Mitchell Santner -Test career averages predictions

[CharlesLara]

This is gonna sound harsh but I have not really seen much outside of an odd innings here and there to suggest some of these number. He'll do well to average 30 with the bat IMO and I can't believe some of you are suggesting sub 35 averages here, he'd have to actually take wickets consistently, or at least bags and I'm not really confident of that AT ALL atm. What's worse is that, who is gonna play in his position?

 

[NZTailender]

I really don't think he's that talented with the bat. He's no mug, but not talented enough to be a 40+ average batter. Also, having the two strings to his bow should give him more confidence with the bat and less fear of failing.

Not now, but with a bit of work he could be pretty decent. He wouldn't be Kane-esque by any means but could be highly effective. By 40+ I mean somewhere between 40 and 43, not 48 or 49.

 

[indiaholic]

That is Ian Bell category. Think he is that good?

 

[Zinzan]

Not now, but with a bit of work he could be pretty decent. He wouldn't be Kane-esque by any means but could be highly effective. By 40+ I mean somewhere between 40 and 43, not 48 or 49.

Put it this way since the other thread is going atm, I don't think Santner has near the talent with the bat that big Jake Oram did.

 

[SteveNZ]

24 with the bat, 42 with the ball. And I'd be surprised if he was a Test regular in 2020.

Batting wise, not great technically, doesn't like short balls over 135km. Great limited overs bowler, 2nd spinner at very best in Test cricket (in conducive conditions).

I will say that he's entitled to prove me wrong by getting better, but who's coaching him? Shane Jurgensen??

 

[CharlesLara]

24 with the bat, 42 with the ball. And I'd be surprised if he was a Test regular in 2020.

Batting wise, not great technically, doesn't like short balls over 135km. Great limited overs bowler, 2nd spinner at very best in Test cricket (in conducive conditions).

I will say that he's entitled to prove me wrong by getting better, but who's coaching him? Shane Jurgensen??

I didn't wanna say it but this on the money. I'm just not sure of his role as bat? specialist 7? Also would like to see some sort of improvement of signs of him being a spinner, this whole containing narrative (which is true, NZ's spinners generally only play a holding role) is a bit of a myth to me, he doesnt try to actually to anythign with the ball so control IMO is the only thing he has going for him.

and the coaching point is spot on, I havent seen any improvement amongst this side for a over a year now, remember when we were optimistic going into the Australian Test series last year?

 

[SteveNZ]

I think we can all agree Santner isn't a No.6's backside, and to me he's not a 7 either - BJ is a 7 - and he averages 38 to Santner's 26. To me you want way more out of No.7 than an average of 26. Number eight, you'd be over the moon with 26 but then you'd want him to be contributing much, much more with the ball.

I'd love him to improve his bowling but yeah, I'd want to know how he's going about that. Vettori's a coach now, you'd hope that translates into mentorship/working with a fellow ND left-arm spinner wouldn't you?

 

[SteveNZ]

What Santner has going for him is you figure half of our Tests are at home, which aren't conducive to spin generally. So you back our seamers to win games, and Santner does a job around them. Then he probably only needs to average 30 with the bat to maintain his spot. I say only, that might be tough for him.

 

[Zinzan]

What Santner has going for him is you figure half of our Tests are at home, which aren't conducive to spin generally. So you back our seamers to win games, and Santner does a job around them. Then he probably only needs to average 30 with the bat to maintain his spot. I say only, that might be tough for him.

He might get a bit of a free pass unless Sodhi comes on with the red ball or someone else comes along. I think they view him as a long term Vettori, so I get the feeling he'll get away with it if he averages the 26 with bat & 37-38 with ball I predict he'll finish up with.

 

[TheBrand]

Bring back Craig. Looked like a new bowler in the one India test he played until he got injured. Was more threatening with drift than any of our other spinners since Vettori. Much better bat too imo.

 

[Zinzan]

Bring back Craig. Looked like a new bowler in the one India test he played until he got injured. Was more threatening with drift than any of our other spinners since Vettori. Much better bat too imo.

Honestly, if we need a back up spinner to Santner, then Craig's the mix along with Sodhi & Patel.

Honestly though, they're all 40-50+ averaging test spinners, so it really isn't going to make much difference if that second spinner is Patel, Craig or Sodhi (although I still think Sodhi has some red ball potential, but we ain't seen it yet).

None are good enough at the moment to push Santner out of that all-rounder/spinners spot.

 

[TheBrand]

Most spinners don't hit their prime till 30+ anyway right? Santner/Sodhi/Craig are all going to get better as they get closer to that I think.

 

[Zinzan]

Most spinners don't hit their prime till 30+ anyway right? Santner/Sodhi/Craig are all going to get better as they get closer to that I think.

I'm not so sure, that is a known theory, but I'd like to see some stats to back it up. Was Warne better after 30? Vettori? I'm not sure they were. Murali was.

 

[TheBrand]

Hmmmm maybe it's just hearsay.

Warne
Pre 30: 72 matches 322 wickets @25.47
Post 30: 73 matches 386 wicket @ 25.36

Vettori
Pre 30: 89 matches 286 wickets @ 33.09
Post 30: 24 matches 76 wickets @ 39.15

Murali
Pre 30: 73 matches 412 wickets @ 23.38
Post 30: 60 matches 388 wickets @ 22.02

Stats don't exactly back it up that's for sure.

 

[Athlai]

After 30

Murali 388 W @22.02
Warne 386 @ 25.36
Kumble 343 @ 30.98
Herath 322 @ 27.65
Swann 228 @ 30.13
Grimmett 216 @ 24.21
Gibbs 215 @ 32.17

(Vettori 76 @ 39.15)

To 29

Murali 412 @ 23.38
Warne 322 @ 25.47
Kumble 276 @ 28
Herath less than 40 wickets in this period
Swann less than 40 wickets in this period
Grimmett 0W
Gibbs 94 @ 22.04

(Vettori 286 @ 33.09)

 

[Zinzan]

Yeah, I thought that might be a bit of an old wives tale that one. Not much in it either way.

 

[NZTailender]

I think it's hard to measure spinners in that sense. A lot of those mentioned are freaks, in a certain way. If you look historically at how spinners have operated and their stats, a lot of those mentioned are exceptions. Vettori is a funny one, because he averaged closed to 40 for ages (and if you remove Bangladesh & Zimbabwe as people like to do, his overall stats are close to 40) and brought it down later on. I think the question is what do we want from a spinner when we play half our matches at home in non-spin friendly conditions, and then another slew in Australia, South Africa and England, which aren't receptive to spin either?

I'd be happy with someone who can average 35. 38-40 is realistic, but only if they go at less than 3.2 and can actually contain for the seam bowlers. Conversely, they need to be up to step their gears up when they have friendly conditions and become threatening.

So far, Craig has shown the most promise in the latter, Santner in the former.

 

[Zinzan]

I think it's hard to measure spinners in that sense. A lot of those mentioned are freaks, in a certain way. If you look historically at how spinners have operated and their stats, a lot of those mentioned are exceptions. Vettori is a funny one, because he averaged closed to 40 for ages (and if you remove Bangladesh & Zimbabwe as people like to do, his overall stats are close to 40) and brought it down later on. I think the question is what do we want from a spinner when we play half our matches at home in non-spin friendly conditions, and then another slew in Australia, South Africa and England, which aren't receptive to spin either?

I'd be happy with someone who can average 35. 38-40 is realistic, but only if they go at less than 3.2 and can actually contain for the seam bowlers. Conversely, they need to be up to step their gears up when they have friendly conditions and become threatening.

So far, Craig has shown the most promise in the latter, Santner in the former.

Yup, Santner fits your critieria perfectly then, Chap currently averages 37, with a ER of 2.95. That latter number is really important to me and is one thing that is overlooked with Vettori in red ball cricket. Sure his SR was never good, but jeez he used to give us control.

 

[Athlai]

Craig is a liability to the rest of the attack.

Economy less than 3 an over: 6 innings
Economy 3 to 4 an over: 10 innings
Economy 4 +: 13 innings

Santner:

Economy less than 3 an over: 8 innings
Economy 3 to 4 an over: 8 innings
Economy 4 +: 5 innings

 

[TheBrand]

I'll have you know that Craig averages 26.72 with the ball in NZ test victories