How much would a batsmen need to average to overtake Bradman?

[subshakerz]

Oh I meant once his career raps up 5-6 years from now.

Lol nice save assuming he plays as long as that.

 

[capt_Luffy]

Lol nice save assuming he plays as long as that.

I genuinely assume he plays 3-4 years more atleast.

 

[subshakerz]

I genuinely assume he plays 3-4 years more atleast.

Fair bit of difference between 3 and 6 years but whatever

 

[TheJediBrah]

I've always said this is a key point in this particular discussion. Stickies were the one thing said to be Bradman's kryptonite, the one thing that brought him back to mortal levels.

And they don't exist any more.

Yeah this is a more convincing argument that he would likely average more in modern times than any argument I've seen to suggest the opposite

 

[capt_Luffy]

Fair bit of difference between 3 and 6 years but whatever

Not much difference between 4 and 5 but whatever

 

[The Sean]

Well the point with bogey teams if that you can have underperformance for inexplicable reasons. And the likelihood of having increases if you play twice as many teams.

I was only being semi-serious about the Windies being a bogey team but yeah I take your point, it would add more variables for sure.

That being said, if Bradman maintained his existing proportions and averaged 75 against his bogey team(s), 90 against his strongest opposition, and 100+ (in fact 150/200+) against everybody else, I reckon he'd likely end up more or less where he already was.

 

[Coronis]

Lol nice save assuming he plays as long as that.

It will be interesting to see where the new gen does end up retiring. The previous ATGs we’ve had this century

Lara - 37
Sangakkara - 37
Ponting - 37
Kallis - 38
Dravid - 38
Tendulkar - 40

Waqar - 31
Pollock - 34
Steyn - 35
Wasim - 35
Donald - 36
Ambrose - 36
McGrath - 36
Warne - 37
Ashwin - 38
Walsh - 38
Anderson - 41

Current contenders ages

Root - 34
Williamson - 34
Smith - 35

Rabada - 29
Bumrah - 31
Cummins - 31

Former contenders

Kohli - 36

 

[subshakerz]

It will be interesting to see where the new gen does end up retiring. The previous ATGs we’ve had this century

Lara - 37
Sangakkara - 37
Ponting - 37
Kallis - 38
Dravid - 38
Tendulkar - 40

Waqar - 31
Pollock - 34
Steyn - 35
Wasim - 35
Donald - 36
Ambrose - 36
McGrath - 36
Warne - 37
Ashwin - 38
Walsh - 38
Anderson - 41

Current contenders ages

Root - 34
Williamson - 34
Smith - 35

Rabada - 29
Bumrah - 31
Cummins - 31

Former contenders

Kohli - 36

Smith is 2 to 3 years at best it seems. Retiring from ODIs is a sign.

 

[subshakerz]

I was only being semi-serious about the Windies being a bogey team but yeah I take your point, it would add more variables for sure.

That being said, if Bradman maintained his existing proportions and averaged 75 against his bogey team(s), 90 against his strongest opposition, and 100+ (in fact 150/200+) against everybody else, I reckon he'd likely end up more or less where he already was.

Well let's say he had two stronger oppositions? Like for example if he played in the 90s he could be facing one of three worldclass pace bowling pairs.

I don't think he averages 150 plus against all the others the way he did against SA and India of the time.

Anyways, my point is that these variables do factor in.

 

[Coronis]

Smith is 2 to 3 years at best it seems. Retiring from ODIs is a sign.

Yeah I don’t think we should be expecting 40. 38 is about right for batsman.

Also forgot Waugh who was 38

 

[The Sean]

It will be interesting to see where the new gen does end up retiring. The previous ATGs we’ve had this century

Lara - 37
Sangakkara - 37
Ponting - 37
Kallis - 38
Dravid - 38
Tendulkar - 40

Waqar - 31
Pollock - 34
Steyn - 35
Wasim - 35
Donald - 36
Ambrose - 36
McGrath - 36
Warne - 37
Ashwin - 38
Walsh - 38
Anderson - 41

Current contenders ages

Root - 34
Williamson - 34
Smith - 35

Rabada - 29
Bumrah - 31
Cummins - 31

Former contenders

Kohli - 36

Smith is 36 in June, and depending on how he's feeling and his form over the next six months, it's conceivable he could call it at the end of the Ashes series next (Australian) summer. That being said, if his resurgence continues, and with an absolutely packed 2026/27 Test schedule for Australia, I could see him pushing on to the 2027 Ashes, or at least the 2027 150th Anniversary Test. I can't see him going longer than that.

Root is 18 months younger than Smith and by the end of the 2027 Ashes series will still only be 36 and likely within 1,000 runs or so of Tendulkar. He'll surely push on.

 

[Coronis]

Smith is 36 in June, and depending on how he's feeling and his form over the next six months, it's conceivable he could call it at the end of the Ashes series next (Australian) summer. That being said, if his resurgence continues, and with any absolutely packed 2026/27 Test schedule for Australia, I could see him pushing on to the 2027 Ashes, or at least the 2027 150th Anniversary Test. I can't see him going longer than that.

Root is 18 months younger than Smith and by the end of the 2027 Ashes series will still only be 36 and likely within 1,000 runs or so of Tendulkar. He'll surely push on.

Yeah I’m expecting a few Aussies to retire around the 150th Anniversary. Smith, Starc, Khawaja and Lyon are all entering that phase. I could see them all go then. (or earlier for some)

 

[the big bambino]

I've always said this is a key point in this particular discussion. Stickies were the one thing said to be Bradman's kryptonite, the one thing that brought him back to mortal levels.

And they don't exist any more.

That's true but with luck you might avoid a wicket when its sticky. I think he'd have had trouble with under prepared wickets that you can get now such as sub con turners and SA (and latterly Australian) green mambas. Then again it might be relative as Bradman still dominated his colleagues on under prepared wickets, though the signature double centuries weren't possible.

 

[The Sean]

Yeah I’m expecting a few Aussies to retire around the 150th Anniversary. Smith, Starc, Khawaja and Lyon are all entering that phase. I could see them all go then. (or earlier for some)

Agreed, though I'll be amazed if Khawaja even goes that long. He'll turn 39 during this year's Ashes series - I reckon that'll surely be it for him.

 

[Coronis]

That's true but with luck you might avoid a wicket when its sticky. I think he'd have had trouble with under prepared wickets that you can get now such as sub con turners and SA (and latterly Australian) green mambas. Then again it might be relative as Bradman still dominated his colleagues on under prepared wickets, though the signature double centuries weren't possible.

tbh I’d also be curious to see how good/bad wickets outside of wet conditions would compare across time, on average.

 

[h_hurricane]

Anything above 80 will make things arguable.

This is like saying Michael Clarke or Kevin Pietersen are arguably better than Hammond.I don't know how many will take that.

 

[subshakerz]

This is like saying Michael Clarke or Kevin Pietersen are arguably better than Hammond.I don't know how many will take that.

It's not really. More like breaking out of the statistical herd is perhaps harder now than before.

 

[the big bambino]

I don’t think it’s easy to break out of the heard in any era. The fact it’s only been done once shows that.

 

[subshakerz]

I don’t think it’s easy to break out of the heard in any era. The fact it’s only been done once shows that.

Barnes. And arguably Hobbs.

 

[the big bambino]

Barnes. And arguably Hobbs.

Dominated but not break outs. Same with Lohmann.