MSP surely... surely... has to go. Onions to replace him, you'd imagine, but you can never take anything for granted with England's selectors at the current time.
Harmison for Broad would have some merit (can't see Harmison being successful really, but nor can I see Broad being), but I feel Plunkett for Broad would possibly make more sense... and that's virtually none whatsoever. At least Plunkett is a hopeless bowler who can bat a bit, same as Broad. Though he's nowhere near as good as Broad with the bat.
Either way, I don't think it's exceptionally likely that Broad will be dropped. Just hope they don't go and do something stupid, along the lines of picking Pattinson in 2008.
As regards the deck, well the match against West Indies earlier this summer was easily the liveliest Lord's Test deck since 2005. And before anyone goes on about it being May - yes, so were the opening Tests in 2006, 2007 and 2008, and none of them had a particularly remarkable amount in them for seam either, though admittedly more than the second Lord's Tests in 2006 and 2008 did.
So in short it's not remotely unrealistic to expect a result pitch. Can England win only their 2nd victory against Australia in 113 years? I doubt it TBH.