Adjusting the batting average based on actual quality

[The Sean]

How does MoYo look on this? Test average over 52 and achieved an exceptionally high peak ICC rating, though I'm not sure what his average raring was.

 

[The Sean]

Also, how about Steve Waugh?

 

[honestbharani]

AWS? Is that like a competing clan of yours?

He is creating a voodoo for you on the amazon cloud.


Get it? coz he is a bot, lololol.

 

[shortpitched713]

Also, how about Steve Waugh?

He's a notable victim of ICC rating average as a methodology, and rather underrated by it. Not good, will be the answer.

 

[shortpitched713]

Comparing both to the second table values, which have averages compared to 1970-2018, instead of whole Test history:

How does MoYo look on this? Test avwrage over 52 and achieved an exceptionally high peak ICC rating, though I'm not sure what his average raring was.

Regression Adjusted Average = 47.02 Delta = -5.724

Also, how about Steve Waugh?

Regression Adjusted Average = 46.79 Delta = -4.274


MoYo being rightly marked down as a noted FTB, in easier Pakistan batting conditions of the time. Waugh on the other hand struggling due to his early career slow start (which can be overcome, i.e Sanga has a great ICC Rating average), but is definitely not as merited. Both end up on either side of AB deVilliers.

 

[shortpitched713]

Have gone ahead and done this for the bowlers too. The methodology here was to set ICC Ranking average as numerator, and multiply by MVP model score (which usefully adds in a nice away record consideration as well) and place the era adjusted bowling average as the denominator. The correlation is not as strong as for the batsmen ( just shy of .7 ), but it's still not bad. Inclusion of spinners only reduced that correlation by a negligible .01, so I feel comfortable including them, although they end up with very different residuals. I have to also account for the fact that all things are not equal ( i.e. spinners are used more in stock roles regardless of quality). So while these bowlers are sorted in the order of the original regression value, I made an adjustment based on the original residuals to slightly increase spinner averages (and very, very slightly decrease seamer ones). The final results look a bit more "realistic" for both bowler categories.

Bowler	Regression Adjusted Average	Actual Average	Delta
Glenn Mcgrath	21.42793​	21.64​	-0.21207​
Muttiah Muralitharan	23.27961​	22.72​	0.559614​
Dale Steyn	21.77292​	22.95​	-1.17708​
Curtly Ambrose	21.83116​	20.99​	0.841163​
Richard Hadlee	22.14589​	22.29​	-0.14411​
Malcolm Marshall	22.36784​	20.94​	1.427839​
Allan Donald	22.42278​	22.25​	0.172784​
Joel Garner	22.79065​	20.97​	1.820645​
Shaun Pollock	22.99114​	23.11​	-0.11886​
Imran Khan	23.56562​	22.81​	0.755615​
Wasim Akram	23.566​	23.62​	-0.054​
Shane Warne	25.25136​	25.41​	-0.15864​
Vernon Philander	23.60542​	22.32​	1.285421​
Dennis Lillee	23.74988​	23.92​	-0.17012​
Waqar Younis	23.8438​	23.56​	0.283803​
			0.3408​

The average delta ended up being slightly positive ( meaning more of these players came from the somewhat more bowling friendly eras of the overall modern era).

Also, it turns out you can't square the circle of batting friendly conditions for SA bats, and bowling friendly ones for SA bowlers, unless you're a bowler like Philander who has a significantly worse record away (therein being hurt by the MVP model consideration). So Steyn ends up coming out as the only bowler with a negative delta magnitude over 1 .

 

[The Sean]

What happened to the Windies quicks?

 

[shortpitched713]

Here's a few more retired bowlers of the modern era with careers of importance, outside the very top bowlers list. The regression model extrapolation holds up better than I expected:

Ian Botham:
Regression Adjusted Average = 27.03 Delta = -1.374

Anil Kumble:
Regression Adjusted Average = 27.86 Delta = -1.789

Jacques Kallis:
Regression Adjusted Average = 33.91 Delta = 1.260

 

[shortpitched713]

What happened to the Windies quicks?

My guess is the MVP model doesn't like them, as their 5fors are less than expected due to quality of supporting bowlers on their team. You'll notice Garner and Marshall suffer more than Ambrose, which seems about right for such an explanation.

 

[ankitj]

I've cracked the code actually. Here's all you have to do, to adjust your opinions for players to be higher or lower than what their average indicates, if you want to conform to CW Cricket Chat concensus.

Tier 1
Australia
India
England

Tier 2
West Indies
New Zealand
Pakistan

Tier 3
South Africa
Sri Lanka

If you know which of these major cricketing countries the player is from, you can adjust them by tier value. Always adjust tier 1 averages favorably, and tier 3 averages unfavorably. This is because Tier 1 countries have the most deluded fan support on this site, who insist their countries players experienced some special circumstance or other to elevate the significance of their positive performance and mitigate the negative performance, and will argue you to the tooth to. It is useless to argue against such a deluge, regardless of the existence of facts or evidence supporting your negative argument against any such player.

Tier 2 countries have just about enough support on the forum, or value attributed to undeniable historical achievement, that you can't get away with lowering their averages, but at the same time were rivals to Tier 1 countries so you can't increase their averages either, so don't do either.

Tier 3 countries are from countries who were both in recent history very tough opponents and rivals of tier 1 countries, and also have the least amount of support on this forum. For this reason just make up whatever spurious arguments you can to bash their players and lower/increase their averages unfavorably. No one's going to challenge you on those arguments anyway, so eventually your takes will become part of the consensus.

With this simple guide, you too can help build "historical consensus" on the Cricket Web Cricket Chat forum. Have fun! And excuse me while I vomit somewhere...

This is the thread where this post was made!

 

[shortpitched713]

This is the thread where this post was made!

The back end of rankings for Greatest bowlers poll is a perfect example of this.

19 out of the last 28 bowlers selected, were from these top 3, tier 1 nations only.

Normally, I wouldn't care, but voting round after voting round keeping my dude Philander out of top 25, then, 30, 35, and even top 40, was kind of laughable.

The final straw was Nathan Lyon, an over 30 averaging bowler somehow making it in. I can make a case that Danish Kaneria is a better bowler than him. So yeah, just a joke by the end of the process, when the obvious choices were done, and only those that could garner a dedicated support campaign ( i.e. nationalism ), could have a fair shot based on their merits.

 

[Migara]

Amarnath is a good shout. He deserves a late 40s average at least.

Could say same about Aravinda too. Excelled on faster pitches in early career and had to change his technique to play on slower pitches later.

 

[Migara]

Haha yeah, that never bothers me much but you wonder if batting in FC was tougher than some of the conditions he got in Tests.

Interestingly Ted Dexter also has a really disappointing FC record. Could see him having a similar issue to Gower, lacking motivation for CC once his England place was secure but could be incorrectly disrespecting the great man there.

Ditto Kumar Sangakkara before he that insane spree in county cricket following his retirement..

 

[Migara]

I don't obviously. In certain cases like Yousuf, his numbers flatter him.

I am not sure what you are complaining about. Yousuf Averages 42 in SAF, Eng, Aus and NZ combined. That is hardly Featherbed stuff. His problems were more against Quality spin and fast medium extremely accurate bowlers like McGrath or Pollock, rather than short fast frenzy stuff,

 

[ma1978]

“Let’s just take a random guess and adjust someone’s averages to what I think they should be” - topic of this thread

 

[TheJediBrah]

“Let’s just take a random guess and adjust someone’s averages to what I think they should be” - topic of this thread

If that's the case it's an improvement on what these threads usually are. Which is "there's a certain player I want rated higher/lower so let's make up some criteria to bring that about and apply it to everyone while pretending it's about finding more accurate averages overall"

 

[ankitj]

The back end of rankings for Greatest bowlers poll is a perfect example of this.

19 out of the last 28 bowlers selected, were from these top 3, tier 1 nations only.

Normally, I wouldn't care, but voting round after voting round keeping my dude Philander out of top 25, then, 30, 35, and even top 40, was kind of laughable.

The final straw was Nathan Lyon, an over 30 averaging bowler somehow making it in. I can make a case that Danish Kaneria is a better bowler than him. So yeah, just a joke by the end of the process, when the obvious choices were done, and only those that could garner a dedicated support campaign ( i.e. nationalism ), could have a fair shot based on their merits.

@OverratedSanity is a Lyon fan.

 

[ataraxia]

Lyon got in disgracefully late. Very near Ashwin, if not better than him.

 

[TheJediBrah]

The back end of rankings for Greatest bowlers poll is a perfect example of this.

19 out of the last 28 bowlers selected, were from these top 3, tier 1 nations only.

Normally, I wouldn't care, but voting round after voting round keeping my dude Philander out of top 25, then, 30, 35, and even top 40, was kind of laughable.

The final straw was Nathan Lyon, an over 30 averaging bowler somehow making it in. I can make a case that Danish Kaneria is a better bowler than him. So yeah, just a joke by the end of the process, when the obvious choices were done, and only those that could garner a dedicated support campaign ( i.e. nationalism ), could have a fair shot based on their merits.

I put no stock in these kind of ratings exercises at all, but your issues here look like "shortpitched713 problems" rather than actual problems with the system. You think Philander and Kaneria are better than they are so when they don't end up as high as you want it's because of "nationalism"

 

[OverratedSanity]

@OverratedSanity is a Lyon fan.

Yes because he's a very good bowler. And he has a funny shaped head.