England name their squad today.
Reckon Stokes comes in for Woakes. And possibly they add a spinner to the squad. Possibly Gareth Batty. With the weather the way it is (dry and warm) they will probably feel the need to at least add the option of having another spinner.
I reckon they'd like to select Monty but at this point he's virtually unselectable. With the disciplinary problems and not bowling particularly well it's gonna be tough to select him. He also still averages 41 with the ball against India even taking into account his heroics on the last tour.
Kerrigan in all likelihood would be slaughtered by the indian batting. He's had an ok season but there isn't going to be a huge amount of faith in him stemming from his debut.
Riley is too young and untested
Batty is bowling really well according to reports. Getting good drift and turn. Bowls long spells accurately. Quite importantly he is an aggresive, combative figure. With Cook as captain someone like Kerrigan who probably lacks a bit of self confidence could struggle and not be used but Batty is a strong character and Cook would be able to rely on Batty and Batty have the confidence to come through what could be a tough series. At 36 it's not a long term option and sooner or later England will have to go back to Panesar (if he gets it together) or go with a Kerrigan or Riley - but at present none of these are good options. It'd be better if they could select kerrigan or Panesar instead of Batty because they spin it in the opposite direction to Ali.
Ali's ton in the last game causes some issues obviously. Before that they could drop him fairly easily and bring in Panesar or Batty and bring in Stokes for Jordan/Plunkett but now the top 6 all have reasons to be selected so someone is going to be unfortunate if they have to play Panesar/Batty/kerrigan/whoeverspinner.
1st test is at Trent Bridge so they'll probably play Cook, Robson, Ballance, Bell, Root, Ali, Stokes, Prior, Plunkett, Broad, Anderson anyway as seam and swing are generally more useful at TB than spin but with the prolonged dry spell we're having the later tests at Lords, Ageas Bowl, Old Trafford and the Oval will likely be flatter with possibly more in them for the spinners.