Cricket Simulator Predicts $1.29 Fair Value for South Africa; $4.39 for Bangladesh
A 1,000 match series was played between two simulator teams, one comprised of the likely South African lineup for the first ODI in the upcoming South Africa in Bangladesh 2015 ODI series, and the other, their Bangladeshi opponents. The simulation suggested that Fair Value for South Africa at a betting house might be $1.29; for Bangladesh, $4.39.
The South African team was:
1. Hashim Amla (BatSR 89.9, BatAve 55.26, BowlEcon n/a, BowlSR n/a, 6pm 6, 4pm 89)
2. Quinton de Kock (BatSR 87.8, BatAve 38.83, BowlEcon n/a, BowlSR n/a, 6pm 10, 4pm 99) (wk)
3. Faf du Plessis (BatSR 84.4, BatAve 36.60, BowlEcon n/a, BowlSR n/a, 6pm 12, 4pm 70)
4. Rilee Rossouw (BatSR 95.2, BatAve 34.77, BowlEcon n/a, BowlSR n/a, 6pm 18, 4pm 80)*
5. AB de Villiers (BatSR 99.1, BatAve 53.65, BowlEcon n/a, BowlSR n/a, 6pm 20, 4pm 89)
6. David Miller (BatSR 102.56, BatAve 38.06, BowlEcon n/a, BowlSR n/a, 6pm 31, 4pm 75)
7. JP Duminy (BatSR 84..0, BatAve 39.66, BowlEcon 5.1, BowlSR 46.9, 6pm 12, 4pm 54) (5)
8. Morne Morkel (BatSR 76.0, BatAve 8.70, BowlEcon 4.9, BowlSR 29.3, 6pm 6, 4pm 89) (3)
9. Kyle Abbott (BatSR 73.4, BatAve 11.75, BowlEcon 4.8, BowlSR 41.1, 6pm 6, 4pm 66) (1)*
10. Ryan McLaren (BatSR 71.3, BatAve 18.65, BowlEcon 5.2, BowlSR 31.2, 6pm 9, 4pm 62) (2)
11. Imran Tahir (BatSR 71.4, BatAve 10.00, BowlEcon 4.5, BowlSR 32.0, 6pm 7, 4pm 77) (4)*
The Bangladeshi team was:
1. Tamim Iqbal (BatSR 78.6, BatAve 31.35, BowlEcon n/a, BowlSR n/a, 6pm 10, 4pm 90)
2. Soumya Sarkar (BatSR 90.0, BatAve 35.00, BowlEcon n/a, BowlSR n/a, 6pm 10, 4pm 90)*
3. Litton Das (BatSR 78.0, BatAve 28.00, BowlEcon n/a, BowlSR n/a, 6pm 7, 4pm 70)
4. Mushfiqur Rahim (BatSR 75.2, BatAve 31.16, BowlEcon n/a, BowlSR n/a, 6pm 11, 4pm 60)
5. Shakib al Hasan (BatSR 80.3, BatAve 35.23, BowlEcon 4.3, BowlSR 39.4, 6pm 6, 4pm 71) (5)
6. Sabbir Rahman (BatSR 92.0, BatAve 33.00, BowlEcon n/a, BowlSR n/a, 6pm 9, 4pm 90)*
7. Nasir Hossain (BatSR 81.3, BatAve 34.08, BowlEcon n/a, BowlSR n/a, 6pm 10, 4pm 72)
8. Mashrafe Mortaza (BatSR 88.1, BatAve 14.68, BowlEcon 4.7, BowlSR 39.1, 6pm 30, 4pm 75) (2)
9. Arafat Sunny (BatSR 65.0, BatAve 12.00, BowlEcon 5.3, BowlSR 40.0, 6pm 6, 4pm 89) (4)*
10. Taskin Ahmed (BatSR 60.0, BatAve 8.00, BowlEcon 5.5, BowlSR 33.0, 6pm 6, 4pm 60) (1)*
11. Mustafizur Rahman (BatSR 60.0, BatAve 8.00, BowlEcon 5.3, BowlSR 40.0, 6pm 5, 4pm 50) (3)*
* Stats adjusted on account of low number of games played.
Hashim Amla scored 165 centuries, suggesting that Fair Value for an Amla century against this Bangladesh attack would be $6.06.
AB de Villiers scored 91 centuries, suggesting that Fair Value for a de Villiers century would be $10.99.
For South Africa, Fair Value for Hashim Amla top scoring was $5.38. For AB de Villiers it was $6.20, for Faf du Plessis $7.96, for Quinton de Kock $7.37, for Rilee Rossouw $7.32 and for JP Duminy $13.74.
Tamim Iqbal and Soumya Sarkar both scored 39 centuries, suggesting that Fair Value for one of their centuries would be $25.64.
Shakib al Hasan had the lowest Fair Value to top score for Bangladesh at $6.39.
Fwiw