*Official* Road to 2013 Ashes

[Viscount Tom]

Lead-up to '05 was both team playing extremely well winning series against lots of teams, lead-up to this one...hmmm...

 

[Spark]

England had 51ao mere months before 09. Dangerous to predict too far ahead ever in Tests, especially nowadays when form seems to come and go so rapidly.

 

[theegyptian]

England's insipid performance in NZ is awful but the one consolation is that it will dampen expectations somewhat. If we'd won 3-0 (and aus losing 4-0) press and fans alike would have been predicting 5-0 wins which would have been completely unreasonable given Australia are considerably more suited and prepared for a tour to england than india.

Hopefully the press build it up as two average teams coming face to face. Could be like the 2009 ashes. Two average teams come together with not much between them and some pretty poor cricket played.

 

[Tangles]

What's scary is that I can see the selectors starting the first Ashes test with the same 11 that just folded I the 4th India test. Obviously Clarke comes back for Maxwell but Watson and Wade are probably locks for spots. I can see MJ playing if Starc and Bird are not fit. Gonna hope they take Hilf and Harris and drop him though.

Wade needs to be dropped fast. Pick Haddin if none of the other younger guys are better than Wade. Which seems inconceivable.

We really need to do something with Watson. No runs as a pure batsman should mean dropped.

 

[social]

What's scary is that I can see the selectors starting the first Ashes test with the same 11 that just folded I the 4th India test. Obviously Clarke comes back for Maxwell but Watson and Wade are probably locks for spots. I can see MJ playing if Starc and Bird are not fit. Gonna hope they take Hilf and Harris and drop him though.

Wade needs to be dropped fast. Pick Haddin if none of the other younger guys are better than Wade. Which seems inconceivable.

We really need to do something with Watson. No runs as a pure batsman should mean dropped.

To give you an indication of how ****ed Oz thinking is atm ......

Bird's fc record is distorted because he is a bowler that plays at bowler-friendly Bellerive

Butterworth's fc record is distorted because he is a bowler that plays at bowler-friendly Bellerive

Cosgrove has scored 9000 runs @ 40+ including 800 this year

His home ground - bowler-friendly Bellerive

 

[GotSpin]

I think we need to relax a bit. We weren't that far away from beating South Africa at home and probably only a few selection changes from a much better team. Johnson is clearly not very high on the pecking order either. Replace Wade with Haddin and turf out Maxwell and things look better already.

I think there's something wrong with Cosgroves commitment. His weight issues are clearly keeping him out of the side but surely if he wanted to play for Australia that badly he'd be willing to lay down the fork for at least a season or two. It's not that hard. He is a professional athlete (?) with a team of support staff.

 

[wpdavid]

England's insipid performance in NZ is awful but the one consolation is that it will dampen expectations somewhat. If we'd won 3-0 (and aus losing 4-0) press and fans alike would have been predicting 5-0 wins which would have been completely unreasonable given Australia are considerably more suited and prepared for a tour to england than india.

Hopefully the press build it up as two average teams coming face to face. Could be like the 2009 ashes. Two average teams come together with not much between them and some pretty poor cricket played.

Perhaps 1985 would be a fair comparison. Both sides are way off the top of the pile. Aus have one WC batsman and not much else in the top 6 but some promising quicks. England are more experienced but everyone knows our batting is fragile.

Nightmare scenario is that this will actually be a repeat of 1989, which is looking increasingly possible given how dire we've been in NZ.

 

[Tangles]

I see 1 obvious change and 3 slots up for grabs based on what we have seen recently and injuries.

1. Warner
2. Cowan
3. Hughes
4. -
5. Clarke
6. -
7. Haddin
8. -
9. Siddle
10. Pattinson
11. Lyon

I'm about done with Watson if he's not bowling. Experienced or not he is a liability with his batting and his drama. I'd like to see Khawaja get a shot at 4. Lets give him some rope and see what he does with it.

I like what Smith did against the spinner so he could take the 6 spot. Although Henriques would give another bowling option. Is one clearly better versus the moving ball?

3rd fast bowler is open since I'm not sure who will be fit. Bird, Starc, Harris, Hilf all candidates in front of MJ. Its the Ashes, ****, anyone but MJ.

I'd like to cut Cowan and open with Hughes but then we need a new 3 and a 4 which kind of blows. Cowan is steady and tbh showed more than Warner in India. Clarke stays at 5 cause if aint broke you dont fix it.

 

[Viscount Tom]

Except that the n0.3 slot is still broke for Aus, they might as well try Clarke at 3 in the long run because at the moment he can't shape a match if the openers go because the 3-4 slots usually seem to fail with them leaving Clarke to try and fix the damage.

 

[Pothas]

Would be delighted to see Clarke at 3 from an England perspective, would be a very good chance that he would be exposed very early a lot of the time.

 

[Cabinet96]

Hughes should still get the gig for me. The circumstances he faced in India will be vastly different to those he'll face in England, and his form during the domestic season, and even the Sri Lanka series, shouldn't be forgotten just because of a bad tour. He's reasonably experienced in England too compared to many of the alternatives.

 

[sphynx]

Except that the n0.3 slot is still broke for Aus, they might as well try Clarke at 3 in the long run because at the moment he can't shape a match if the openers go because the 3-4 slots usually seem to fail with them leaving Clarke to try and fix the damage.

Yeah, certainly failed to shape a match in the exact same situation against South Africa.


259* and 230 on the trot.

 

[sphynx]

To give you an indication of how ****ed Oz thinking is atm ......

Bird's fc record is distorted because he is a bowler that plays at bowler-friendly Bellerive

Butterworth's fc record is distorted because he is a bowler that plays at bowler-friendly Bellerive

Cosgrove has scored 9000 runs @ 40+ including 800 this year

His home ground - bowler-friendly Bellerive

Bellerive has been a road since christmas........

Bugger all rain for the southern states for months.

 

[Viscount Tom]

Yeah, certainly failed to shape a match in the exact same situation against South Africa.


259* and 230 on the trot.

Flatter pitches and he still had Hussey or someone else making runs.

He's probably not going to have that in England with the batsman he's got, so I think he should bat at 3 its not like we've got the blokes to make him uncomfortable as we did last time round in Flintoff and Harmy.

 

[adub]

Nothing has changed my opinion from previously. Harris has only underlined why now that he's fit he has to come straight back into the side. Him and Pattinson with the new pill will test out the England top order better than any other option. Siddle v Bird is still a close one for me as the third seamer, but I'd prefer Bird just if he's fit.

For the batting I don't think we can continue to overlook Rogers. Must come in and tighten up the top three. We just aren't in a place where we can ignore a guy with almost 19,000 fc runs @50 (including about half of those in England) if he's keen to play. He could be a real bonus for us.

And despite the fact he struggles to turn his 50s into hundreds and looks like he ate a team mate Cosgrove is the next best option we have available as a back up bat.

Watson can get ****ed. I'm a huge fan of his bowling since he's slowed the pace up a little and discovered swing, and if he was fit I'd squeeze him in the side as the 4th seamer batting 6, but there is no way he can command a spot on batting alone, let alone being the VC. We had it right last year against India, either bowl or stay home.

 

[pup11]

I really dont understand the fuss about either Coulter-Nile or Faulkner (well, tbf, it's only you and Warnie )

NCN is quick but erratic and hardly moves the ball at all whilst Faulkner is no better than the 4th best bowler in Tassie

I also think that people need to stop talking about Rogers as he is highly unlikely to be picked and that is probably overstating his chances

I rate Coulter-Nile because of what he brings to the table, he is not only quick but also probably the best exponent of reverse swing in Australia atm, which would be very handy in conditions where there won't be any help for the bowlers. As for Faulkner not only is he an accurate bowler but he is pretty skillful as well, its highly unlikely that Starc would be back playing cricket anytime soon, so in his absence Faulkner is the next best left arm seamer in Australia and his Shield record over the last few seasons has been right up there as well, the fact his batting too has come along very nicely in the last 12 months only just makes his case even more stronger.

As for Rogers, sure he is 35 and in an ideal scenario we could have said that he has missed the boat in terms of an international comeback, but the current situation is far from ideal, so we need to look at our best available resources and in terms of openers Rogers is way ahead of everyone in the country atm. I really don't have anything against Cowan, seems like a top bloke and works very hard to make a bowler earn his wicket, but the fact of matter is that he is just not good enough to persist with at this level.

 

[howardj]

Bringing in Harris and S'OK beefs up the bowling nicely

Harris, Pattinson, and Bird/Siddle, and S'OK looks a decent attack

 

[vic_orthdox]

Obviously we haven't treated Lyon badly enough yet.

 

[pup11]

Bringing in Harris and S'OK beefs up the bowling nicely

Harris, Pattinson, and Bird/Siddle, and S'OK looks a decent attack

Would love Harris playing in the Ashes but even if we forget how injury prone he has been, the fact of the matter is, for a fast bowler he is no spring chicken at the age of 33-34 and on top of that he has a degenerative knee condition along with a dodgy shoulder, so to put it simply the odds are stacked against him and its highly unlikely either him or Cummins would last through a 5 test series.

Bird too has stress fractures in his lower back so he is unlikely to make it either, would be great if we can squeeze out two or three games out of Harris during the Ashes, but we have to look at all our realistic options as well because sustained pressure and quality is the only thing that is going to win us the Ashes.

As for Lyon, again he seems like a real team player but as a spinner he really doesn't fit into any role in the team, he is neither effective at blocking an end up nor is he a sort of spinner who can run through a batting order and win you a game in spin friendly conditions, SoK is not only a wicket-taker but he is very accurate bowler as well so he has that added ability to keep a check on the runs.

The other factor is Lyon is a simple old fashioned off-spinner without any real variations, so against a team predominately full of right handed batsmen like England, he could easily be nullified and milked for easy runs, with a left arm spinner like SoK we would have someone turning the ball away from the bat which would prove to be far more dangerous.

 

[Spark]

Of all the bizarre and absurd things howardj has suggested, dropping a spinner on the back of a 9 (should've been 10) wicket haul in a match has to be one of the most outlandishly stupid.