• Welcome to the Cricket Web forums, one of the biggest forums in the world dedicated to cricket.

    You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join the Cricket Web community today!

    If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us.

At what age do quick bowlers tend to decline?

At what age do quicks tend to start to decline?


  • Total voters
    24

Richard

Cricket Web Staff Member
Yes, I did. But 5-10 bowlers will not significantly change the data when you have 200-250 bowlers included in the analysis, especially in the mid twenties. And their bowlers will remain crap throughout their span, thereby evening out the numbers. If they are crap before, they'll stay crap or get worse, same as any other bowler who is good but stays good or becomes worse, so since we are measuring relative declines of players, putting them in makes sense.
All the same, given that excluding Bangladesh would take, what, zero effort? Would it not be worth doing?

Zimbabwe there'd be little point as there's only a handful of games that they've played since 2003 and it'd be impossible to get rid of them while leaving the 1992-2002 stuff that deserves to be in there.
 

silentstriker

The Wheel is Forever
The 2nd graph can be easily explained without thinking players get more accurate as they get older.

Econ rate is poor early as lots of guys are learning their game and lots of guys that shouldnt be picked are selected.

It plateaus in the middle as the bad players are no longer selected at that age and it gets better at the older age as only the very best will get picked at that age.

As age progresses the fat (poor bowlers) is increasingly trimmed

Apart from the very young, it mirrors the number of bowlers by age which makes sense as the unproven are young and can easily fail and they are jettisoned by the mid-late 20s.
Makes sense.
 

Jigga988

State 12th Man
The 2nd graph can be easily explained without thinking players get more accurate as they get older.

Econ rate is poor early as lots of guys are learning their game and lots of guys that shouldnt be picked are selected.

It plateaus in the middle as the bad players are no longer selected at that age and it gets better at the older age as only the very best will get picked at that age.

As age progresses the fat (poor bowlers) is increasingly trimmed

Apart from the very young, it mirrors the number of bowlers by age which makes sense as the unproven are young and can easily fail and they are jettisoned by the mid-late 20s.
exactly, you'd have to be really good or accurate to be playing when you are in your mid thirties, but because there is so much rubbish bowlers in their twenties the good bowlers economy rates are brought down by those who are especially bad. However, when in the thirties it is proboble that the bowler would have to be extremely accurate or get decent swing to get in the side as he is hardly going to get picked on pace.
 

silentstriker

The Wheel is Forever
Why not? Test cricket would be most accurately reflected in no Bangladesh game had Test status, so therefore I think any data will be better without their inclusion.
Bangladeshi bowlers are not immune from relative decline as they age. This deals with relative decline in performance. If I were measuring absolute averages to judge something, I'd keep them out. As it is, the higher the sample size, the better.
 
Last edited:

Richard

Cricket Web Staff Member
Hmm, well in that case, you should do it for all bowlers at all levels.

(Yeah, I know - there's no tool that lets you do that at levels other than I$C$C-recognised Tests :dry:)
 

silentstriker

The Wheel is Forever
Hmm, well in that case, you should do it for all bowlers at all levels.

(Yeah, I know - there's no tool that lets you do that at levels other than I$C$C-recognised Tests :dry:)
Yea, ideally, I'd like to include FC cricket too (all professional FC leagues at least, so lack of money is not a major factor in retirement).
 

Richard

Cricket Web Staff Member
Haha, sadly lack of money is a factor in retirement for just about all pro leagues outside certainly England and Australia and I wonder about India? Don't know anything much for certain there though.

But pay in West Indies, New Zealand, Pakistan and South Africa is pitiful by the standards of other professions (WI and SA of course are simply financially weak countries), and Sri Lanka's international players haven't been paid for God-knows-how-long, so I dread to think what the situation at domestic level is.
 

silentstriker

The Wheel is Forever
Haha, sadly lack of money is a factor in retirement for just about all pro leagues outside certainly England and Australia and I wonder about India? Don't know anything much for certain there though.
Indian FC players are now paid very well, and can lead comfortable lives while playing cricket. It was not the case until recently though.

But pay in West Indies, New Zealand, Pakistan and South Africa is pitiful by the standards of other professions (WI and SA of course are simply financially weak countries), and Sri Lanka's international players haven't been paid for God-knows-how-long, so I dread to think what the situation at domestic level is.
Yea, while I'd love to get data for those countries too, I'm would wary of trusting it to provide accurate information about this topic, as the prospect of enduring pain for more years when you have no chance of making it to the national level and not making enough to live comfortably is not a great one. Most people's career begins at 30, when they start making very good money, and that's when cricketers are tapering off, so it's very hard to keep going as much as you normally would. And completely understandably too.
 

BoyBrumby

Englishman
Brett Lee's an interesting case study for a bowler's peak/decline. In the 18 months until the India tour he'd been in (by general consensus) the form of his career, but since then has fallen away from his peak of excellence (NZ wickets notwithstanding). At 32 (IIRC) are we inclined to see it as a blip in form or is it the beginning of the end?
A blip in form, IMO.

Lee's always been rubbish in subcontinental conditions.
Especially since he bowled beautifully against NZ. The oppo was weak, sure, but I'm pretty confident he would have taken wickets against anyone the way he was bowling in Adelaide.

We'll see in a week or so, I guess.
Just thought I'd dig this up now we're a test and two-fifths into the South African tour. Brett doesn't seem to have backed up his encouraging New Zealand form, so are we now seeing a player whose career is starting to circle the drain? As Dizzy showed in 2005 when the end does come it can be swift and brutal.
 

dontcloseyoureyes

BARNES OUT
Just thought I'd dig this up now we're a test and two-fifths into the South African tour. Brett doesn't seem to have backed up his encouraging New Zealand form, so are we now seeing a player whose career is starting to circle the drain? As Dizzy showed in 2005 when the end does come it can be swift and brutal.
I'm sure Lee would take the way Dizzy went out, regardless.
 

pup11

International Coach
It would be shockingly ironical if the upcoming Ashes series proves to the final nail in coffin for Lee' international career ala Gillespie, but i still think its too early to write him off, i don't think he is too far from being back to his best, just needs some luck going his way, always have considered him as a top bloke, and it would be really sad to see him wane so dramatically.
 

iamdavid

International Debutant
It would be shockingly ironical if the upcoming Ashes series proves to the final nail in coffin for Lee' international career ala Gillespie, but i still think its too early to write him off, i don't think he is too far from being back to his best, just needs some luck going his way, always have considered him as a top bloke, and it would be really sad to see him wane so dramatically.
Would not suprise me tbh, Lee is already two years older than Gillespie was when his sudden decline kicked in during 2005. And Lee is and always has been far more reliant on pace than most, I know he has an excellent wrist position and is well capable of swinging the ball, however he has never done it that consistently and with conditions as they are in most countries around the world nowdays you arent always going to be swinging the ball. If he looses just a little bit more zip and we see him averaging in the 135-142kph bracket, then I fear it may be curtains, because he has never had outstanding control, nor does he have the trajectory to be a threat on flat wickets at that pace, he's just too skiddy and flat and he'll be cannon-fodder.
 

susudear

Banned
I thought McGrath and Lee were exceptions to the rule

However guess I am wrong. Only McGrath remains exception to the rule that pace bowlers start the downward trundle post 32.(Talking of modern cricket)
 

iamdavid

International Debutant
Yeah McGrath was very different to Lee, pace really was not that big a deal with him, his main weapons were his control, trajectory and the little bit of seam movement. All of which were undiminished with age. And as has been said plenty his action placed relatively low-stress on the body.
 

Richard

Cricket Web Staff Member
Would not suprise me tbh, Lee is already two years older than Gillespie was when his sudden decline kicked in during 2005. And Lee is and always has been far more reliant on pace than most, I know he has an excellent wrist position and is well capable of swinging the ball, however he has never done it that consistently and with conditions as they are in most countries around the world nowdays you arent always going to be swinging the ball. If he looses just a little bit more zip and we see him averaging in the 135-142kph bracket, then I fear it may be curtains, because he has never had outstanding control, nor does he have the trajectory to be a threat on flat wickets at that pace, he's just too skiddy and flat and he'll be cannon-fodder.
Yeah, it's certainly now possible to contemplate the possibility that the last of Lee of any note or use (as well as the first...) was seen in 2007/08. So far in 2008/09 he's averaged just under 50, almost all of which owes to that one game at Adelaide Oval. In the other 7 he's averaged just under 70.

The metatarsal, unfortunately, means finding-out more will be put on hold for a while. Imagine he'll walk straight back into the team in England though. Up to Bollinger et al to try to stop him.
 

Savvy Saffer

Cricket Spectator
Wear & tear is a bigger factor in the decline of fast bowlers than chronological age.
Curtly Ambrose and Allan Donald's Test careers started late and they where in their prime at age 30-32.
 

Richard

Cricket Web Staff Member
Ambrose made his Test debut at the age of 24. Perfect seam-bowler-debut age.

Donald was relatively advanced at 26 but still, not exactly ancient.
 

GIMH

Norwood's on Fire
Flintoff has *looked* as good as ever since returning from injury, the question with our Freddie, of course, is how long can he stay fit? He's 31 now, apparently (:(), given his injury history, he can't have that much left. Hard to imagine him declining as a bowler, never ever want to see that happen.
 

Top