pasag said:
That's abit unfair I think. SL is alluding to the praise given by the ICC to Hair but he doesn't once speak of the 95% or the figures involved. He doesn't imply that those figures have been cooked or are simply wrong as R_D has. R_D has implied that either the report doesn't exist and if it does, it is wrong.
No, but when I say that Craddock should produce the relevant excerpts to explain what it all means, I'm questioning the meaning of the statistics.
Ultimately, IMO, this is irrelevant, because as I said previously, I don't think these kinds of decisions, in an general sense, have much to do with Hair's removal from the panel.
But, because I'm interested on a general level (so this isn't necessarily an attack on Hair's accuracy specifically), I wouldn't mind knowing what "decisions" mean in this context. As in, 253 correct decisions out of 263. Something tells me it's likely to be "batsmen given out where the correct call was made". Because when you think about how many decisions are required a match, 263 would be a very short time frame of evaluation if it really meant "all decisions". With this stipulation, it probably represents around 10 or so tests, give or take, remembering that there aren't 40 dismissals every match. It could be less, it could be a little more.
I don't know how many tests the average umpire adjudicates a year - is 10 around accurate? I would guess it'd be more, but 10 isn't an absolute figure, it could be as many as 14-15. (Hopefully my numbers are ballpark here, I'm a bit haggled today, so if someone spots a glaring error, feel free to correct me.)
Anyhow, if that's the case, then obviously, we are talking about the "batsmen given out where the correct call was made" over a year's tests. If my figure is under the amount of tests Hair adjudicated over the year, then I guess you have to wonder about Craddock cherrypicking a bit.
Of course, this is only one kind of decision. There is also all the "not out" decisions made when a batsman may have been out. I do believe these should be treated slightly more leniently, but I also think they should definitely be evaluated, like everything else. And then there's contentious stuff like not following procedure (ie, not referring to the third ump when a runout is very close or even when a batsmen didn't make their ground and they were called in without a referral, and various other oddities that can occur where the umpire exhibits questionable behaviour or judgement).
I believe that somebody a few years ago (was it Scallywag?) cited a report that said that the general level of accuracy of umpires on the field was 96%. Of course, I'm fairly sure this was still related to "batsmen given out who were actually out" decisions, although we're never really informed as to the specifics of these evaluations. If so, I suspect the umpires are fairly tightly bunched statistically on this kind of evaluation (simply because there is only room for another 4% above the average, so I don't think any of them can be that substantially
down from there).
So it makes you wonder when we talk about really good umpires like say, Taufel, and really bad, like say, Bucknor (just taking our most common opinions at this forum). Is there genuinely so little statistical difference between them, or should we perhaps question the way they are being evaluated? Anyway, it's just a few thoughts to consider.