Ajaz and Sodhi will be in the most danger, with Santner and Wagner probably favourites to enter.
There is no way Latham is being dropped before 2027. The guy has a career average of 41, has a strong record of piling on the pain against subcontinent sides in Asia and anyone weak touring NZ, and is the vice skipper to a 34 year old (35 in 11 days) bowler.
Nicholls? Maybe, but he has been given an exceptionally long rope, has the same number of tons as Stephen Fleming and has scored quality runs against world class attacks at home.
I expect both players to fill their boots against South Africa J and based on home performance Nicholls is capable of scoring a ton against Australia in New Zealand, in which case he would have plenty of runs in his previous 10 tests and he's in.
Ajaz and Sodhi have been dropped after one bad performance before, and even after a good one. If they can't get it together next game (if they even play) then they're toast and we'll see Santner or some meme bull**** like Ravindra #8 for the home summer.
Edit - when is Macewell expected to return? He would be Stead's ideal at home. #7 is a bit high for Santner and Phillips is a bit of a pretend bowler, though that doesn't stop them with Macewell in tests.
Wagner would be an ATG stupid selection decision if he was picked. Not saying it wouldn't happen...but bringing in the guy who's on his last legs to replace spinners who didn't have enough control, would be almost hilarious in its absurdity. As for picking Santner, that would be about as mud as it gets.
You're right on Latham. He is the prototype Stead cricketer and he always gives Stead just enough to justify picking him.
It should be Nicholls. Around the 200, he has scores of 2, 19, 20, 2, 29, 30, 7, 5, 4, 26, 22, 19, 3, 30, 7, 39 going back to the SA series hundred in early 2022.
Neither Latham or Nicholls is flat out droppable in the sense of 'get them out right now, and play anyone'. But I agree with what Dylan Cleaver said on the ACC...they're showing a lack of cricketing EQ by not picking Rachin now. They picked him early in all formats as predominantly a spinning all-rounder and ****ed that up, but now they have the chance to pick the guy who will be playing for this side for 10 years +, he's in good batting form and feels like he belongs.
But they'll either drop Sodhi/Patel and bat him at 6, or not pick him at all. I suspect it'll be the latter.