The test 12 I think they'll pick:
Papps
Fleming
Sinclair
Styris
Astle
Oram (batsman only?)
McCullum
Vettori
Wiseman/Mills
Wilson
Tuffey
Explanations....
1/ I've put Fleming in at opener, reading between the lines from CD putting Sinclair back to #3 in the SC recently. Before Christmas he shared a 200+ opening partnership with Jamie How, so you'd think Bracewell would've been p***ed off that CD are no longer giving him chances to get further acccustomed to the role. Instead, we didn't hear a peep out of Braces to my knowledge.
2/ The test series in SA next season shouldn't be written off as an automatic loss (who knows, Bond may be back), which makes it even more important that the BCs figure out who their best opening partnership is before then.
Papps seems as camped on the front foot as ever, and got hit on the shoulder by Ash Turner(!!) on a fairly placid Basin surface the other day. If AUS plays Brett Lee it could get pretty brutal, but I hope the selectors are now prepared to either put Papps under that sort of microscope or rule him out of the SA tour completely. I still remember what Graeme Smith said about ordering some "extreme pace and bounce" in the pitches for that tour!
I think we can virtually rule How out of the AUS tests after his "I've got a lot to learn...I'm not sure I'm ready to face Brett Lee and Glenn McGrath" comments in the Sunday paper. Personally I'd quite like to see him debut in the McLean Park test v. Sri Lanka.
Craig Cumming has probably had the most consistent domestic form of anyone, but I get the impression from Richard Rash (a relative of his) that he's already joined the likes of Gary Stead and Matthew Bell on the 'sorry, we've seen enough to know you'll never make it' scrapheap.
3/ Wiseman may make the XI to ease Vettori's workload (let's face it - we'll occasionally be looking at 140-160 overs to dismiss AUS), and because Bracewell has been quite open about his love for spinners working in tandem. Obviously it would be very unusual for a NZ side to play two spinners in a test at home, but I can see it happening if the dry weather continues. The Basin in particular shapes as being a medium-pacers' graveyard.
4/ If the ball isn't going to deviate off the deck, Tuffey and his scrambled seam haven't shown me anything that will prevent the Aussies from really teeing off against him. I still expect him to be chosen though, being the closest thing we have to experience in our available seamers.