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Betting on the world cup !!
- Thread starter SJS
- Start date
Slats4ever
International Vice-Captain
NZ at 14-1 looks ok
BoyBrumby
Englishman
Ah, but it's a magical feeling going into a bookies with a winning slip. You've weighed up the odds, laid your bet & beaten the system.C_C said:Bah.
If you are gonna bet money, atleast bet on something where you can play a decisive role.
Which is why the only time i bet good money, its in poker!
Betting, like raising & bluffing in poker (are you a no-limit Texas hold 'em man?) is a skill of calculated risk. I once took £83 from a £5 stake on 6 home wins (Association Football). I swear I was nearly hard when I collected!
C_C
International Captain
Seriosly brumbie boyo...the last bit was too much information
Well i dont see the 'skill' in betting on cricket games or 'who's gonna win what' kinda stuff....
its totally outta your control and you are essentially guessing.....with poker atleast you can fold your hand or know how good it is.....
by the way... i play Texas Hold'em, Omaha, 7 card stud.....with pot limit or no limit...depending on how good i am feeling.
BoyBrumby
Englishman
It's a bit more than simple guess work, I suppose what you're doing is financially backing your judgement. Some blokes (& lasses too I guess) are good enough at it to do it for a living. Of course it's never going to be an exact science (if it was my account wouldn't be -£51 for the 2004/05 season!), but it does involve skill of sorts.C_C said:
If you were guessing you may as well stick a pin in a board with the names of the 16 teams in the World Cup....
"Bangladesh? Great! £100 on Bangladesh to win please, Mr Ladbrookes"
BoyBrumby
Englishman
It's basically about beating "the spread". Say Great Britain plays Australia in a Rugby League test. The bookies may offer a spread of Australia to win by 15-20 points. If you fancy Great Britain to lose by fewer than 15 points you would "buy" them at a certain price, say £1. For each point fewer than 15 you would win £1, so an Australia win by 3 points would equal £12 profit. If, however, Australia won by 25 points you stand to lose £5.Mecnun said:
The dangerous thing about spread betting is that it has unlimited liability. For instance when Lara made his 400* the spread was 60-65 runs. Imagine you'd "sold" him (backed against him scoring more than 60 runs). Even at £1 a run that's a hefty loss....
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Thanks BB... I think I got the hang of it. So if an Aus v England ODI. The spread on England batting is 250-270 and I buy ? (i.e back England to score more than 270 at a quid each and England score 300, I make £30.
However if England are all out for 200, I lose £50.
What if England score 260? it's all even or do I lose £10?
However if England are all out for 200, I lose £50.
What if England score 260? it's all even or do I lose £10?
Neil Pickup
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If England are all out for 260 (or 252, or 269, or 258...), AFAIK there's no money changing hands.
You can also buy/sell at increased prices, so buying Lara at 60-65 for a tenner would win you 10 × 335 = £3,350!
An example of this was in the WC99 spreads for "total wides for tournament", when the bookmakers forgot that it was a white ball in England in May with ODI wide rules and got screwed.
You can also buy/sell at increased prices, so buying Lara at 60-65 for a tenner would win you 10 × 335 = £3,350!
An example of this was in the WC99 spreads for "total wides for tournament", when the bookmakers forgot that it was a white ball in England in May with ODI wide rules and got screwed.
Neil Pickup
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Further to that...
Sporting Index Disasters
1999 Cricket World Cup - Number of Wides bowled during the Tournament
This is perhaps the most famous example of the punters knowing more than the bookie. In the 1999 Cricket World Cup we predicted that there would be between 244 and 247 wides bowled during the entire tournament.
We were clearly wrong. The Punters Bible (The Racing Post) tipped the market as a fantastic ‘BUY’ and by the time we had realised the difficulty bowlers would have controlling the swing generated by the white bowl in English conditions it was too late. Before a ball had even been bowled the price had moved into the 500s.
The total eventually reached just under 1000; any one who had bought at just £2 a wide would have won £1,500. The overall loss to Sporting Index was in excess of £350,000.
The World Record - Brian Lara’s 375
Brian Lara’s historic innings of 375 still lives on in spread betting folklore. Trading on this majestic batsman’s runs is always hazardous because no matter what the conditions, state of the match or the price, clients always want to go higher than our prediction.
When Lara created batting history, disaster on a monumental scale was inevitable and it duly registered as a six figure loss. Each boundary cost Sporting Index £1,500 - Lara hit 60 of them!
Sporting Index Disasters
1999 Cricket World Cup - Number of Wides bowled during the Tournament
This is perhaps the most famous example of the punters knowing more than the bookie. In the 1999 Cricket World Cup we predicted that there would be between 244 and 247 wides bowled during the entire tournament.
We were clearly wrong. The Punters Bible (The Racing Post) tipped the market as a fantastic ‘BUY’ and by the time we had realised the difficulty bowlers would have controlling the swing generated by the white bowl in English conditions it was too late. Before a ball had even been bowled the price had moved into the 500s.
The total eventually reached just under 1000; any one who had bought at just £2 a wide would have won £1,500. The overall loss to Sporting Index was in excess of £350,000.
The World Record - Brian Lara’s 375
Brian Lara’s historic innings of 375 still lives on in spread betting folklore. Trading on this majestic batsman’s runs is always hazardous because no matter what the conditions, state of the match or the price, clients always want to go higher than our prediction.
When Lara created batting history, disaster on a monumental scale was inevitable and it duly registered as a six figure loss. Each boundary cost Sporting Index £1,500 - Lara hit 60 of them!
marc71178
Eyes not spreadsheets
£83 for a £5 stake - really living dangerously there (!)BoyBrumby said:Ah, but it's a magical feeling going into a bookies with a winning slip. You've weighed up the odds, laid your bet & beaten the system.
Betting, like raising & bluffing in poker (are you a no-limit Texas hold 'em man?) is a skill of calculated risk. I once took £83 from a £5 stake on 6 home wins (Association Football). I swear I was nearly hard when I collected!
I took just under £600 for going down all 8 Premier games a couple of years back (and the funny thing was I didn't even realise I'd done it when I watched Final Score.
marc71178
Eyes not spreadsheets
Incorrect.Neil Pickup said:
If it's 260 you lose 10 times stake (since you put on money at 270)
You buy at the higher value and sell at the lower (hence the bookies make their money)
The trick to it all is finding a surefire winner (ie one quotes 250-260, other quotes 265-275)
Buy at 260, sell at 265 and profits are yours.
) so as a poor civil servant a fiver is my standard punt!