There really needs to be some betting option for cash on this site. Bet you are so wrong.
I think NUFAN is right, but for different reasons.
Copeland's problem is that he bowls at about 75mph. Conventional wisdom says that a Test bowler needs to be 10mph faster to be any good, so Copeland is already fighting against some massive ingrained prejudice. Regardless of how many FC wickets he takes, regardless of how cheaply he takes them, people are always going ti say 'yes, but he won't get international batsmen out bowling at that speed.'
If Copeland goes to South Africa and fails, then people don't have to search for a reason why, they already knew that he was too slow for international level. But what will be an even bigger problem for Copeland is that if he succeeds, people won't trust that success because it goes against everything they know. When you 'know' that Copeland is too slow, if he succeeds then people will seek excuses for why he's done so well, because the excuse will make more sense than accepting the idea that someone who only bowls at 75mph can succeed at Test level. We're already seeing the excuses start with Mickey Arthur's comment that Copeland's been helped by bowler friendly Shield wickets. And Arthur isn't some journalist who doesn't have a clue about the game; he's an ex-South Africa coach who now coaches WA in the Shield, so we'll assume he knows what he's talking about. This is the sort of prejudice from within cricket that he'll have to face.
If he succeeds, it'll be because the pitches are helping him/the batting lineup he's bowling to is crap or woefully out of form/his success is a total fluke and he'll regress back to the mean. Regardless of what he actually does between now and Boxing Day, it'll take a selector with balls to back him for the series against India, because trusting his success will be harder than trusting your instinct that a powerful batting lineup like India's will murder a guy who trundles the ball down to the other end at 75mph.
