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*Official* Bangladesh in the West Indies 2018

Mr Miyagi

Banned
Don’t look at a poll in isolation IMO. Particularly with a sample size of 1000

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo
41.3% That's a decent chance before a campaign at an "electoral college" victory before even flaming the Iranian leader on twitter (You deep down just know many Americans loved that response that elected the first time on xenophobic policies like a wall with Mexico - regardless of how "non-presidential" the tweet was).

He doesn't need 50.1%. It is all about the electoral college, regardless of stats and the popular vote :P
 
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TheJediBrah

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Also depends who he's up against. He can have a 30% approval rating but if the democratic candidate has a 25% approval rating he'd still be the favourite I guess.
 

Mr Miyagi

Banned
Also depends who he's up against. He can have a 30% approval rating but if the democratic candidate has a 25% approval rating he'd still be the favourite I guess.
Not quite, they filter the main election to repub, demo and independent. Independents can split the vote as you suggest, but the approval rating right now will be split with several potential Demo nominees. He will only run against 1 demo nominee for the main election.

So there is a party vs person split to be had which is variable. Do people like policies more or the person more? He has the NRA, extreme racists and anti-abortionists in his palm already before even discussing economics and wider social politics.

Who's tallying the votes for Florida in 2020?
 
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TheJediBrah

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Not quite, they filter the main election to repub, demo and independent. Independents can split the vote as you suggest, but the approval rating right now will be split with several potential Demo nominees. He will only run against 1 demo nominee for the main election.

So there is a party vs person split to be had which is variable. Do people like policies more or the person more? He has the NRA, extreme racists and anti-abortionists in his palm already before even discussing economics and wider social politics.

Who's tallying the votes for Florida in 2020?
None of this has anything to do with what I said
 

Mr Miyagi

Banned
Also depends who he's up against. He can have a 30% approval rating but if the democratic candidate has a 25% approval rating he'd still be the favourite I guess.
Not quite, they filter the main election to repub, demo and independent. Independents can split the vote as you suggest, but the approval rating right now will be split with several potential Demo nominees. He will only run against 1 demo nominee for the main election.

So there is a party vs person split to be had which is variable. Do people like policies more or the person more? He has the NRA, extreme racists and anti-abortionists in his palm already before even discussing economics and wider social politics.

Who's tallying the votes for Florida in 2020?
None of this has anything to do with what I said

*sigh*

Okay, Donald Trump as the Republican incumbent 1 term in is typically guaranteed Republican party endorsement so he won't be an independent should he run again. He will be the Republican nominee. (They could withdraw it, but the likelihood is that if he's not impeached by then, they won't.

So lets say he has an approval rating of 30% vs other candidates. And the highest rating democratic nominee is 25%. There is a potential split party vote there between republicans who say like Hillary more than the Republican politcs,

Sen. Bernie Sanders

Sen. Elizabeth Warren

Sen. Kamala D. Harris

Former vice president Joe Biden

Sen. Cory Booker

et al

Same with potential but unlikely repub nominees:

Senator Bob Corker

Carly Fiorina

John Kasich

Senator Ben Sasse

Which are all splitting the vote between repub and demo leaders on the person themselves and not the policies.

So when it becomes a two horse race plus independents, those split party approval ratings go out the window for final candidates. It is all about the final candidates. Each party puts up 1 each plus independents final.

So yes TJB, I replied on point, you just didn't realise it.
 
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TheJediBrah

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It is all about the final candidates.
M8 that's all I was talking about lol

you've misunderstood me completely, shocker

Unless I'm mistaken this is mid term approval polling. My point is that if whoever ends up as Trump's opposition in 2020 has an even lower approval rating than him, then his low approval rating now isn't indicative that he'll struggle to win the election. I thought that was pretty clear.
 
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Mr Miyagi

Banned
M8 that's all I was talking about lol

you've misunderstood me completely, shocker
Well when you have independents at 45% and republican at 30% and Demo at 25%, most people in the real world are going to misunderstand you.

But hey, you love indi more than Americans have historically done and assume the 45% aint favouring a particular indi, more power to you :)
 
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TheJediBrah

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Well when you have independents at 45% and republican at 30% and Demo at 25%, most people in the real world are going to misunderstand you.

But hey, you love indi more than Americans and assume the 45% aint favouring a particular indi, more power to you :)
see:

Unless I'm mistaken this is mid term approval polling. My point is that if whoever ends up as Trump's opposition in 2020 has an even lower approval rating than him at this time, then his low approval rating now isn't indicative that he'll struggle to win the election. I thought that was pretty clear.
I am talking about there approval polling. Not the percentage of votes they will get. Of course they're not going to be 30% v 25% in the final voting ffs

You always do this, deliberately (or subconsciously, I don't know) completely misread someone's post so that you can "correct" them on something
 

Mr Miyagi

Banned
see:



I am talking about there approval polling. Not the percentage of votes they will get. Of course they're not going to be 30% v 25% in the final voting ffs

You always do this, deliberately (or subconsciously, I don't know) completely misread someone's post so that you can "correct" them on something
Huh?

Unless I'm mistaken this is mid term approval polling. My point is that if whoever ends up as Trump's opposition in 2020 has an even lower approval rating than him, then his low approval rating now isn't indicative that he'll struggle to win the election. I thought that was pretty clear.
lol Trump would actually have a decent chance if she [Hillary] did

Huh?

1 Trump doesn't have a low approval rating (on any measure).

2 He doesn't need Hilary to run to have a half decent chance of winning.

3 He does not need the popular vote. Electoral colleges favour republican candidates.
 

TheJediBrah

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Huh?






Huh?

1 Trump doesn't have a low approval rating (on any measure).

2 He doesn't need Hilary to run to have a half decent chance of winning.

3 He does not need the popular vote. Electoral colleges favour republican candidates.
jfc still nothing to do with anything I said
 

James90

Cricketer Of The Year
**** me.

I worry that with Ireland and Afghanistan becoming flavour of the month, and Bangladesh playing woeful cricket against teams they should beat, that the gradual march of progress has come to a halt. They look very much like a team in decline at the moment.
 
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Gnske

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Just caught up with this thread.

I feel better about the quality of my posts now.
 

Beamer

International Vice-Captain
Shimron is going to be such a boss. A proper West Indian batsman. Aggressive intent and a positive mindset but aligned with decent footwork. I would say he's our best prospect since Adrian Barath. I really really hope he doesn't go down the same route as Adrian!

Still think our ODI side is super ordinary though. Very decent openers in Gayle and Lewis but Shai Hope scores too slowly to cause anyone problems in modern ODI's and Mohammed is very run of the mill. Our bowling also lacks extreme pace. They really ought to be trying some spinners and pacers out with the World Cup in mind.
 

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