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Sachin Tendulkar better than Don Bradman, new study shows

ankitj

Hall of Fame Member
I must have lot of time, and I get high doing spreadsheet work, so I put my suggestion of using geometric distribution to test. I used Tendulkar's test innings because he has the most number of them. I added score in an unbeaten innings to next completed innings, to get scores between successive dismissals. For the geometric distribution, I derived the parameter p as simply reciprocal of his test average i.e. 1/56 or 1.8% (meaning that probability that Tendulkar gets out without adding another run at any stage is 1.8%). This is how the predicted and actual distribution look like:



Not bad :)
Turns out I am not the first one to have done this loser-ish thing - The Plus sports page: The curse of the duck | plus.maths.org

There is discussion on using geometric distribution to describe batsman's scores. Also emphasizes that the assumption of uniform probability of dismissal seems to not hold very early in an innings when there is much greater likelihood of getting out.

EDIT: and :laugh: @ Nufan's pic
 
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Furball

Evil Scotsman
Right, I posted this in the England-Pakistan thread but it's relevant here:

Fun stats time.

Since the start of the Ashes series last winter, England's numbers:

AJ Straus - 563 runs @ 33.11, 1 100, 4 50s
AN Cook - 1,504 runs @ 94.00, 6 100s, 4 50s
IJL Trott - 810 runs @ 62.30, 3 100s, 3 50s
KP Pietersen - 1,055 runs @ 70.33, 3 100s, 5 50s
IR Bell - 1,164 runs @ 97.00, 5 100s, 5 50s
EJG Morgan - 362 runs @ 40.22, 1 100, 3 50s
MJ Prior - 653 runs @ 54.41, 3 100s, 3 50s
TT Bresnan - 193 runs @ 48.25, 2 50s, 27w @ 17.62, 1 5w
SCJ Broad - 239 runs @ 34.14, 3 50s, 35w @ 25.62, 1 5w
GP Swann - 40w @ 35.22, 2 5w
JM Anderson - 52w @ 26.30, 1 5w

Bench options:

RS Bopara - 51 runs @ 51.00
CT Tremlett - 36w @ 24.22, 2 5w
ST Finn - 18w @ 33.50, 1 5w

Bring it on.
Pay attention to Cook and Bell and think of the form they've been in over the last 12 months, the scores they've made and the frequency with which they've passed 100 (both men have played 12 Tests in this sample.)

Now some of you might think "ah, they're just at the peak of their form, there's no way they can maintain those levels of performance" - and you're probably correct. But form like that was just the norm for Bradman - over a 20 year Test and First Class career.

It is mind-boggling to think about how good he must have been when you look at Cook's form in particular over the last 12 months, which as outstanding as it has been, still falls short of Bradman's career.
 

ret

International Debutant
Lol @ this coming from The Australian :laugh:

To the bloke saying Sachin only has so many runs because he has played so many matches... well ****ing duh! The point is he's been good for so long.
Yep, it sounds duh

But what if someone says that in Odis, Haynes > Richards becoz he has more runs/100s, or when Azhar went past Haynes, did he automatically become greatest .... Or border\gavaskar>bradman coz of most runs .... In such cases, you can say what that bloke said but yeah it's not easy to survive for so long but that's the hallmark of great players and not something that's exclusive :)
 
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