*Official* Australia tour of New Zealand Feb-Mar 2024

[anonymouskefe]

Yeah might not have been quite high 30’s but it certainly wasnt near the 60 he was averaging

edit according to fox it would have been 44

 

[Chubb]

I think low to mid 40s is a fair reflection of Marnus’ ability. A good player but not ATG level.

 

[Line and Length]

Since the series against the W.I. a little over a year ago, Labuschagne has had 36 Test innings and averaged a modest 31.56 with just one century.

 

[Flem274*]

Yeah Labu isn't crap, he's a good player and not the first to take a few seasons to warm into fc level.

 

[Nintendo]

edit according to fox it would have been 44

So, at his peak, if he wasn't dropped at all, he would have averaged 44? It's definitely interesting, but I don't know if that's really a great metric. You expect the average player to get dropped to some extent. Maybe a 5 year rolling mean/median would provide a more realistic measure of how the extra luck aided marnus's pick. Like I was saying above, even when marnus was lucky, he had a habit of going on after being given a chance and getting a massive score.



Like I said before, rahane was given nearly as many reprieves as marnus in the period used in this image (07-oct-2018 to 16-jan-2022), but in that period rahane averaged 35 while marnus averaged 57. Stokes, who had the 3rd most reprieves on that list in the period, averaged 40, 17 less than marnus. Going off the first chance or true average you gave above, marnus with no luck would still be outperforming rahane and stokes with all the luck they got.

TLDR: "Luck" doesn't account for all of marnus's success, and if your going to make a point like this alot more needs to be included. Just a quick example, for most of the period where rahane was getting dropped, away batting averages globally dropped everywhere bar NZ and SL, and india started juicing up their home decks, so rahane was probably playing in much tougher conditions than marnus (don't have adjusted averages to prove this). So maybe zero luck, peak marnus outperforming rahane will all his "luck" is just a factor of better batting conditions?

 

[anonymouskefe]

So, at his peak, if he wasn't dropped at all, he would have averaged 44? It's definitely interesting, but I don't know if that's really a great metric. You expect the average player to get dropped to some extent. Maybe a 5 year rolling mean/median would provide a more realistic measure of how the extra luck aided marnus's pick. Like I was saying above, even when marnus was lucky, he had a habit of going on after being given a chance and getting a massive score.

View attachment 39445

Like I said before, rahane was given nearly as many reprieves as marnus in the period used in this image (07-oct-2018 to 16-jan-2022), but in that period rahane averaged 35 while marnus averaged 57. Stokes, who had the 3rd most reprieves on that list in the period, averaged 40, 17 less than marnus. Going off the first chance or true average you gave above, marnus with no luck would still be outperforming rahane and stokes with all the luck they got.

TLDR: "Luck" doesn't account for all of marnus's success, and if your going to make a point like this alot more needs to be included. Just a quick example, for most of the period where rahane was getting dropped, away batting averages globally dropped everywhere bar NZ and SL, and india started juicing up their home decks, so rahane was probably playing in much tougher conditions than marnus (don't have adjusted averages to prove this). So maybe zero luck, peak marnus outperforming rahane will all his "luck" is just a factor of better batting conditions?

Yeah I agree still had to score the runs and you can’t expect every catch to be taken but it probably inflated beliefs of the player he is

 

[Aidan11]

Saw the first session and went to bed. That last Aussie partnership only scored 66 less than NZ entire innings.

 

[TheJediBrah]

The second part of that is bs. During that lucky period rahane was being dropped as much as marnus and averaging half of what he does. Marnus was lucky, but it wasn't Henry nicholls (ohh, I'm not making runs for ages then getting dropped twice/three times to make a hundred) areas either.

It's not exactly bs, it's probably accurate. But the part that goes unsaid there is that EVERY batsman's average goes down if you do that to them, not just Marnus'. But I'm pretty sure his went down more than most

 

[Aidan11]

Just seen the KW run out.

Oh dear...

 

[Molehill]

Just seen the KW run out.

Oh dear...

Me too. Am I right in thinking he shouts "Wait on" but then starts running anyway?

Saw the first session and went to bed. That last Aussie partnership only scored 66 less than NZ entire innings.

Did similar. I assumed the pitch had flattened out given that Hazlewood for the first time in his life was looking like a half decent bat.

Why didn't Aus enforce the follow on? Did they not realise there was the opportunity for not one but potentially two days of extra golf? Crazy guys, got their priorities all wrong.

 

[Molehill]

But he hasn't dropped off at fc level AFAIK? Between our last India tour and the Ashes in England (Middle of his current form slump) he went over to Glamorgan and made runs for fun. Even when he went back to shield cricket for a round before this series he was able to grind out some runs despite looking nowhere near his best.

Thought I'd check some numbers.

His average in Tests in the last 12 months is 31, helped by that ton at Old Trafford (which was important at the time). Since then he averages 21.

He averaged 71 at Glamorgan in 5 FC games last season, but that was helped by a 170 not out which he scored in the 2nd innings when his team were already 130 ahead.

He's played 2 FC Matches for Queensland in this Sheffield Shield and averages 26.

The ton he got at Old Trafford was noteworthy as Aus were struggling and without it, might have got beaten despite the weather. But since then he's clearly in a hole.

 

[Flem274*]

Who would even replace Marnus? Renshaw was being ripped on a couple of months ago. Is he looking better through absence?

 

[Chin Music]

Thought I'd check some numbers.

His average in Tests in the last 12 months is 31, helped by that ton at Old Trafford (which was important at the time). Since then he averages 21.

He averaged 71 at Glamorgan in 5 FC games last season, but that was helped by a 170 not out which he scored in the 2nd innings when his team were already 130 ahead.

He's played 2 FC Matches for Queensland in this Sheffield Shield and averages 26.

The ton he got at Old Trafford was noteworthy as Aus were struggling and without it, might have got beaten despite the weather. But since then he's clearly in a hole.

He was helped in that game you mention when England had to bowl Moeen and Root for a while when it was otherwise dark. To be honest, what is happening now for him is a correcting. If he ended up with a test average of around 45, that's where he's at for me. Indeed his FC average is around that, including his test numbers.

 

[Ali TT]

Saw the first session and went to bed. That last Aussie partnership only scored 66 less than NZ entire innings.

Me too. Am I right in thinking he shouts "Wait on" but then starts running anyway?



Did similar. I assumed the pitch had flattened out given that Hazlewood for the first time in his life was looking like a half decent bat.

Why didn't Aus enforce the follow on? Did they not realise there was the opportunity for not one but potentially two days of extra golf? Crazy guys, got their priorities all wrong.

I saw about 30 minutes the night before, including an over from Henry to Green (when on less than ten) in which Green looked absolutely village. Switched off then, obviously NZ not able to take advantage and the usual collapse to Australia has followed.

 

[Starfighter]

Who would even replace Marnus? Renshaw was being ripped on a couple of months ago. Is he looking better through absence?

No-one, unless they wanted throw McSweeney in, though he's not ready and might never be.

Renshaw's just gotten worse and worse throughout the season.

 

[ataraxia]

Predictions

We take early wickets with Henry and O'Rourke outstanding to leave Aus 60/4. Both go down injured as Cam Green fulfils his talent with 220*. Australia finish on 485. With these bowling injuries the 2 remaining seamers then play all of our tests for next 12 months.

When batting Young has double failures as we lose by 225 runs. He is replaced by Rachin for the 2nd test with Nicholls back in the middle order. Nicholls scores a gutsy 50 in our innings' defeat thus staying in the test team for the next 3 years. When Conway returns from injury Ravindra is left out of the test side for 2-3 years to develop his game

Looking pretty good so far ngl

 

[social]

Marnus has played some good innings in recent series but has failed to convert

That’s his biggest problem atm

Smith is the same but to a lesser degree

Kohli and Tendulkar did it for a few years and that’s why their averages plummeted from their peak

I am not Marnus’ biggest fan but he’s infinitely better than the potential replacements

 

[Gob]

lol at the idea of dropping marnus. He was decent until the wi series

in the past 2 years, he had a decent tour to pakistan considering he was runout once and twice slogging for declarations, very good in sri lanka, averaged over 40 in India and played okay in england. He wasn't setting the world on fire but he was alright and so much better than any replacement cos replacements are crap

 

[Spark]

It's the manner of dismissals that concerns me more than anything else really. His entire game was built around impeccable judgement of off stump but these last few games he's nicked off to balls he wouldn't dream of playing at his best

 

[Spark]

I'm still annoyed by that Smith dismissal tonight. Seriously, what did he think he was trying to achieve playing that kind of shot to that line in the first over of the innings with half an hour to go?