***Official*** 4th Test @ The Oval, London - 2nd-6th September

[Uppercut]

Either way, I'm very surprised by just how strong England's odds are.

The bookies always price the batting side in a chase much higher than cricket fans would. There was a long and poorly-aged discussion in the Headingley 2019 thread about how daft the bookies' odds were.

I'm not sure why. A lot of the scepticism of chasing sides comes from their historical rarity, which I don't think counts for that much. But the bookies go very hard in the other direction.

I think calling it even at this point is fair. Having watched that final session I'd rather be looking for 290 runs tomorrow than 10 wickets. If Ashwin was playing I'd almost be calling it for India, but he's not.

 

[White Ball]

I think only a india win or draw a on here draw a slight favourites unless we get 2-3 wickets early

 

[sledger]

Draw probably the most likely. Seems like either side could give up trying to win and play negative cricket relatively easily.

Yeah especially india

 

[fredfertang]

Draw probably the most likely. Seems like either side could give up trying to win and play negative cricket relatively easily.

You'd hope so - proper cricket and all that

 

[ankitj]

This match is getting tense. Siraj and Bumrah need to do Lord's magic again.

 

[Teja.]

The bookies always price the batting side in a chase much higher than cricket fans would. There was a long and poorly-aged discussion in the Headingley 2019 thread about how daft the bookies' odds were.

I'm not sure why. A lot of the scepticism of chasing sides comes from their historical rarity, which I don't think counts for that much. But the bookies go very hard in the other direction.

I think calling it even at this point is fair. Having watched that final session I'd rather be looking for 290 runs tomorrow than 10 wickets. If Ashwin was playing I'd almost be calling it for India, but he's not.

Yeah, tbh, I'd have England at 20%ish here (percentage to win and not odds obv) and the odds are at about 28-30% or so which isn't that big a difference. I assumed the odds would be even less favourable to England than me but was surprised they were that aggressive.

Tbf, again, the last time I checked the odds for a 300ish chase, at the Gabba this year, India had absurdly long odds (around 23 or at about 4-5% chance to win) which I thought could be halved in order to be fair (or at least at around 15 or so). That is why I was shocked at the confidence of the odds on the chasing side here. Tbf, Winviz gave India a 1% shot before day 5 began.

 

[GIMH]

Yeah, tbh, I'd have England at 20ish here and the odds are at about 28-30% or so which isn't that big a difference. I assumed the odds would be even less favourable to England but was surprised they were that aggressive.

Tbf, again, the last time I checked the odds for a 300ish chase, at the Gabba this year, India had absurdly long odds (23-24 or at about 4-5%) which I thought could be halved in order to be fair (or at least at around 15 or so). That is why I was shocked at the confidence of the odds on the chasing side here. Tbf, Winviz gave India a 1% shot before day 5 began.

Home advantage doing some work?

 

[Teja.]

Home advantage doing some work?

Yeah, definitely.

 

[Manee]

Draw probably the most likely. Seems like either side could give up trying to win and play negative cricket relatively easily.

I don't see this happening. Surely hard to force the scoring below 3 runs per over. If they bowl far wide outside off with no movement then England should be able to score off it.

 

[Uppercut]

I don't see this happening. Surely hard to force the scoring below 3 runs per over. If they bowl far wide outside off with no movement then England should be able to score off it.

It's more that they'll cut a lot of overs out of the day by bowling slowly. You'd think the ICC would have changed something when England clinched an Ashes series by tying their shoelaces before every ball, but no.

 

[GIMH]

You'd think the ICC would have changed something when England clinched an Ashes series by tying their shoelaces before every ball, but no.

Pretty sure we won the match you’re thinking of and it was the first of the series.

We did waste some time as the batting team at Cardiff in 09 but not by tying laces. It was Broad in Nottingham 2013, desperately trying to get us to lunch so we could regroup

 

[Lillian Thomson]

If the weather is like it was this evening there'll be little opportunity to waste time. It could be perfect daylight past 7pm and the minimum overs will be bowled. I don't think scoring at over 3 an over will be that easy though.

 

[Anil]

ok now we are officially in the 50-50 phase of the match...

 

[Manee]

It's more that they'll cut a lot of overs out of the day by bowling slowly. You'd think the ICC would have changed something when England clinched an Ashes series by tying their shoelaces before every ball, but no.

Yeh - I don't see it. If England win, it'll be with plenty of overs left. Thakur, Pope, Rohit and Woakes (and others) have showed that if you get your eye in you can score quickly.

 

[Prince EWS]

Yeah I mean the cleaners keep coming round and listening to Big Bang Theory and it's stillr rally annoying, and this week they tried to charge me for an hour and a half even though I'm pretty sure they didn't stay that long. Had enough of it tbh.

They should be:

D R O P P E D
R
O
P
P
E
D

Sacked.

 

[slippy888]

India need to hope to get 2 wickets in the 1st session then they can build on that

 

[Jack1]

If the weather is like it was this evening there'll be little opportunity to waste time. It could be perfect daylight past 7pm and the minimum overs will be bowled. I don't think scoring at over 3 an over will be that easy though.

If England go at just over 2.39 an over for 69 overs tomorrow they will be on 242 with 126 required off 21 overs, exactly 6 per over required. I think it's unlikely they'll score slower than that. The chase will always be on unless they have lost too many wickets to consider the chase with 20 overs left (or already been bowled out).

They need to bat as if it's the first innings on this pitch and not think about that though - they might end up scoring faster than 2.39 without thinking about it - just look to compile a total and to make individual contributions - don't worry about the result until the last 20 overs.

 

[White Ball]

I would like to see Rohit bowl a bit tomorrow spin at both ends

 

[Pup Clarke]

It's time to put Moeen out to pasture. He's had some great moments in an England shirt but just isn't reliable enough - plus he's now 34. Get Critchley or even Dawson if you want a spin bowling all-rounder. Plus think the likes of Crane and Parkinson are probably more effective options now as pure spin bowling options.

Leach has been treated shabbily

 

[Blenkinsop]

Agree Leach has been mucked around but that's also part of the problem with Moeen. Though he has too many bad days I still think he's the best attacking fingerspinner we have. He gives it a proper rip and tries to take wickets.

Dawson isn't the answer to anything. Crane can't even get into his county team. Parkinson has excellent control and turns it but may be too slow to take wickets at Test level.

Adil Rashid is still a quality bowler and a better bat than most but seems to want to focus only on white ball cricket.