Okay, so who's gonna win?

[marc71178]

Well his current injury won't rule him out so from there I guess it's just a case of us kiwi fans praying his body holds together from now until the end of the tournament.

You can't really put a percentage on his chances IMO...

The problem with him is that he always seems to manage to be injured no matter how hard he tries to stay fit.

A massive shame as his record when actually able to play suggests there's not an ODI side around who'd turn him down.

 

[Blaze]

I was actually surprised at how much cricket he managed to play over our summer.

He played all 4 ODI's against Sri Lanka, all 5 ODI's against West Indies and 2 out of the 3 Tests against West Indies.

The only cricket he missed was one Test and the 3 ODI's against Australia IIRC...

Of course then he made up for that by injuring himself in the warm up game in South Africa and missing all 3 Tests...

 

[marc71178]

And isn't he still injured at the moment?!

 

[Matt52]

And isn't he still injured at the moment?!

Yeah, I think so. He averages about 14 or 15 games before he breaks down for another year. So, if we can get him through the VB series this year with 4 or 5 games as a warm up to the World cup he should make it all the way through the cup before slipping on a banana skin just after the final and being in traction for 6 months. We will hear random reports of his imminent return to cricket and that "playing in a full body cast is not that difficult after all".

 

[Matt52]

I think NZ have a good chance to win the cup. If Bond is fit then we have at least two really good bowlers (Vettori as well). We also have this young guy by the name of Ross Taylor. People that know a lot more about cricket than I do suggest he could be the best batsmen NZ has produced. He should bat at three and can destroy sides on his day. Seems to have a good head on his shoulders as well. Saw him in a provincial match smash Shane Bond all over the park almost with disdain. He averaged 67 this year in one dayers, and his overall average is above 50 for NZ domestic cricket. With Fleming, Taylor, Astle and Vincent NZ has a pretty good top 4. A long batting order means we can chase down some pretty big totals.

In the bowling, Bond and Vettori can be supported by Franklin who is improving, and Oram doesnt scare anyone but is hard to score from.

I better finish this post quickly........that unfounded confidence alcohol gives you is starting to wear off..........

 

[marc71178]

We will hear random reports of his imminent return to cricket and that "playing in a full body cast is not that difficult after all".

LOL - good one.

If he says that I think we'd actually have one person on here who would agree in 100% seriousness.

 

[Sir Redman]

I was actually surprised at how much cricket he managed to play over our summer.

He played all 4 ODI's against Sri Lanka, all 5 ODI's against West Indies and 2 out of the 3 Tests against West Indies.

The only cricket he missed was one Test and the 3 ODI's against Australia IIRC...

Of course then he made up for that by injuring himself in the warm up game in South Africa and missing all 3 Tests...

The problem was that the games he played were the ones where we needed him least (Sri Lanka ODIs, WI tests and ODIs) but he missed the ones where we desperately needed him (Australia ODIs, SA tests).

 

[Scaly piscine]

I think NZ have a good chance to win the cup. If Bond is fit then we have at least two really good bowlers (Vettori as well). We also have this young guy by the name of Ross Taylor. People that know a lot more about cricket than I do suggest he could be the best batsmen NZ has produced. He should bat at three and can destroy sides on his day. Seems to have a good head on his shoulders as well. Saw him in a provincial match smash Shane Bond all over the park almost with disdain. He averaged 67 this year in one dayers, and his overall average is above 50 for NZ domestic cricket. With Fleming, Taylor, Astle and Vincent NZ has a pretty good top 4. A long batting order means we can chase down some pretty big totals.

In the bowling, Bond and Vettori can be supported by Franklin who is improving, and Oram doesnt scare anyone but is hard to score from.

I better finish this post quickly........that unfounded confidence alcohol gives you is starting to wear off..........

Vettori will bowl some tidy overs but nothing special - which is the problem with NZ in the first place. They're not going to win the World Cup playing plodding away.with a good but unremarkable cricket. You're hanging your hopes on a sicknote and a guy who's played two ODIs to do something special. The rest of your batting is average at best, look at the records of Fleming and Vincent - they wouldn't make a number 6 spot in most ODI sides (for example Collingwood has a better record batting in a crap spot and is a better fielder). Astle is past his best... Just don't see them winning it.

 

[marc71178]

So in spite of playing considerably better ODI Cricket than England, they're not going to win. However you think England have a chance?

 

[nibbs]

lol, England won't win. They sux at ODIs. New Zealand will need to things to go their way, but certainly a chance, on their day

 

[Dasa]

Vettori will bowl some tidy overs but nothing special - which is the problem with NZ in the first place. They're not going to win the World Cup playing plodding away.with a good but unremarkable cricket. You're hanging your hopes on a sicknote and a guy who's played two ODIs to do something special. The rest of your batting is average at best, look at the records of Fleming and Vincent - they wouldn't make a number 6 spot in most ODI sides (for example Collingwood has a better record batting in a crap spot and is a better fielder). Astle is past his best... Just don't see them winning it.

Ha...if averaging 86.40 in ODIs in 2006 is 'past his best', I'd like to see him at his best...and I'd say Vettori is a better ODI bowler than anyone in the English team bar Flintoff (maybe).

 

[Matt52]

Vettori will bowl some tidy overs but nothing special - which is the problem with NZ in the first place. They're not going to win the World Cup playing plodding away.with a good but unremarkable cricket. You're hanging your hopes on a sicknote and a guy who's played two ODIs to do something special. The rest of your batting is average at best, look at the records of Fleming and Vincent - they wouldn't make a number 6 spot in most ODI sides (for example Collingwood has a better record batting in a crap spot and is a better fielder). Astle is past his best... Just don't see them winning it.

Vincent had a bad time when he first came into the side. He was moved all around the order from 1 to 7 and never settled. He got dropped a few years ago and since he came back into the side has averaged 38 in one dayers and 49 in tests. Just his start was so poor that his overall average suffers. Both he and Fleming are better than Collingwood. The problem with NZ batsmen is that they play half of their interantional matches on NZ pitches which seam around all over the show. If those guys played all their cricket in India they would average in the high 30's for sure. You could probably add 3 or 4 runs to each NZ average to get a better indication of their ability. Our batsmen are always underated because people look at their averages, likewise, our bowlers are overated because they play on slow seamers all the time and pick up wickets by just lobbing the thing down the other end and letting the pitch get them wickets.

Taylor will have played another years worth of one dayers before the world cup comes around. I agree about the sicknote. If Bond is injured we will make up the numbers

 

[Scaly piscine]

So in spite of playing considerably better ODI Cricket than England, they're not going to win. However you think England have a chance?

You repeatedly ignore how whenever England really want to win something like the Ashes they go up 2-3 gears. England having 3-4 bowlers steaming in at 85+ mph in ODI cricket is quite difficult to play against. NZ plodding away at their usual level will not cope with a team trying to win a World Cup - just as they keep losing against Australia in live ODI matches against their full team.

 

[Scaly piscine]

Vincent had a bad time when he first came into the side. He was moved all around the order from 1 to 7 and never settled. He got dropped a few years ago and since he came back into the side has averaged 38 in one dayers and 49 in tests. Just his start was so poor that his overall average suffers. Both he and Fleming are better than Collingwood. The problem with NZ batsmen is that they play half of their interantional matches on NZ pitches which seam around all over the show. If those guys played all their cricket in India they would average in the high 30's for sure. You could probably add 3 or 4 runs to each NZ average to get a better indication of their ability. Our batsmen are always underated because people look at their averages, likewise, our bowlers are overated because they play on slow seamers all the time and pick up wickets by just lobbing the thing down the other end and letting the pitch get them wickets.

Taylor will have played another years worth of one dayers before the world cup comes around. I agree about the sicknote. If Bond is injured we will make up the numbers

Fleming, Vincent and Astle all average more at home than away (Astle by quite a distance). NZ bowling stats (Mills, Oram, Martin, Mason etc.) are pretty mediocre (apart from Bond and Vettori as far as ER goes). The stuff about NZ pitches being so bowler friendly is exaggerated as far as ODIs goes.

 

[marc71178]

You repeatedly ignore how whenever England really want to win something like the Ashes they go up 2-3 gears.

And you repeatedly ignore how in Tests England are a decent side even when not fully "switcehed on" - as this current series is showing.

However in ODIs we are tripe, and the last 8 will be as good as we can hope for.

 

[Scaly piscine]

And you repeatedly ignore how in Tests England are a decent side even when not fully "switcehed on" - as this current series is showing.

However in ODIs we are tripe, and the last 8 will be as good as we can hope for.

England have strength in depth in Tests but not in ODIs (the sub nonsense worked against them as well because of this), also Tests are less of a team thing than ODIs because bowlers can bowl as much as they like. England have had to fill in with 10 or more overs of garbage from Kabir and the like. When it matters England will be able to call on most of Simon Jones, Harmison, Flintoff, Anderson, Plunkett plus Blackwell or Giles. Those bowling at full tilt is a completely different proposition from Flintoff at low 80s, Harmison the same, some solid overs and then Kabir/Batty/Hoggard etc.

 

[Blaze]

England have strength in depth in Tests but not in ODIs (the sub nonsense worked against them as well because of this), also Tests are less of a team thing than ODIs because bowlers can bowl as much as they like. England have had to fill in with 10 or more overs of garbage from Kabir and the like. When it matters England will be able to call on most of Simon Jones, Harmison, Flintoff, Anderson, Plunkett plus Blackwell or Giles. Those bowling at full tilt is a completely different proposition from Flintoff at low 80s, Harmison the same, some solid overs and then Kabir/Batty/Hoggard etc.

I reckon England have a chance as well. They won a few games against Aus last year and looked alright. On their day they will be hard to beat.

I also think that we have a chance though. Fleming and Astle have won plenty of games for us in the past and there is no reason why they can't this time around as well. McCullum is ever improving, and took it to the Aussies last time around. We bat deep and will compete in every game. I think we will probably make the semi's but from there we will struggle.

If Bond is on fire then we could go further though...Hopefully we can buck the trend and get on a role and make the final.

An NZ vs. West Indies final would suit me perfectly...