Son Of Coco
Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
You need hindsight to know exactly what that number is though as it will vary every game and be dependent on how conditions change. If you're never going to declare your first innings until you get to a point where you think the other team could bat the remainder of the game and not make that score then we're talking between 600-800 every game. And are we then saying every time a team has declared under 520 in their first innings that's been a bad decision? I think the game is a bit more fluid than that and that's reflected in the numerous things that have to be taken into account at each point of declaration.I wasn't talking in hindsight though; I was talking in general. No matter what happened after that point, the decision to bat on (had it actually been made) would not have resulted in a draw that could have been avoided by declaring unless it rained heaps. There was no potential loss by making that decision at the time regardless of what happened after it. I'm not just saying that in the context of what actually did happen after that point - I'm saying it in general because if the West Indies actually did manage to bat out the rest of the game, they'd pass the score anyway so Australia would have to bat again.
Essentially my point is that you should never, ever declare your first innings until you get to a point where you believe the opposition could bat out the remainder of the game without actually reaching your score. If you think the opposition would reach your score by batting out the rest of the game, you might as well keep batting as you'll be batting again anyway unless you bowl them out twice quickly, in which case batting on wouldn't have mattered anyway. Winning the game doesn't become any less likely at all by batting on until you reach the point of your innings where your opposition would not pass your score if they batted for the remainder of the game. 520 is not that point.
You have to factor in what might happen throughout the rest of the game. if you're playing for a draw every game then batting until you get 600 is definitely the right way to go.