Long time back I came across a comprehensive analysis of bowlers based on the "value"of the wickets they take. The approach was wonderfully elegant and very logical. The article is not online anymore.
Nevertheless I decided to do the exercise again. I am happy to share the results of my hard work over last 3-4 days with you
Shortlisting the bowlers
For this analysis I chose a total of 41 bowlers. All 24 bowlers in the 300+ club are chosen. And some of the greats from the sub 300 group are chosen too. This includes the 3 great West Indian fast bowlers - Garner, Holding and Roberts. 3 great Australian fast bowlers of 1950's - Lindwall, Miller, Davidson. The great spinners - O'Reilly, Grimmet, Laker and Verity. 3 Great fast bowlers from pre world war I era - Barnes, Spofforth and Lohman. Two recent bowlers out of curiosity - Gillespie and Steyn. And finally out of curiosity - Sobers and Kallis.
The averages of these bowlers are listed below:
Code:
[B]Bowler Bowling Average[/B]
George Lohman 10.75
Sydney Barnes 16.43
Fred Spofforth 18.41
Alan Davidson 20.53
M Marshall 20.94
Joel Garner 20.97
Curtly Ambrose 20.99
Jim Laker 21.24
Fred Trueman 21.57
Glenn McGrath 21.64
Allan Donald 22.25
Richard Hadlee 22.29
Bill O'Reilly 22.59
M Muralitharan 22.72
Imran Khan 22.81
Keith Miller 22.97
Ray Lindwall 23.03
Shaun Pollock 23.11
Dale Steyn 23.13
Waqar Younis 23.56
Wasim Akram 23.62
Michael Holding 23.68
Dennis Lillee 23.92
C Grimmett 24.21
Hedley Verity 24.37
Courtney Walsh 24.44
Bob Willis 25.20
Shane Warne 25.41
Andy Roberts 25.61
Jason Gillespie 26.13
Ian Botham 28.40
Mkhaya Ntini 28.82
Lance Gibbs 29.09
Chaminda Vaas 29.58
Kapil Dev 29.64
Anil Kumble 29.65
Brett Lee 30.81
Jacques Kallis 31.59
Harbhajan Singh 31.66
Daniel Vettori 33.86
Gary Sobers 34.03
Value of Wickets
What the averages don't tell you however is how valuable were the wickets taken by a bowler. A wicket of Harbhajan Singh is not as valuable as that of Sachin Tendulkar. That fact is howerver hidden in the overall bowling averages. In order to put value to every wicket taken, therefore, we can use the career batting average of the batsman dismissed as a proxy. Therefore value of Tendulkar's wicket is about 57 and that of Harbhajan only 16.
Now we can average the values of all the wickets taken by a bowler. Thus bowler X who takes Tendulkar's wicket thrice and Harbhajan's twice in a series (and takes no other wickets) has an average value of wicket of 40.6.
Taking such averages over the whole careers of the chosen bowlers, we get the following ranking based on the average value of wickets:
Code:
[B]Bowler Bol Ave Avg value of wicket [/B]
Bill O'Reilly 22.59 31.56
Mkhaya Ntini 28.82 31.47
Dennis Lillee 23.92 31.27
Jacques Kallis 31.59 31.25
Brett Lee 30.81 31.24
Hedley Verity 24.37 31.23
Keith Miller 22.97 31.17
Glenn McGrath 21.64 31.02
Gary Sobers 34.03 30.93
Chaminda Vaas 29.58 30.74
M Marshall 20.94 30.48
Harbhajan Singh 31.66 30.47
Lance Gibbs 29.09 30.44
Anil Kumble 29.65 30.25
Curtly Ambrose 20.99 30.23
Shaun Pollock 23.11 30.16
Michael Holding 23.68 30.14
Alan Davidson 20.53 30.04
Jason Gillespie 26.13 29.97
Bob Willis 25.20 29.95
Imran Khan 22.81 29.91
Jim Laker 21.24 29.83
Kapil Dev 29.64 29.80
Courtney Walsh 24.44 29.74
Allan Donald 22.25 29.71
Ray Lindwall 23.03 29.59
Richard Hadlee 22.29 29.54
Daniel Vettori 33.86 29.44
Shane Warne 25.41 29.32
Ian Botham 28.40 29.30
Dale Steyn 23.13 29.29
Andy Roberts 25.61 29.01
C Grimmett 24.21 28.99
Fred Trueman 21.57 28.90
M Muralitharan 22.72 28.51
Waqar Younis 23.56 27.65
Joel Garner 20.97 27.15
Wasim Akram 23.62 26.50
Sydney Barnes 16.43 25.02
Fred Spofforth 18.41 20.01
George Lohman 10.75 15.92
Price paid for the value
A bowler however cannot be critiqued for only having a low average value of wicket. Some bowlers may play more games against weeker oppositions. Some may come on to bowl only as first or second change and may get less chance to bowl to top order batsmen.
However if a bolwer does bowl more to weeker batsmen and dismisses them more often, he must also take those wickets more cheaply i.e. must pay lesser price for taking those wickets. This price is the bowling average of the bowler.
Consider the bowler X in the previous example averaged 30 for each wickets (i.e. gave away 150 runs for his 5 wickets). He has effectively paid a price of 30 while getting rid of batsmen that valued 40.6. Another way to look at it is that bolwer X discounted the batting average of the batsmen he bowled to down to 30/40.6 = 73.8%. Lower the "disconut factor" more effective the bowler. A discount rate of 80% would mean that a batsman who averages 50 overall will average 40 against that bowler in duels.
Note that it is immaterial if that "price" paid were runs scored by batsmen the bowler X ultimately dismissed or by others. That's how many runs he gave away in search of those wickets.
With bowling averages and average value of each wicket available with us, we can calculate discount factors for each of the 41 bowlers. Doing this, we get the following ranking on the basis of discount factors:
Code:
[B]Rank Bowler Bow Ave Avg value Discount Factor[/B]
1 Sydney Barnes 16.43 25.02 65.7%
2 George Lohman 10.75 15.92 67.5%
3 Alan Davidson 20.53 30.04 68.3%
4 M Marshall 20.94 30.48 68.7%
5 Curtly Ambrose 20.99 30.23 69.4%
6 Glenn McGrath 21.64 31.02 69.8%
7 Jim Laker 21.24 29.83 71.2%
8 W O'Reilly 22.59 31.56 71.6%
9 Keith Miller 22.97 31.17 73.7%
10 Fred Trueman 21.57 28.90 74.6%
11 Allan Donald 22.25 29.71 74.9%
12 Richard Hadlee 22.29 29.54 75.4%
13 Imran Khan 22.81 29.91 76.3%
14 Dennis Lillee 23.92 31.27 76.5%
15 Shaun Pollock 23.11 30.16 76.6%
16 Joel Garner 20.97 27.15 77.2%
17 Ray Lindwall 23.03 29.59 77.8%
18 Hedley Verity 24.37 31.23 78.0%
19 Michael Holding 23.68 30.14 78.6%
20 Dale Steyn 23.13 29.29 79.0%
21 M Muralitharan 22.72 28.51 79.7%
22 Courtney Walsh 24.44 29.74 82.2%
23 C Grimmett 24.21 28.99 83.5%
24 Bob Willis 25.20 29.95 84.2%
25 Waqar Younis 23.56 27.65 85.2%
26 Shane Warne 25.41 29.32 86.7%
27 Jason Gillespie 26.13 29.97 87.2%
28 Andy Roberts 25.61 29.01 88.3%
29 Wasim Akram 23.62 26.50 89.1%
30 Mkhaya Ntini 28.82 31.47 91.6%
31 Fred Spofforth 18.41 20.01 92.0%
32 Lance Gibbs 29.09 30.44 95.6%
33 Chaminda Vaas 29.58 30.74 96.2%
34 Ian Botham 28.40 29.30 96.9%
35 Anil Kumble 29.65 30.25 98.0%
36 Brett Lee 30.81 31.24 98.6%
37 Kapil Dev 29.64 29.80 99.5%
38 Jacques Kallis 31.59 31.25 101.1%
39 Harbhajan Singh 31.66 30.47 103.9%
40 Gary Sobers 34.03 30.93 110.0%
41 Daniel Vettori 33.86 29.44 115.0%
My key take aways
Around the themes of some of the recent discussions:
- Ambrose is NOT over-rated
- Murali vs Warne debate is settled
- Wasim Akram as a test bowler is a level below some of ATG fast bolwers
Hope you enjoyed reading this
EDIT: Added Kallis.