How is it so unbelievable that a lot of research is needed that apparently wasn't done in the video?
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Besides Root Will Any England Batter Average Over 40 This Decade?
- Thread starter Pavel
- Start date
cnerd123
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I've seen that video and Kimber doesn't actually nail down any one factor that is behind the dip in global batting averages. He just highlighted that it exits and suggested several possible reasons.
I think one reason that he has overlooked is the technical changes in modern day batting. The current generation of players are the first one who have been brought up on limited overs cricket, and I'd like to see some numbers on how often batsmen are leaving the ball when compared to earlier eras, as well as what % of dismissals are now catches behind the wicket. My gut feeling is that modern day players are less willing to leave the ball. Combine that with spicier pitches and better bowling attacks and we get the outcomes we see today.
The Pandemic has definitely disrupted global batting as well. Top quality batsmen need to hit hundreds of balls every week just to maintain their timing and shot selection, and that's impossible to do when you're constantly in lockdowns or COVID bubbles. T20 leagues and white ball cricket have been prioritized over FC cricket and A Team tours during this time too and, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think any country has actually organised a proper FC warmup game before a Test series since this Pandemic began. This definitely plays a role in the downturn in batting averages.
I think one reason that he has overlooked is the technical changes in modern day batting. The current generation of players are the first one who have been brought up on limited overs cricket, and I'd like to see some numbers on how often batsmen are leaving the ball when compared to earlier eras, as well as what % of dismissals are now catches behind the wicket. My gut feeling is that modern day players are less willing to leave the ball. Combine that with spicier pitches and better bowling attacks and we get the outcomes we see today.
The Pandemic has definitely disrupted global batting as well. Top quality batsmen need to hit hundreds of balls every week just to maintain their timing and shot selection, and that's impossible to do when you're constantly in lockdowns or COVID bubbles. T20 leagues and white ball cricket have been prioritized over FC cricket and A Team tours during this time too and, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think any country has actually organised a proper FC warmup game before a Test series since this Pandemic began. This definitely plays a role in the downturn in batting averages.
Spark
Global Moderator
Because it's way beyond the capacity for one person to do? Because you should actually show your working? Because "trust me bro" isn't actually proof?
This is pretty bizarre levels of faith in one YouTube video that I doubt that even Kimber himself considers anything like definitive proof of anything.
Happened for BGT 20/21 and the India tour of England, but nothing like the Ashes 10/11 level.
And I'm supposed to just agree with you because you find it dubious? He's actually made a case, most of you have nothing. Talk about faith/lack of.
_00_deathscar
International Regular
How do you explain all the top bats who were going great until 2017/2018 or so who have suddenly started struggling since then? Some of them are clearly in a decline, but in the case of others they're starting to look a lot more mortal.
I don't think T20s come into it quite as much. I think it's more a mixture of better pitches and really good, relentless bowling.
Spark
Global Moderator
Many people have brought up possible factors for contributing to the decline in averages, I've personally been pretty clear what I think it is. You on the other hand are obsessed with this one video and seem to take it as a personal insult that everyone doesn't bow at the feet of your brilliant arguments such as "what does mindset have to do with batting anyway" and "why don't we just assume that one bloke has randomly gone and done the research that it otherwise takes an entire company using 20 years of ball tracking data and multiple professional data analysts to do".
If by possible factors you mean generally imagined bullshit or unsupported theories then sure, they've brought it up. What is insulting is that you seem to think these are somehow as legitimate to discuss.
cnerd123
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I'd like to see a comprehensive list of which batsmen have had their averages drop since 2018, because I feel that would reveal a lot. Pitches, improved bowling attacks and the pandemic are all real factors that could account for this on their own, but I suspect most of these players are also multi-format batters who haven't adapted + guys late in their careers experiencing a natural decline as a result of being worked out at this level.
Virat Kohli a perfect example of both those things - I think his average would have dropped regardless of other factors because of how heavily he gets analyzed and how glaring his technical flaws are, and he has no time to adapt because he's consistently playing all 3 formats around the year.
Spark
Global Moderator
]
Do you genuinely think you're the first person you make the observation that batting is hard? This thread literally only exists because of a post I made commenting that batting is hard these days, and I've said for at least two years now that the primary reason for that is the pitches. What I also said in this thread is that the pandemic can't be discounted as a factor, which your genius has apparently interpreted as me saying it's the only reason.
I said it's not that relevant because this started before the pandemic and it is unlikely that the lack of the pandemic would've changed it.
Spark
Global Moderator
The main reason I'm sceptical that it's mostly the bowling attacks is that bowling attacks have been really strong for a while. It was already clear by 2018 that it was a strong era for fast bowling.
Spark
Global Moderator
There's no possible way to know this for sure, which wouldn't be so hard for you accept if you didn't insist on posting like you're the God's gift to cricket analysis and calling anyone who disagrees with you an idiot.
Starfighter
Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
I find it amazing that one guy is accorded so much authority as well. I mean, Kimber's a blogger and writer and to be honest has nothing in particular to give him more authority than, say, anyone here.
trundler
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He knows how to use statsguru, big deal
Spark
Global Moderator
His research is good - I believe he has an analyst working with him for his videos with his own database that includes wagon wheel data but probably not ball tracking - but this sort of incredibly broad argument takes so much data and so much analysis as to be beyond anyone but professional corporate setups. Even a narrowly defined question like "why is Steve Smith suddenly weaker to short pitched bowling" is an incredibly complex question needing tons of data and subjective interpretation to answer; now imagine doing that for literally everyone at the same time in aggregate.
These questions are only really answerable by qualitative, subjective theories based on supposition and mechanical explanations. Which is to say, guesswork.
Yeah, this. I appreciate I don't have all the answers, but I feel like I can mount a somewhat convincing case that a range of factors that include the predominance of T20, COVID, highly-skilled bowlers, video analysis etc have contributed to the drop in run making lately. Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm partly right, maybe I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.
I also enjoy other people's points of view, but not this X guy's. It's been tedious to share a thread with a person who came up with the following: Playing T20s regularly or not has no real impact that can be measured, so basically has no impact. I mean, this as Spark said is just a weird obsession with a single Youtube video and some bar graphs.
Which ones are you referring to? Smith, Kohli? And others?
Despite what this X guy thinks, the pandemic has created a significant mental load on players. And yeah, as someone asked earlier, the mental pressure is greater on batsmen than it is on bowlers. Indian fans, or a lot I've seen, seem to think Kohli's decline is down to fatigue - partly from captaincy, partly from COVID. Smith, I honestly don't know. But again, it could be a host of factors - tougher pitches, better bowlers and no, for him I don't attribute it to T20.
My point is and was that for players who came into the first class system after 2010 or so, their techniques - if they are playing domestic T20 comps - can be burdened by trying to bash it before they'd built a strong undercurrent of technique in the longer forms (in which I also include 50-over comps). I also think that your 'Test specialists' are often players of lesser ability coming into FC cricket, because if you come in now - you want to wack it and boost your bank balance. But again, that's not saying that I think T20 is the ONLY reason Test averages are down. Clearly, it isn't. But when I look at a team like England, I see my theory in practice. Their multi-format guys don't know how to leave. They have poor techniques to quality spin and pace. They don't know how to properly build and sustain an innings. And their Test specialists, your Burns/Hameeds etc, are just not that good. They battle away, but they're average.