bias."
 

Ikki

Hall of Fame Member
Sure, it's complete bollocks because you say it is. Lord forbid someone brings up the average SR in Sobers' era again :laugh:, LT will get out his cane and smite all the stats users.
 

Richard

Cricket Web Staff Member
Nope. But I do make pretty much that exact post whenever there's a thread title with a spelling mistake and\or rogue apostrophe's (sic) etc.
 

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