This is a very interesting one for stats buffs. Normally one will find that the greatest of batsmen have a relatively settled (low fluctuation) average over their careers. Basically because, invariably, once they settle into their careers, they tend to have prolonged peaks and during this period they accumulate so much that the odd blip does not bring their averages down by much. But one can still see some interesting statistical differences. Here are six of the top players over time and most of them appear in most people ATG sides.
Code:
[B]Batsman Tests Highest Lowest Career Diff H/L Diff %[/B]
Bradman 52 111.9 89.6 99.9 22.3 22.3
Sobers 91 65 52.5 57.8 12.5 21.6
Hammond 85 66.6 54.9 58.5 11.7 20.0
Sutcliffe 54 70.5 60.7 60.7 9.8 16.1
Hobbs 61 61.3 56 57 5.3 9.3
Tendulkar 1 194 59.2 37.4 54.3 21.8 40.1
[B]Tendulkar 2 194 59.2 49 54.3 10.2 18.[/B]8
This needs some explaining.
1. The Diff H/L column shows the difference between the lowest and the highest averages obtained after the end of the 20th Test. This shows wide fluctuation - from Hobbs' 5.3 to Bradman's 22.3. But then Bradman's average is almost twice that of the others - hence the next column which converts this difference to a % of the career average. Now the range is between 15 to 22 which is reasonable except for two players, Hobbs(9.3) and Tendulkar (40.1)
2. Hobbs's fantastically low variation in the average is nothing but a reflection of his remarkable consistency over such a long career - that too as an opener in an era of uncovered wickets. There is absolutely no doubt as to why this man is on everyone's ATG list and why there are those who consider him, technically as well as in adverse conditions, the superior of the Don himself.
3. Tendulkar's figures show a bit of a problem with the eligibility criteria of minimum 20 Tests. For most of the others the 20 tests represent a very large chunk of their career tally. From 22 percent for Sobers to nearly 40 percent for Bradman. For Tendulkar, however, these represent just over 10 percent of the matches he has played so far.Even if this 20 Test limit was made 30 in his case, the figures become more like everyone else's (Tendulkar 2) barring Hobbs of course. Although 30 Tests still represent just 15 % of his Test tally against 22-40 that 20 represents for the others.
What we are really saying is that the young Tendulkar in his teens was not the finished product and too far from his prime for this not to affect his figures for that period vis-a-vis what he was to achieve over the next two decades.
So it is obvious that the top batsmen over time will have a low and high average differential of between 15 to 20 % of their career figure. However, there will be those who will have made much bigger strides or fallen much more sharply in their careers. I am sure they are out there but when you find them you will find that they would not be of the caliber of these giants or their career averages will be in a much lower range, or their career spans will be lower or a combination of these factors.
I would like someone to find a world class player with a long career, a world class career ending average but with a really big difference between the highest and lowest averages.
That should be fun to discuss.