Let's not make KP captain until England are next in SA.
Beyond that, it really does depend on whether the players you mentioned mature over the next 2 years. It can happen - look at Aus between 1986/7 and 1989, where basically the same batting lineup + Taylor toughened up immeasurably after being outclassed by more experienced oppoonents in the earlier series. Obviously it remains to be seen whether Strauss, Bell, Cook & Collingwood will do likewise.
Beyond the batting, there's a lot of guesswork involved. No-one really has a clue who our keeper will be in 2009. Nor do most of us know whether Flintoff will be fit. We do need to blood one or two of the newer quicks before long, so I'd let Harmison spend his summer in the northeast, which is where he seems to want to be anyway. Which, if any, of Broad, Tremlett, Mahmood & Plunkett will come up to scratch is anyone's guess. I suspect that Anderson may be a better longterm bet than Hoggard, although I'd be tempted to play both at the start of our summer.
England could be OK in 2 years time. I'm not saying that we definitely won't. I just worry about the assumption in some quarters that Aus'll be easy meat because of the recent & imminent retirements.
Anyone who's genuinely assuming they'll be easy-meat is pretty delusional. But the simple fact of the matter is, the chances of another Test-class spinner emerging from Australia in the next 10, never mind the next 3, years are very, very slim judging by simple historical trends. The chances of another McGrath are pretty damn small, too - we wait with interest to see how Clark develops.
Do you really, genuinely, expect Plunkett or Mahmood to be up to scratch - ever? 'Cos I certainly don't. Broad and Tremlett are slightly different, but still - you'd have to be extremely optimistic to expect either to come to the party in the immidiate future.
I also find it virtually inconceivable that Harmison will not play the 1st Test of next summer. Even after countless failures and the odd attitude-criticism, there's still been virtually no "drop him" remarks from the Press Pack. Indeed, DF has received far more criticism than Harmison.
I don't see any reason to suspect that Strauss and Bell won't start next summer in the side and score lots of runs. I genuinely hope Vaughan comes through the rest of this winter, sees some sense and retires from ODIs, and starts next summer back in the Test side. Trescothick I'm less certain about, I have virtually no clue about these sorts of states of mind. I'll just say, though, that if he's available and has convinced enough people of his stability I think he should and will play.
The line-up I'd be happiest to see at Lord's on May 17th would be something like...
Trescothick, Strauss, Cook, Vaughan, Pietersen, Bell, Flintoff, Davies (
pending early-season form), Hoggard, Harmison, Panesar.
Bearing in mind, of course, reasonable constraints. There's no way on Earth Panesar won't be picked, even though there's likely to be little in the pitch for him, and as I said, I just can't see Harmison going just yet, especially if he takes a bagful of early wickets a la 2005. Hoggard, obviously, if fit walks in. I trust Vaughan to handle Flintoff's bowling well, and given West Indies' bowling-attack I'd guess we can bank on him "returning to form" there, too.