No, I quite freely admit that people are picked because many people think they "look classy". And I've never wavered from the stance that it's wrong. Success in international cricket (as in any other level of the game) doesn't come from looking good - it comes from getting the figures, because it's runs and wickets (whether you score them and don't lose them or don't concede them and take them) that counts.
Are you delibertely misunderstanding my post or what? The point of 'looking good' at FC level is so that you get selected to play for a higher team and then get the runs and wickets you speak of. It's exceedingly rare for a player to continue to 'look good' at international level and keep getting selected without also performing. Guys like Flintoff, Trescothick and the like looked good but then also got the figures to justify the faith shown in them, despite relatively modest FC stats.
Ian Bell was talked of in 2002 and 2003, when his form was inexplicably modest, so that kinda blows that theory out of the window. Everyone has always talked of Bell as one who "looks" international class. There's a reason for that, though - he's scored runs at just about every level he plays and I'd be hugely surprised and disappointed if the Test level doesn't join that club soon.
Of course. The facts remain, though, that he was picked because of the fact he's performed at all junior levels and that his modest 2003 FC stats are just an aberration which I actually agree with. I think he looks like a decent prospect.
Harmison - I seriously can't believe you'd have the nerve to class him as a success. With the exception of a very brief period (March-June 2004) where he got shedloads of poor strokes he's been a dismal failure in Tests, and totally justified my stance that he should never have been picked because his First-Class record is poor.
We are so NOT going to go into all of the poor strokes which has Harmi has supposedly been gifted and that you so pertinaciously cling to, much in the same way as your explanation for McGrath's success. Say it until you're blue in the face; it's a warped theory based upon dodgy logic and rather conveniently, just about non-quantifiable so you can cling to it and no-one can prove you wrong whilst you keep the decision about what constitutes 'luck' or a 'poor stroke' up in the air. In the professional world where there are people like me who are paid to be accountable for our theories/assertions/arguments, which at 18 years of age you are yet to hit, that makes your assertion right along with first-chances and all the other garbage essentially useless. I do statistical analysis for my job which makes me 1. more accountable and 2. far more experienced than you in the field and I've seen it time and time again; those who don't actually know what they're talking about almost without variation argue over the definitions to obfuscate the debate long enough for those with any vested interest to lose interest in the debate and associated theories.
Unless you can
quantify and define the terms of your argument about 'luck' and first chances, my professional opinion of these bizarre theories of yours will remain; their value rests comfortably somewhere between crap and garbage and I, along with a bunch of other people, will continue to ignore them. And of course, much in the same way you cling to this, if you ever attempt to try to prove your theories on luck and first-chances, you will give me, a professional data analyst, right of reply? Not that you, without any formal training in the science, would actually have the background knowledge to understand my reply. Hence why it would be a total waste of my time. This is not a commentary on your intelligence but your knowledge. You can correct this but it will take a few years, as it took me.
I mean this will all sincerity; if you can show some proof for your theories at the standard I require, I am actually extremely interested in what you've got to say because prima facie, what you're saying sounds non-sensical. If you are able to reverse that, I'd be pleasantly surprised and very willing to listen.
I also mean this with all sincerity; if you can't even frame the terms of reference for your theory, let alone prove it, to a standard which is high enough, don't try.