Kane Williamson not in league of other elite test batters

[Johan]

That he did well in the recent past is still no guarantee of future success. I mean we've seen in series vs India in India or Australia in Australia that he's had the occasional big score before 'disappearing' and this isn't exactly the era where every pitch in the world is a highway, making batting easier. I understand being hopeful and wanting well, but it's silly to pretend people are wasting time by assuming a downturn in form towards the end of Root's career, when we've literally seen that with his contemporaries at points.

His contemporaries were already in decline at his age, and his contemporaries have a different playstyle than him, Root has done well in India and well his record isn't great in Aus but you can't win them all, on the contrary the next series is a pakistan series, then a newzealand series where Root does very well, a one off with Zimbabwe followed by a 5 match series against India at home, if anything his next 15 or so test there are much higher chances of him boosting his average a couple points than it falling for example.

and Yes, Assuming there would be a downturn is indeed a waste of time, because until you're Yhwach from Bleach you can't see the future, he might miserably fail in pakistan or he might average 100, the fact he has shown no signs of decline at 33 should just tell you that "decline based on age" isn't a guaranteed and everything from here is speculative.

 

[Xix2565]

His contemporaries were already in decline at his age, and his contemporaries have a different playstyle than him, Root has done well in India and well his record isn't great in Aus but you can't win them all, on the contrary the next series is a pakistan series, then a newzealand series where Root does very well, a one off with Zimbabwe followed by a 5 match series against India at home, if anything his next 15 or so test there are much higher chances of him boosting his average a couple points than it falling for example.

and Yes, Assuming there would be a downturn is indeed a waste of time, because until you're Yhwach from Bleach you can't see the future, he might miserably fail in pakistan or he might average 100, the fact he has shown no signs of decline at 33 should just tell you that "decline based on age" isn't a guaranteed and everything from here is speculative.

Of course it's speculative, but erring on the side of caution is not a bad thing to do here. I don't see why it's provoking this sort of response from people.

 

[centurymaker]

His contemporaries were already in decline at his age, and his contemporaries have a different playstyle than him, Root has done well in India and well his record isn't great in Aus but you can't win them all, on the contrary the next series is a pakistan series, then a newzealand series where Root does very well, a one off with Zimbabwe followed by a 5 match series against India at home, if anything his next 15 or so test there are much higher chances of him boosting his average a couple points than it falling for example.

and Yes, Assuming there would be a downturn is indeed a waste of time, because until you're Yhwach from Bleach you can't see the future, he might miserably fail in pakistan or he might average 100, the fact he has shown no signs of decline at 33 should just tell you that "decline based on age" isn't a guaranteed and everything from here is speculative.

Maintaining a high average is hard.

Contrary to your opinion, Root didn't have a good series in India. It was below par. Bumrah had him on knots. You know he may score a hundred every series and still his average may fall... because maintaining a high average is hard, while increasing it is significantly harder. It coming down is naturally the most likely scenario. I can tell from your posts that you are somewhat inexperienced, so you may find out in due time.

 

[Johan]

Of course it's speculative, but erring on the side of caution is not a bad thing to do here. I don't see why it's provoking this sort of response from people.

Saying his average may be or may not be beneath 50 or above 50 is whatever, but the initial response sparked from the pretensions that Root's average dropping below 50 is some form of conventional wisdom that certain users repeat in every thread, when it's just speculation.

 

[Xix2565]

Saying his average may be or may not be beneath 50 or above 50 is whatever, but the initial response sparked from the pretensions that Root's average dropping below 50 is some form of conventional wisdom that certain users repeat in every thread, when it's just speculation.

Is it not conventional wisdom to suggest that Root might decline?

 

[Al Salvador]

Smith is in a different league.

Root is comfortably two level below. Kohli is also behind Root.

Williamson is not in league of any of three. One of the biggest minnow basher ever. He is Kiwi Mahela Jayawardene.

You're something else mate.. Continuous edgy takes. Mahela minnow basher seriously?? He averages 70 against sena+india at home ffs. Stop it.

 

[Johan]

Maintaining a high average is hard.

Contrary to your opinion, Root didn't have a good series in India. It was below par. Bumrah had him on knots. You know he may score a hundred every series and still his average may fall... because maintaining a high average is hard, while increasing it is significantly harder. It coming down is naturally the most likely scenario. I can tell from your posts that you are somewhat inexperienced, so you may find out in due time.

Root is a great Batsmen who made a career of doing things the hard way, his current schedule is lighter than it has been in a while.

First three tests he was indeed poor but he was playing as an all rounder and bowling proper bowler spells, when he was relieved of those duties he made one of his best tons and did well in the next game too, the series wasn't amazing for him but it was fine enough, he more than made up for it with the next two serieses, and that's my point, after the third test in India nobody assumed Root would get to 50+ again in the year...and two serieses later he is there, it's very easy for stats to drop or go up in singular serieses, thus trying to predict how it will go is entirely useless.

which is again, my whole point.

 

[Johan]

Is it not conventional wisdom to suggest that Root might decline?

A possibility that's equally as likely as the other is never conventional wisdom in my eyes, tho, ofcourse He can decline, or he can have a couple more years of greatness, both possible.

 

[Xix2565]

A possibility that's equally as likely as the other is never conventional wisdom in my eyes, tho, ofcourse He can decline, or he can have a couple more years of greatness, both possible.

It isn't equally likely is the entire point. It's far more likely batters at the end of their careers do tail off then keep up good form.

 

[Johan]

It isn't equally likely is the entire point. It's far more likely batters at the end of their careers do tail off then keep up good form.

I disagree, There are batters (a bunch actually) who have had kept the same average till their second last year and retired on their first failed tour/year, that's way more likely with someone like Root than an extended decline period that would actually affect his stats..

on top, if he was to have an extended decline, he would've it already.

 

[PlayerComparisons]

Let’s wait and see if he’s still averaging 50+ in 3-4 years I guess

 

[Johan]

Also, Mahela Jayawerdene is NOT a better batsmen than Kane Williamson.

 

[Xix2565]

I disagree, There are batters (a bunch actually) who have had kept the same average till their second last year and retired on their first failed tour/year, that's way more likely with someone like Root than an extended decline period that would actually affect his stats..

on top, if he was to have an extended decline, he would've it already.

Is it more likely because you said so or...?

That doesn't follow, because like centurymaker said, it wouldn't take much for him to dip in form.

 

[Johan]

Is it more likely because you said so or...?

That doesn't follow, because like centurymaker said, it wouldn't take much for him to dip in form.

It's more likely because as I explained, if he was to have an extended decline period he'd have it at 33, he won't have to wait for 37 for it, and he isn't overplaying

it won't take him much to average 60 the next couple years too, both ideas equally valid until you can actually prove one more valid, give up on the speculative bullshit

 

[Xix2565]

It's more likely because as I explained, if he was to have an extended decline period he'd have it at 33, he won't have to wait for 37 for it, and he isn't overplaying

it won't take him much to average 60 the next couple years too, both ideas equally valid until you can actually prove one more valid.

This does not read like a plausible future tbf. And no, both ideas are not equally valid just because you said so.

 

[Johan]

This does not read like a plausible future tbf. And no, both ideas are not equally valid just because you said so.

Plausibility is a measure deduced from perspective, what may seem probable from your perspective may be improbable from another. And No, one isn't more likely than other until you can prove why.

 

[Xix2565]

Plausibility is a measure deduced from perspective, what may seem probable from your perspective may be improbable from another. And No, one isn't more likely than other until you can prove why.

My proof is the general trend of most batters, good or bad. You have a handful of outliers with similarities to Root. I would think it's likelier than not that Root does decline.

 

[Johan]

My proof is the general trend of most batters, good or bad. You have a handful of outliers with similarities to Root. I would think it's likelier than not that Root does decline.

the general trend of great Batsmen is one bad year at the end of the career and retire, which is exactly what I proposed as the most likely outcome, not everyone is a Tendulkar or a Viv.

 

[centurymaker]

First three tests he was indeed poor but he was playing as an all rounder and bowling proper bowler spells, when he was relieved of those duties he made one of his best tons and did well in the next game too, the series wasn't amazing for him but it was fine enough,

lol Bumrah was rested for that Test.

He doesn't have a light schedule ahead. He has 10 tests vs India and Australia next year. In fact he already had the easiest possible schedule with home tests vs WI & SL. And England don't play WI or SL again, neither home or away, until 2028. So there will be fewer opportunities to stat pad in the coming years.

 

[Johan]

lol Bumrah was rested for that Test.

He doesn't have a light schedule ahead. He has 10 tests vs India and Australia next year. In fact he already had the easiest possible schedule with home tests vs WI & SL. And England don't play WI or SL again, neither home or away, until 2028. So there will be fewer opportunities to stat pad in the coming years.

The Indian Spinnes were on fire in that match, which made it one of his best tests. The final tests where Bumrah was around, he played good as well.

Great Job ignoring the point about him playing as a all rounder for the first two tests btw but eh, I don't really care enough to persue you furthur on that point.

Sorry, I meant what's considered lightwork for him, which is just about everything outside of Australia in Australia and India in India, he is clear until the Next Ashes.

but at the end, none of this matters, because he can average 0 in the india series or average 150, We don't know how it goes, there is no point speculating when his career hasn't followed a trajectory for us to make assumptions from, as I said a 50> average or a <50 average are both possibilities, we don't even know how many years are left, the discussion is pointless.