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Reality of 99.4 Average?

Red

The normal awards that everyone else has
Always wondered whether Bradman had a form of autism or Aspergers, but undiagnosed.

Enjoyed his own company, solitude, was able to concentrate immensely on a single task for longer than others, was extremely pragmatic, and from some accounts relied on Jessie a lot in social situations.
 

Chubb

International Regular
Always wondered whether Bradman had a form of autism or Aspergers, but undiagnosed.

Enjoyed his own company, solitude, was able to concentrate immensely on a single task for longer than others, was extremely pragmatic, and from some accounts relied on Jessie a lot in social situations.
Yes I have wondered the same thing. I also think Smith could be on the spectrum, but that may just be his immaturity. A lot of mild cases of spectrum disorders or a non-spectrum ones that affects social skills go undiagnosed.

I was actually diagnosed with dyspraxia as a kid and it's only in later life that I realised the impact it had on my social skills, for example. It is not a spectrum disorder but it does affect behaviour/socialisation particularly in children. Though I doubt any professional sportsman could have dyspraxia as its main impact is coordination and fine motor function.
 

Burgey

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I also think Smith could be on the spectrum, but that may just be his immaturity.
On it? He owns it. I don't really know that he's immature at all as a bloke tbh. His mannerisms do give that impression though.

There's been quite a lot of conjecture re Bradman being on the spectrum, and I suspect he probably was. if he wasn't I think he could wave to it from where he was standing.
 

mr_mister

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
A man i nursed who knew Bradman described him as having 'his own style' when i asked him this exact question pretty much
 

Howe_zat

Audio File
A lot of mild cases of spectrum disorders or a non-spectrum ones that affects social skills go undiagnosed.
Indeed, and I think it's not unlikely that these people will be over-represented in elite sports. If someone has a case of autism that is noticed enough to be diagnosed and intervened in a major way in youth, this doesn't apply. But for milder cases (or for people who have a good support network from their background) the person in question tends to developed their own coping strategies. For people with ASD, part of that is usually an intensity and focus on one aspect of their lives in which they feel success. If that is around things that parents and educators are more likely to approve of - such as, y'know, a sports career - it's likely to go undiagnosed. And that can be completely fine - ASD is not a mental illness and shouldn't be treated as such.
 

_00_deathscar

International Regular
It feels like everyone is jumping on my post either because I have explained it poorly, or they really aren't getting what I am saying (and they think I've probably said Bradman is crap/not that good, as evidenced by the post quering whether I'd also divide other players averages by half from the same period).

My simple argument is that he'd still likely dominate (everything points to that - the fact that he's the only one who ever did it to that extent he did is evidence enough), it's just harder to do it at the statistical level he did in today's. And each decade that passes, it becomes that much harder to get to that same statistical point. And it mostly has to do with the talent pool and increase in ability of the 'average' player.

Basically that a career average of 60-75 (which is just pure guess work - I'm not even sure what that exact figure would be - maybe it is actually 99.94...who knows?) is the new 99.94.
 

honestbharani

Whatever it takes!!!
It feels like everyone is jumping on my post either because I have explained it poorly, or they really aren't getting what I am saying (and they think I've probably said Bradman is crap/not that good, as evidenced by the post quering whether I'd also divide other players averages by half from the same period).

My simple argument is that he'd still likely dominate (everything points to that - the fact that he's the only one who ever did it to that extent he did is evidence enough), it's just harder to do it at the statistical level he did in today's. And each decade that passes, it becomes that much harder to get to that same statistical point. And it mostly has to do with the talent pool and increase in ability of the 'average' player.

Basically that a career average of 60-75 (which is just pure guess work - I'm not even sure what that exact figure would be - maybe it is actually 99.94...who knows?) is the new 99.94.
I see your point but I think what others are trying to point out, is that even if you agree that he was just too much of a freak at a time when most others were just human, there is nothing to suggest that the freak won't do just as well even now. Coz averaging 60 for any length of time seems such a huge achievement even today, even FC averages do not hit those that consistently. Like the definition of a good batting average has not changed across so many decades, why do you think the outlier will change ?

At the very least, you can surely see there is as much chance of him dominating exactly how he did as there isn't, if he were to be born in this era and be a professional round about now.
 

NotMcKenzie

International Debutant
My simple argument is that he'd still likely dominate (everything points to that - the fact that he's the only one who ever did it to that extent he did is evidence enough), it's just harder to do it at the statistical level he did in today's. And each decade that passes, it becomes that much harder to get to that same statistical point. And it mostly has to do with the talent pool and increase in ability of the 'average' player.

Basically that a career average of 60-75 (which is just pure guess work - I'm not even sure what that exact figure would be - maybe it is actually 99.94...who knows?) is the new 99.94.
I'd say you've not managed to actually establish that.
 

aussie tragic

International Captain
Surprised by all this. If Viv Richards and Greg Chappell had use of todays bats they'd average 70, so Bradman would probably average 120 ;)
 

_00_deathscar

International Regular
I see your point but I think what others are trying to point out, is that even if you agree that he was just too much of a freak at a time when most others were just human, there is nothing to suggest that the freak won't do just as well even now. Coz averaging 60 for any length of time seems such a huge achievement even today, even FC averages do not hit those that consistently. Like the definition of a good batting average has not changed across so many decades, why do you think the outlier will change ?

At the very least, you can surely see there is as much chance of him dominating exactly how he did as there isn't, if he were to be born in this era and be a professional round about now.
Of course, there is that possibility - I'm not denying that. It's possible he would have done the same and averaged 90+.

It's just my opinion that what is more likely is that Bradman probably would have averaged somewhere between 60-75 (maybe 60 is too low - let's go 65-80 then) and that's because of how increasingly difficult it is to average anywhere close to that these days (especially over a whole career - we'll have to see how Smith does...). You don't see it anymore in the test arena, whereas there are plenty of instances of players hitting high 50s and even touching 60 in the past.

And a lot of that is essentially the consequence of the talent pool available. You only have to look at the level of cricket of someone like India even into the 90s - half those players were barely 'athletes'. They may have been good at cricket, but they weren't particularly great athletes. That is what has changed massively, even more so from back in Bradman's era. And the actual level of the cricket player probably hasn't changed much, probably not for the worse (talking about the average player here).

It's not very representative, but as a silly example - OF COURSE Bradman would still find those gaps in the field, naturally he would - he was the best ever. But maybe some of the shots that used to go for a boundary are now cut out by ridiculous dives. Maybe that slog over long off for six is now caught at the boundary (think of the number of insane catches in the last ~10-20 years - it was a lot more rare back in the day) and he doesn't get a chance to motor on to 254 but is caught out at 86 instead.

Naturally, Bradman would adapt - but that adaption would be him averaging 60-75 or 65-80 or whatever it is, I just think a 90+ average is more unlikely than it is likely.

Using a football example to show what I kind of mean...

Look at Cristiano and Messi - considered among the greatest goalscorers ever. But compared to even Puskas and Muller and Pele, nevermind Bican, their 'goal per game' average is well...average.
Similarly, looking through that list, the top 20 ratios are basically made up of players who played more than 20 years ago with the exception of Messi, Cristiano and at the bottom of the ~20 or so, Ibrahimovic (and Romario but most of his goals were in the 90s anyway).

And no one is suggesting that in today's game, Puskas and Muller would still be scoring (across their careers) at 1 goal a game. It is more likely that, like Messi and Cristiano, they'd probably average a goal a game for ~5-10 years, and their overall career average would probably drop to somewhere in the 0.7-0.8 goals per game at best.

I hope that kind of helps explain what I'm trying to get at?
 
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weeman27bob

International Vice-Captain
It's not very representative, but as a silly example - OF COURSE Bradman would still find those gaps in the field, naturally he would - he was the best ever. But maybe some of the shots that used to go for a boundary are now cut out by ridiculous dives. Maybe that slog over long off for six is now caught at the boundary (think of the number of insane catches in the last ~10-20 years - it was a lot more rare back in the day) and he doesn't get a chance to motor on to 254 but is caught out at 86 instead.
Have you seen the difference in bats between the 1930s/1940s and today though?
 

_00_deathscar

International Regular
Have you seen the difference in bats between the 1930s/1940s and today though?
Yes, of course.

I edited my post from earlier - see the football example to show what I'm trying to get at.
Essentially that the extremes (or at least the top extreme) is shrinking regardless of whether the average goes up. There's also a LOT, LOT more cricket played (which is actually the opposite of football in fact...) - it becomes increasingly harder (even for someone as superhuman as Bradman - you only have to look at Ponting's example) to keep doing that for the number of matches that are played.
 

trundler

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Haha, yeah. Give him Rohit's rocket launcher and he'd barely need to run once he gets his eye in. These days defensive pushes and top edges that should gently lob up to slip go for 4. You just have to connect it. Batsmen start off attempting to scoop it over the keeper, get themselves in a weird position, realize the ball isn't there but still manage to get it away for 4 in an entirely different part of the ground. Sure, that would result in more catches carrying to slip and such but it's definitely gonna boost his average if anything. Really, it boils down to whether you think it's much harder to be an outlier now than it was then. I don't think so tbh since it's just 1 individual in 143 years. And I think the sheer ridiculousness of averaging 40 more than Walter Hammond is being glossed over.
 

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