Let's base some of this argument on the pools set up for the WC.
Pool A has Australia, England, Pakistan, India, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Netherlands.
Pool B has South Africa, Sri Lanka, West Indies, New Zealand, Kenya, Bangladesh, Canada.
Pool A is the group of death. Australia should make it through because of experience and being able to win on South African soil. England may make it but will have to play extremely well. Pakistan will probably make it as their pace attack will do well on South African pitches. India will battle with England for the 3rd spot to get through to the next round. They may struggle because of the extra bounce in the South African pitches. I anticipate that they will squeeze through at England's expense. Zimbabwe are a side capable of an upset but civil unrest at home may make it hard for them. Namibia and the Netherlands are no hope.
Pool B is much easier to predict. South Africa will go through undefeated as none of the other sides will touch them at home. Sri Lanka will also have an easy run and make it to the super sixes. New Zealand will abttle with the West Indies for the 3rd spot with NZ to make it through, just. The other 3 sides will not come close.
I cannot predict who out of the 6 sides that will probably make it through to the sixes, Aus, India, Pak, SAf, SL and NZ who will win but one thing is for sure. South Africa will make the semi finals looking like a million dollars and choke with the line in sight. Hopefully Australia will be the ones to knock them out.
Form at the time will decide the WC not some half baked little tournament now or even the ICC Knock Out Trophy later in the year.