Turns out I am not the first one to have done this loser-ish thing - The Plus sports page: The curse of the duck | plus.maths.orgI must have lot of time, and I get high doing spreadsheet work, so I put my suggestion of using geometric distribution to test. I used Tendulkar's test innings because he has the most number of them. I added score in an unbeaten innings to next completed innings, to get scores between successive dismissals. For the geometric distribution, I derived the parameter p as simply reciprocal of his test average i.e. 1/56 or 1.8% (meaning that probability that Tendulkar gets out without adding another run at any stage is 1.8%). This is how the predicted and actual distribution look like:
Not bad
Pay attention to Cook and Bell and think of the form they've been in over the last 12 months, the scores they've made and the frequency with which they've passed 100 (both men have played 12 Tests in this sample.)Fun stats time.
Since the start of the Ashes series last winter, England's numbers:
AJ Straus - 563 runs @ 33.11, 1 100, 4 50s
AN Cook - 1,504 runs @ 94.00, 6 100s, 4 50s
IJL Trott - 810 runs @ 62.30, 3 100s, 3 50s
KP Pietersen - 1,055 runs @ 70.33, 3 100s, 5 50s
IR Bell - 1,164 runs @ 97.00, 5 100s, 5 50s
EJG Morgan - 362 runs @ 40.22, 1 100, 3 50s
MJ Prior - 653 runs @ 54.41, 3 100s, 3 50s
TT Bresnan - 193 runs @ 48.25, 2 50s, 27w @ 17.62, 1 5w
SCJ Broad - 239 runs @ 34.14, 3 50s, 35w @ 25.62, 1 5w
GP Swann - 40w @ 35.22, 2 5w
JM Anderson - 52w @ 26.30, 1 5w
Bench options:
RS Bopara - 51 runs @ 51.00
CT Tremlett - 36w @ 24.22, 2 5w
ST Finn - 18w @ 33.50, 1 5w
Bring it on.
Yep, it sounds duhLol @ this coming from The Australian
To the bloke saying Sachin only has so many runs because he has played so many matches... well ****ing duh! The point is he's been good for so long.
Not too far off, tbh.
Portrait of the researcher doing this study.
Not too far off, tbh.