***Official*** Australia in South Africa + South Africa in Australia 2016/17

[OverratedSanity]

The day he starts standing up for his enemy (Weldone) against his own clan (the RANDI) and the CW status quo who pick on him and bully him is the day I will accept him as Gandhi.

Daemon made the Why can't we be friends thread precisely to stand up for guys like weldone. He even mentioned him by name in the op. He's gandhi. And it's really ****.

 

[OverratedSanity]

Batting genuinely was difficult in that final session. Can't see how anyone can call the declaration stupid... You can disagree with it, but surely you can see why he did it. There clearly was movement on offer.

 

[Scaly piscine]

If the series was level Faf would never have declared, I think even if we were playing Ireland we would not have declared. Faf declared in the context of the series and to put all the pressure on Australia, Khawaja and Renshaw played well so fair play to them.

And the last wicket partnership was 39 runs, how would they score another 20-30 runs on average? Is the average last wicket partnership at Adelaide 69 runs?

That's not how it works. If the average last wicket partnership was 40 does that mean they're going to score another run and get out? No of course not. Does a guy who averages 50 always score 50?

I am looking at how many more runs they would score, on average, given that situation. When a partnership has scored 39* off 5.5 overs already, both guys are 'in' as they're going to get and there's still 4 overs until the new ball, then that all works in their favour. The projection alters constantly depending on who's on strike. It's like the spread betting over/under point may be another +22 runs say. If an over ends and Shamsi is on strike next over with Starc bowling then that over/under point will drop because there's a greater chance of an imminent wicket. If du Plessis is on strike against Smith, then that +22 goes up a little bit because the chance of a wicket diminishes, as well as the chance of runs being scored going up. The changes are relatively small, because obviously you're still expecting another few overs of the partnership and so a few extra balls that one of them faces is a relatively small factor.

 

[TheJediBrah]

Explain it to me then, how would they have scored another 20-30 runs on average?

He's saying that given the position they were in, that pair would on average score another 20-30 runs, which seems pretty accurate actually. Conservative if anything.

How many runs they scored before that is obviously completely irrelevant, because, as he said, that's not how averages work.

 

[Scaly piscine]

Don't bother. SP thinks any declaration where the team is less than 600 is 'bollocks'.

Not at all, I understand game theory and won a world championship. You're just some random idiot who 'cbf'

Anyone who is interested in trying to understand the mathematics of it I'm quite happy to try and explain the logic to. If you're not interested or intimidated by the discussion then shut up and have the manners to let others get on with it.

 

[Furball]

Batting genuinely was difficult in that final session. Can't see how anyone can call the declaration stupid... You can disagree with it, but surely you can see why he did it. There clearly was movement on offer.

Because it was pointless.

 

[AndyZaltzHair]

Before breaking it down, let's consider the psychological effect. It's a statement coupled with other outside factors that du plessis took the decision. Add to this that there's a high probability of picking up few wickets, it was the right decision.

 

[Compton]

If he declared to 'make a statement' then he's an idiot.

 

[AndyZaltzHair]

If he declared to 'make a statement' then he's an idiot.

Sometimes you have to play the mental game with the opposition. Look at the timing of declaration. Just when he smashed Starc.

 

[kykweer.proteas]

That's not how it works. If the average last wicket partnership was 40 does that mean they're going to score another run and get out? No of course not. Does a guy who averages 50 always score 50?

I am looking at how many more runs they would score, on average, given that situation. When a partnership has scored 39* off 5.5 overs already, both guys are 'in' as they're going to get and there's still 4 overs until the new ball, then that all works in their favour. The projection alters constantly depending on who's on strike. It's like the spread betting over/under point may be another +22 runs say. If an over ends and Shamsi is on strike next over with Starc bowling then that over/under point will drop because there's a greater chance of an imminent wicket. If du Plessis is on strike against Smith, then that +22 goes up a little bit because the chance of a wicket diminishes, as well as the chance of runs being scored going up. The changes are relatively small, because obviously you're still expecting another few overs of the partnership and so a few extra balls that one of them faces is a relatively small factor.

You said they would have scored an additional 20-30 runs on average, you used a figure, that had to be determined somehow? Also as a few posters have said, Shamsi never really looked like he was "in", Faf was also not batting to protect Shamsi as he faced 23 out of the 35 balls in the partnership... So by your assessment a wicket was imminent 65%+ of the time... sounds like they were pretty fortunate to score 39 runs.

I just do not understand how they would have added another 20 runs on "average".

 

[kykweer.proteas]

He's saying that given the position they were in, that pair would on average score another 20-30 runs, which seems pretty accurate actually. Conservative if anything.

How many runs they scored before that is obviously completely irrelevant, because, as he said, that's not how averages work.

They came together on 220/9

How would them adding 59+ plus which is a fifth of the entire score be conservative? or expected, It would have been a damn pleasant surprise.

 

[Dan_M_Bali]

It was a great declaration. End of.

 

[indiaholic]

Faf heard Warner asking the umpire how much time he needed to stay on the field before he could bat

 

[Furball]

Sometimes you have to play the mental game with the opposition. Look at the timing of declaration. Just when he smashed Starc.

Smashing Starc for another 20 would have been more of a statement.

 

[ImpatientLime]

top banter

 

[honestbharani]

And people think the Aussie media does not do this "we are great and we got beat coz ppl cheated/got lucky" 14/0 in 12 overs chasing 259 is safety now?

 

[AndyZaltzHair]

Smashing Starc for another 20 would have been more of a statement.

Yeah but it's like going with the flow. You could see it how he headed towards the dressing room right after smashing that ball.

 

[honestbharani]

lol... Hazlewood has mentioned how annoyed and angry Smith and perhaps Khawaja were about all this. Remember how Dhawan said he was injured and riled up Kohli and led to a bad morning collapse against Australia in the 2014 series? Sometimes in team situations such annoyances can cost things that end up making the difference in the game. I am not saying Smith and Warner are gonna have a cage match now but such differences do happen in the heat of the moment and its great that Faf tried to take advantage of it. Fair play to Renshaw and Khawaja for sticking it out calmly even though I am sure it would not have been the state they had started the innings in. Hazlewood paying grudging tribute to Faf's move that "annoyed" their captain shows it was a good declaration, esp. since the series is anyways already in the bag.

 

[indiaholic]

I find it very difficult to take the series perspective. #AllTestMatchesMatter

 

[honestbharani]

Its not the series perspective though. I am just saying that with them being 0-2 down, Aussies are already in a tough space mentally. By springing this annoying surprise on them, he is giving himself the best chance to take advantage of any looseness arising from those factors on the Aussie side. As I said, the fact that the Aussie openers batted really well should not take away from the fact that this was a good declaration.

I like the look of Renshaw too, tbh. Got ways to go technique-wise from what little I saw of him but seems to have a good temperament already for this level.