The Assignment : To prove that Kasprowicz is a better bowler at the death than Wasim Akram
The Constraints : Lack of availability of statistics of the death overs
Modus Operendi : Use the other relevant stats available to show how Kasper HAS to be a better bowler at the death.
What is required to be a good bowler at the death ?
1. To be an economical bowler to start with.
2. To have the ability to bowl well to middle order batsmen (after all it is if they are still there at the end that the job will be tough not if 9, 10 Jack are struggling to get through the 50 overs)
3. To have the ability to bowl tightly in the 21st century's batsman friendly conditions where run rates have touched hitherto unimagined heights.
1. Comparison of Akram and Kasper's abilities against the middle order batsmen.
It may surprise the zillions of sub-continental devotees of the Pakistani Southpaw that he seemed to specialise in handling tail enders !!
Blasphemy ?
No sir !! Fact !
127 of Akrams victim's or 25.3 % of all the wickets he took in limited over internationals were of tail enders(numbers 8 to 11). Kasper has only 9 wickets(13.8%) of tail enders !! Surprised ? Well dont be. There's more.
You may say what has this to do with bowling at the death when we are agreed that its bowling to better batsmen (if they are still there at the death) is what matters. Okay, okay. Only 29.1 % of Akram's victims are middle order batsmen (numbers 4 to 7) while our lion from down under counts a phenomenal 44.6% of all his victims as being from the middle order !!
Thats not all. I am well aware of the sceptics who may rush into the well of the house shouting that there will be cases (howsoever few) when numbers 1 to 3 may also be at the end.
SO. If we add all victims from numbers 1 to 7 (though its less than fair to expect top order to be there often enough to matter) we still find
Akram having only 74.7%
wkts from top and middle order while
Kasper has 86.2 %
of his victims from this august group !!!!
Clearly Kasper has the top batsmen in a tizzy compared to Akram who seems to shrink like a violet before the onslaught of the top and middle order. Clearly this must translate itself into a better performance when faced by these same batsmen at the wicket in all situations of the match including the death overs.
2. Ability to bowl maidens at will !!!.
As is usual with the ignorant or the semi-litterate, people jump at Akrams career figures and wave them in the face of Kasper to try and prove that the former was a more economical bowler. This is a fallacy.
Firstly, Kasper and Akram played in different eras with very little overlap so taking into account Akram's figures for the pre-Kasper era of cricket is stupid.
Secondly, Kasper has been one of the greatest victims of unfair selection policies of his countries cricket authorities.
From the time he made his debut in December 1995 till November 2003, he played in a grand total of 16 ODI's in 8 years !!
2 ODI's per year !! What does one expect by way of consistent performance from a young man in this situation ??
In a similar 8 year period between 1994 and 2002, Akram played
169 ODI's.
OVER 21 ODI's per year !!
And we want to compare them ??
Anyway, in the 18 months since Kasper has played with some regularity(2004 and 2005) playing 24 matches in a year and a half, he has shown himself to be one of the great bowlers for this form of the game.
How do we say that ?
Well what is one of the most difficult things for a bowler to do in an ODI? Bowl a maiden of course.
In the years 2004 and 2005 ,
10.7 % of all overs bowled by Kasper have been maidens !! Can you beat that ??
Akram has a career % of 7.8 !!
Kasper today is 30% MORE LIKELY to bowl a maiden over than Akram was throughout his career !!
3. Finally the much abused economy rates.
Arm chair critics of the 'X_X' variety tend to use averages and economy and strike rates as gospel and use them to prove or disprove this or that. But all they do is to expose their total lack of understanding of the game and its evolution over time.
Everyone knows that the game today has evolved beyond recognition from what it was even ten years ago. And the one area in which it has changed most dramatically is the scoring rates of batsmen. The Sehwag, Gilchrist's Afridi's Gayle's make a mockery of the bowlers economy rate. It is in this tough as nails environment that masters of the art like Kasper have honed their art not in the protected cushy times of Sanjay Manjrekar , Mike Gatting and Atherton.
The real test of a bowler's capacity to contain a batsman has come in the 21st century. It is in this boiling couldren that we decided to compare the great Kasper and the pretender from Pakistan.
In the 21st century,
Kasper has an economy rate of 4.095 (and mind you he has bowled in 2004 and 2005 !!
Akram bowled only in 2000-2003(beginning) and averages 4.142.
Playing only 6 matches in 2003, he found the going so tough, (he averaged 4.28 and 4.23 in 2002 and 2004) that he chose to retire rather than soil his career figures further !!!
I have no doubt that the speed with which Akram's figures were being reworked by the batsmen of the new millenium he would have ended in the upper strata with the great AAgarkar for company.
Between 2001 and 2003 his averag had already moved up by a stunning 0.56 runs per over !!!!
I rest my case.