*Official* English Football Season 2015-16

[Cabinet96]

All three would've been on extremely high wages, which they wouldn't have been keen to cut, so the transfer fee needs to be low to compensate the buying club for taking them on. It's pretty good business for the club. None of the three are good enough anymore.

Getting any type of fee for RVP was great business. Would've cost you another £13m (from reading he was on £250k a week) to have him this season then you probably would've lost him for nothing. So it's saved you over £15m which could buy a decent CB or go towards funding a superstar.

Also makes the initial transfer look a really good one now.

 

[Ikki]

Thought this was really good. https://sports.vice.com/en_us/artic...ed-football-inflation-and-the-transfer-window

Tomkins is an enjoyable read, and knows his **** when it comes to money in football - he's also an LFC fan. It shows how incredible 13/14 was for us, and even moreso for Atletico. Money, unfortunately, is the key these days. The only way to succeed is to have a core of players scouted cheaply or developed within a club and have them for a few years. Actually, that or basically revolutionising the game through novel/underused tactics. That'll bring the football club up as a whole.

 

[Furball]

This is deeply unpleasant - must be the worst away kit I've ever seen

You appear to have linked to something other than a Celtic kit.

 

[Uppercut]

It's a great article but I have so many issues/further questions about his methodology. Also I want to see the full list of most expensive players adjusted for football inflation.

Just found his website though. All really interesting.

 

[Furball]

Thought this was really good. https://sports.vice.com/en_us/artic...ed-football-inflation-and-the-transfer-window

It's just nuts seeing how much money has poured into the game in the last 23 years.

 

[Ikki]

It's a great article but I have so many issues/further questions about his methodology. Also I want to see the full list of most expensive players adjusted for football inflation.

Just found his website though. All really interesting.

Yeah, his website has a lot of good articles and explains his methodology. He's actually adjusted the prices for inflation in previous articles to show what it means for squads in the past.

One of the key things you get from his work, apart from money being such a huge factor in where a team will end up, is that roughly 40% of transfers are successes across the board. Even when you take the record breaking transfers; that only nudges up to ~50% success. Shows how hit and miss transfers can be and that if you go into any manager's successes that they've got plenty of duds.

 

[Furball]

Is there an article which explains what qualifies as a success though? I got the feeling that someone like Rio Ferdinand would count as a flop because he left on a free at the end of his contract.

 

[Uppercut]

Yeah that needed to be cleared up. The 40% figure I'm not sold on. Seems arbitrary.

 

[Ikki]

There is but I can't remember when he posted it. He's pretty prolific. I think it's all available in his book, which is well supported by the likes of Jonathan Wilson. I think a big part of it was how many appearances you made. Rio certainly wouldn't be a flop.

Actually, I think this one explains it; I haven't read through it since it was posted though.

http://tomkinstimes.com/2014/06/tomkins-law-only-40-of-transfers-succeed/

 

[Uppercut]

But he could draw the line anywhere. It's the fact that two discrete sets are used that makes the statement meaningless. It would be like saying that 74.2% of all premiership clubs are bad at football.

 

[Ikki]

He could but he doesn't. Essentially, he looks at the fee a player is bought and sold, with regard to how many appearances they make based on their availability. You could make the claim that any model devised by anyone is arbitrary, but it's not that nonsensical or arbitrary to make the results ridiculous. I don't think he claims it's a perfect model - in fact, he routinely disclaims that - but even if it was within 10% of error (which is a lot considering how many transfers he's gone through) it still shows that on the whole the transfer business is very risky.

I've been reading about it for years and as a guide it's pretty great. Anything Tomkins writes in general is worth reading; but apart from the transfer stuff it's mostly Liverpool-centric.

 

[NUFAN]

Nani is a total Cinderella player for mine. Surprised Spurs didn't try and buy him.

Always late for the ball?

I wouldn't mind if we bought him btw. Can't wait for Saturday, really looking forward to Schweinstiger in action. Hopefully there is a lull in the cricket for the duration of the match.

 

[GIMH]

Always late for the ball?

I wouldn't mind if we bought him btw. Can't wait for Saturday, really looking forward to Schweinstiger in action. Hopefully there is a lull in the cricket for the duration of the match.

Would have thought England will have it won by kick off time mate

 

[Lillian Thomson]

Even LT is coming out with the WWE references now. Taking over the forum.

Oh crap. Duly edited. I didn't realise that's where it came from. I thought it was from a Bonnie Langford seaside special. WWE is the worst thing on TV save for Big Brother and repeats of Batman.

 

[Tangles]

Always liked Rafael and thought he got a bad rap from some United fans. There were many games where he was our best attacking player. Being a right back that says things about the rest of the team but I knew we would create chances when he was playing. Defensively he like to dive in and play physically even when that was a bad idea.

 

[duffer]

Oh crap. Duly edited. I didn't realise that's where it came from. I thought it was from a Bonnie Langford seaside special. WWE is the worst thing on TV save for Big Brother and repeats of Batman.

Oh god. So good.

 

[duffer]

I've made peace with us not making another marquee signing this window. I think the intent is there but can't see who is available who'd be a major upgrade for us. Happy to roll with what we have until January at least.

 

[sledger]

Oh crap. Duly edited. I didn't realise that's where it came from. I thought it was from a Bonnie Langford seaside special. WWE is the worst thing on TV save for Big Brother and repeats of Batman.

Lucha Underground fan eh?

 

[Cabinet96]

I've made peace with us not making another marquee signing this window. I think the intent is there but can't see who is available who'd be a major upgrade for us. Happy to roll with what we have until January at least.

I now want the window to shut immediately before Chelsea sign some defenders and United and City make big signings.

 

[Ikki]

These two are just born to do everything together