It's funny, I remember that last Test series (2008) being 'closer' in both Tests but the first 3 days of test 2 was a washout, so it was really just the first Test (and the ODI series of course, but they're not Tests). Looking at that side, Vettori obviously saved us from humiliation in the first innings but we solidified well in the 2nd to chase down 317 (Vettori batting at 4). I think that side was also kinda always reliant on the Vettori 'I'll dig us out' factor a bit too, so with him out I think it'll be interesting to see how we go here (if we do get some play...) because of our weak batting efforts of late. It'll be interesting because there are only TWO players from that Test in the current squad; Taylor & McCullum.
Batsmen from then who aren't here now:
How
Redmond
Flynn
Ryder
AR:
Oram
Elliott
Ryder is only loss, really. So I think it'll be an entirely different game. No Vettori to save us with the bat or ball. Remember our bowling attack for those tests were the venerable Mills, an awesome O'Brien, Vettori, Jeets, Oram (who took no wickets) and Elliott didn't bowl in the wash out. I think, overall, our bowling attack is actually quite even. The lack of a class spinner is the biggest detraction of the current squad, while Boult and O'Brien being leading strike bowlers on similar footing (though Boult more dangerous). We played two spinners then so our third seamer was Oram. In terms of the rest, Wagner, Bracewell & Gillespie/Martin/Sodhi>Mills, Oram, Patel. I don't see us playing two specialist spinners in the first test at least but we do have Williamson who I wouldn't be surprised if he picked up more wickets than Sodhi if he were to play.
Openers:
Redmond & How vs Fulton & Rutherford. The latter take this one, I think. How was on his 2nd chance iirc, while Redmond was in the middle of his only stint in the side. So actually, the opening combo is not too dissimilar in terms of experience, except Fulton is more accomplished and experienced and has scored a couple of centuries, while you could argue Rutherford>How>>>>Redmond in the talent department.
The middle order:
Ryder, Taylor, McCullum, Flynn, Oram/Elliott vs Williamson, Taylor, Brownlie, Watling, McCullum. The first line up looks better because of Ryder and Oram (who was a decent bat once upon a time). It's more Flynn, Oram/Elliott vs Williamson, Brownlie and Watling which is harsh on the first lot really. The second group is superior when we can't consider Ryder.
I also just realised that Flynn and Ryder we the inexperienced ones on that tour. It was Ryder's debut, Flynn's second series and Taylor's fourth. The bowling attack and the rest of the bats ranged from very to fairly experienced. I think our current side has more potential despite inexperience, and don't have the same culture of losing/relying on Vettori. It will be interesting to see how our pace attack goes with one more genuine seamer likely to play than last time.
NZT's XI:
Rutherford
Fulton
Williamson
Taylor
Brownlie
Watling
McCullum
Martin
Wagner
Gillespie
Boult
Could be a good series for Anderson to cut his teeth but I'd do so in the 2nd test if we win the first (providing we actually get some play). Was 50/50 on Gillespie/Bracewell but I think G-pie deserves a crack.
As for Bangladesh's chances, I think they have more chance this time round. I think they have a better side than last and we're more prone to embarrassing batting collapses.