Official Rugby Thread

[Somerset]

TAB odds are out.
$1.50 for NZ $2.50 for SA for this saturday.

I am really interested in the logic behind these odds. We havn't beaten SA in a while. Granted the game is in NZ but I think given these odds I might put some money on SA.

Also the TAB has published odds for the world cup next year, nz are favourites

I am firmly tempted to put $5 on Russia the odds are so tempting. I guess that is the whole idea of offering outragous odds on a long shot.

I think my betting strategy will be bet on SA. Look to be the best value for money.

Definitely won't be betting on Aussie.

The All Blacks' favouritism may have something to do with their current 20 match unbeaten streak at Eden Park - nor have they lost to South Africa at Eden Park since the 1930s. Fairly convincing home wins this season against Ireland and Wales (x2) will have helped, as will the return of the likes of Nonu to the Tri Nations squad. Also, one of the key points in the All Blacks' (and Wallabies') favour is that Fourie du Preez, IMO the best halfback in the world, is out of rugby for the rest of the season. I think the $1.50-$2.50 opening odds are appropriate for where the money is going to go anyway.

On a sidenote, are you serious about $5 for Russia? Did you put $5 on North Korea to win the football world cup too?

 

[Hurricane]

I probably won't give into the temptation to bet on Russia. The odds at 10 000 to 1 turned my head for a minute.

Thanks for the info on the Eden Park factor.

I bet $5 on SA today.

 

[_Ed_]

How awesome would it be if North Otago won the Shield?

 

[Smudge]

Meh, never had much of a chance. Professional team against an amateur team. Good effort though from the North Otago lads - they can hold their heads high.

 

[Hurricane]

Thoughts on SA vs NZ so far.

The new rules this year are helping our running game more than SA. Our defence is also rugged. Scrum looks good. And tactically we are sound not kicking the ball out.

 

[Somerset]

Great performance from New Zealand. What impressed me the most was the physicality of the All Blacks' game - on the build-up Justin Marshall commented that the ABs would be foolish to try and win the game by trying to outmuscle the Springboks but thats effectively what happened. Few questions for SA mainly regarding what happened to the South African line-out, do they have a plan B when trailing by 15 or 18 points (taking penalty shots at goal, seriously?) and how dangerous is it to include players like Bakkies Botha, Butch James, etc. when they look so capable of being removed from the field for ill discipline. I was surprised also at how spent the SA players looked and 20+ missed tackles with 10 minutes to go is a shocking statistic for a side usually defensively sound.

 

[Smudge]

I reckon the big thing for the Saffa lineout was Smit back at hooker. He's starting to look like a walking advertisement for Iggy Pop's song "The Passenger".

 

[Somerset]

Thoughts on SA vs NZ so far.

The new rules this year are helping our running game more than SA. Our defence is also rugged. Scrum looks good. And tactically we are sound not kicking the ball out.

Yeh very good tactic to keep the ball in-play as much as possible - the continuity was tremendous. Pleasing to see the scrum hold up well though was South Africa's really that strong? I've never rated Jannie du Plessis (his brother is a far better player) although Stenkamp's usually solid.

Regarding the new rules, theres two points I'll make. Firstly I agree that it suits the ABs' mentality to keep the game flowing, and tire the opposition. Secondly it tends to negate the ability of the openside flanker, or indeed any player, to turn the ball over. Brussouw was brilliant last year in the Tri-Nations and IMO was every bit as good as McCaw and with that ability reduced its one area of strength that Brussouw provided thats somewhat been eliminated. Irrespective, he didn't play tonight but just making the point for reference.

One other aspect - I noted earlier in the week that du Preez's absense would be important, and although Januarie's useful enough, I don't think du Preez has a peer.

 

[BoyBrumby]

Pretty comprehensive stuff from NZ. Line out was huge and Mils definitely back.

 

[Hurricane]

One other aspect - I noted earlier in the week that du Preez's absense would be important, and although Januarie's useful enough, I don't think du Preez has a peer.

Do you think he would have won them the game?

I am sure I am not the only New Zealander who lost money on this game. SA were never in it. Mealamu was a monster. Crunching hits and a high workrate. It was like he was worried about his spot in the team or something.

Our 12 and 13 comprehensively outplayed their counterparts. And I am not sure that Habana got the chance to run with the ball in hand all night.
We were even safe under the high ball. Except for one drop.

Anyways I am sure it is too soon to talk about the world cup chances - I will wait until the Tri Nations is more advanced.

Finally although we retained our world number 1 rating. I would like to see us beat them one more time before I will personally feel comfortable describing us as the best team in the world.

I am not going to bet on next week's game after this performance - hard to bet against Black now.

 

[Somerset]

Do you think he would have won them the game?

Bit difficult to answer yes or no; I think the difference in du Preez's absence is comparable to when the ABs were without Carter for the first half of the Tri-Nations last year and lost those two games in South Africa convincingly enough.

 

[_Ed_]

Don't think Botha can have any complaints about his 9-week suspension. Disgraceful behaviour.

 

[Somerset]

Don't think Botha can have any complaints about his 9-week suspension. Disgraceful behaviour.

First time I saw the replay my immediate reaction was that he'll be out for a while for that - didn't anticipate nine weeks though I guess the punishment sends a message for players to eliminate that sort of stupidity.

 

[_Ed_]

Apparently he's done similar things before, so that may have contributed to the length of the ban.

 

[BoyBrumby]

Old school enforcer, our Bakkies. Great player, but pure filth. Although as long as Burger retains his position he'll only be the second dirtiest player in the team.

Interesting choice of phrase in his mea culpa too, " I have done an injustice to the Springbok jersey and what it stands for." cynics might suggest he's pretty much exactly lived up (down) to what the Springboks stand for.

 

[Somerset]

Apparently he's done similar things before, so that may have contributed to the length of the ban.

Yup IIRC he was suspended just a few months ago on his return to Super 14 for nailing Gio Aplon in the Stormers vs Bulls round-robin match, plus I remember a few incidents in the past too...

 

[ripper868]

Was suspened from the s14 finals for dangerously charging into a ruck, basically shoulder charged a bloke who was prone right in the kidneys...good riddance i say, could make a career as a nightclub bouncer though.

 

[Hurricane]

We've had some dirty players in the past. But we always did it to win the game rather than just for fun.
I remember we were losing to the French. And the commentators predicted that we would take out one of the opposition. And surprise surprise 5 minutes later richard loe broke a front rowers nose with a rather un-subtle upper cut. The French guy had to be helped from the field. The French scrum fell apart and we recovered to win the game.

I don't think based on our history that we should go around calling Bakkies dirty. And I noticed that Piri Weepu was watching his words carefully on TV today. I would welcome Bakkies into the ABs any day of the week. Think he is pretty rugged. I gaurantee that come the world cup he will play with more smarts and not do anything stupid.

 

[Somerset]

I don't think based on our history that we should go around calling Bakkies dirty. And I noticed that Piri Weepu was watching his words carefully on TV today. I would welcome Bakkies into the ABs any day of the week. Think he is pretty rugged. I gaurantee that come the world cup he will play with more smarts and not do anything stupid.

I've got no problem calling him a dirty player - anyone that stupid to attempt the cheapshots hes committed in recent times with so many cameras watching the game deserves that title. I certainly wouldn't guarantee that he'll be better behaved at the World Cup either. Theres no doubt that, putting aside the ill discipline, hes a talented rugby player, and as your example illustrated someone that gets stuck into the opposition (whether legitimately or not) can halt the progress of the other side. Personally though, I think hes a moron and would prefer a Brad Thorn (or Nathan Sharpe from an Australia perspective) to Botha.

 

[ripper868]

Simmons and Humphries to usurp Sharpe by the World cup ftw...Humphries using a walking stick to get around though.