tbh this is only something that occurred to me relatively recently, having just assumed that "natural talent" was a very real thing, and I think there is a lot of truth to what you say. However, I do still believe that there are significant differences in "natural talent" between people, perhaps most significantly in terms of your physiology (harder for a tiny guy to be a fast bowler, fast twitch is a thing etc) but also stuff like some people having "naturally better hand-eye" at least to some extent. I'd say the latter can more easily be improved by repetition though.
What I mean is, I imagine that most "sporty" kids can think back to when they were young and how some of the other "sporty" kids just picked things up way more easily and were way better than others. Some of that will absolutely be that the good kids had obsessive parents relentlessly training them at home, but a lot will just be the variation in physical abilities between any two humans. You could say the same about a social cricket team (very much drawing on anecdotal experience) where you've got a group of guys who have all played a similar amount of cricket throughout their lives but there is still variance in ability, and in particular some guys can bowl fairly quick and others bowl garbage, some guys are good fielders and some are horrible, etc.
What I think is underestimated though is that if that middle of the road social cricketer had relentlessly practiced from a young age and stuck at it, they would've probably ended up a hell of a lot better than they did. I suspect though that part of what discourages people from reaching that potential might be their relative lack of "natural talent" at a young age. Like, if you're playing cricket all the time as a kid and there are still other kids who are way better than you, you might be inclined to give up. I think natural talent is real to that extent, it's just that the lesser player probably underestimates how good they could've been had they stuck at it.