Biggest test series upset of all time

[HeathDavisSpeed]

Some bookies even use exchanges now to offset liabilities rather than use more traditional bookmaking.

Yeah, we were doing that even back then, but the bookies generally hated doing it as they took some umbrage about management perceptions of the prices they'd set themselves or had got themselves into a place they'd created an exposure. Fascinating business tbh, but really fine margins in a lot of cases.

But my comment was mainly about the difference between now and back in 2005 - where I was, Betfair wasn't the destination of choice to be checking the efficacy of the odds setting. Mainly because for individual, flagged accounts you could accept or reject individual bets, so you could react to the knowledge punter on an individual basis before you'd even accepted the bet - and adjust the odds accordingly if that allowed you to identify an exposure.

 

[reyrey]

Yeah, we were doing that even back then, but the bookies generally hated doing it as they took some umbrage about management perceptions of the prices they'd set themselves or had got themselves into a place they'd created an exposure. Fascinating business tbh, but really fine margins in a lot of cases.

But my comment was mainly about the difference between now and back in 2005 - where I was, Betfair wasn't the destination of choice to be checking the efficacy of the odds setting. Mainly because for individual, flagged accounts you could accept or reject individual bets, so you could react to the knowledge punter on an individual basis before you'd even accepted the bet - and adjust the odds accordingly if that allowed you to identify an exposure.

My point in the earlier post was regarding someone calling betfair SP unreliable vs bookies SP. There is tons of literature out there regarding the accuracy betfair exchange SP. Basically as close to 100% accurate as you can get over a large enough sample size. The over reliance on betfair odds came a fair bit later.

 

[ashley bach]

It's all about volume with Betfair. If there's no serious money in a particular market then it means nothing whatsoever.
On the other hand when there is serious money/volume then it means everything and tends to be the most accurate market around.

 

[TheJediBrah]

TJB is obviously wrong that it was a deluded England mindset. We did win, so factually there were no delusions.

Unless you predicted McGrath stepping on a ball, or were intimately aware of the most insidious and effective* systematic ball tampering in the history of cricket then it was a deluded expectation

*credit to them for that tbf

 

[reyrey]

Unless you predicted McGrath stepping on a ball, or were intimately aware of the most insidious and effective* systematic ball tampering in the history of cricket then it was a deluded expectation

*credit to them for that tbf

It's almost like people forget that Australia were so dominant at that time that they put together the games against a World XI in hopes of giving them some competition. There was also discussion around that time if the Australian second XI would be the second best team in the world.

 

[HeathDavisSpeed]

My point in the earlier post was regarding someone calling betfair SP unreliable vs bookies SP. There is tons of literature out there regarding the accuracy betfair exchange SP. Basically as close to 100% accurate as you can get over a large enough sample size. The over reliance on betfair odds came a fair bit later.

My point was that back in 2005, you're more likely to find legitimate variability away from the Betfair market at the time. Which is parallel to the point you were making.

I guess in the context of Molehill's post, just because Betfair was at 5/1, that doesn't invalidate that a bookmaker could be offering prices away from that. You kinda need to know both sides of the equation in order to determine whether those differentials represent an arbitrage risk or margin variability.

 

[reyrey]

My point was that back in 2005, you're more likely to find legitimate variability away from the Betfair market at the time. Which is parallel to the point you were making.

I guess in the context of Molehill's post, just because Betfair was at 5/1, that doesn't invalidate that a bookmaker could be offering prices away from that. You kinda need to know both sides of the equation in order to determine whether those differentials represent an arbitrage risk or margin variability.

There was actually more volume traded on betfair back then than there has been for the last 5 or so years. So if anything it was more accurate.

 

[GIMH]

Unless you predicted McGrath stepping on a ball, or were intimately aware of the most insidious and effective* systematic ball tampering in the history of cricket then it was a deluded expectation

*credit to them for that tbf

Er no. Like I said. If you predicted an England win, you were correct.

Also saliva being applied to the ball was perfectly legal at the time

 

[Slifer]

If NZ sweep this series, then it'll be the biggest upset and most unexpected test series win in my lifetime.

So as I was saying.....

 

[Migara]

Imagining worst case scenario here - India gets whitewashed at home by NZ but then wins the B/G trophy away.

Australia or India, who would be most embarrassed?

This may well be possible. Australia may just play in to hands of India by giving fast bouncy or flat tracks. If Aussies want to win, they should play on slow tracks, let their pacers squeeze the life out of scoring and let Lyon prosper. Inability of Indian batsmen to whether being bogged down is liely to bring wickets.

 

[OverratedSanity]

If it's fast and bouncy we'll be demolished.

 

[Bahnz]

Now that it's 3-0 I'm prepared to say yes, biggest upset of all time. This is like if instead of Australia beating WI 2-1 in 1995, it'd been England beating them 4-0. No one in a million years could've possibly predicted this. Wait, what's that?

NZ to win 3-0

Correction: no one not **** posting could've possibly predicted this.

 

[flibbertyjibber]

Now it's a 3-0 drubbing then it has to be. India were sewage all series.

Any normal nation would drop some players for Australia but not this lot. They are as deluded as they are arrogant.

 

[trundler]

Yeah I thought SL becoming the first Asian side to win a series in SA was crazier before the final test but the 3-0 scoreline makes NZ's win more staggering

 

[OverratedSanity]

It's surely still SL-SA 2019. The first page of that tour thread was everyone rightly being baffled about the Chandimal non selection and predicting a walkover for SA, people thought they'd be lucky to not get humiliated. Ended up winning 2-0. Made no sense. This NZ series up there too but maybe slightly less so imo. If they whitewash us 3-0 it might match it though.

Yeah this one's the biggest now for sure .

 

[honestbharani]

I think in terms of pre-series expectations, this is definitely the biggest.

I think us winning the BG in the pandemic was a greater win, but this was the greater upset, if that makes sense.

 

[Slifer]

Sorry but I have to ask this. Has this really happened before? That is, a clear number one team getting demolished in home conditions by a (on paper) clearly inferior side? A side who themselves got destroyed in supposedly similar conditions recently (NZ in SL). Where as India yet again completely stuffed a England and Bangladesh at home. Afaic, this really is unprecedented.

 

[Arachnodouche]

Sorry but I have to ask this. Has this really happened before? That is, a clear number one team getting demolished in home conditions by a (on paper) clearly inferior side? A side who themselves got destroyed in supposedly similar conditions recently (NZ in SL). Where as India yet again completely stuffed a England and Bangladesh at home. Afaic, this really is unprecedented.

It's the classic hare-tortoise morality play. Just find it hard to think of the kiwis as tortoises and us the hares

 

[nightprowler10]

It's the classic hare-tortoise morality play. Just find it hard to think of the kiwis as tortoises and us the hares

The Hare and the Tortoise

The Perry Bible Fellowship

pbfcomics.com

India sacrificed itself for the greater good.

 

[HeathDavisSpeed]

I think us winning the BG in the pandemic was a greater win, but this was the greater upset, if that makes sense.

I can understand that view. Something about this recently completed series missed something of the BG win. NZ somehow won 3-0 despite dropping a decent number of catches and being largely inept with their reviews. The win is astonishing, but perhaps at times the quality was a little questionable.