Semi-Final qualification possibility with 6 wins

[Sunil1z]

So , I just did a rough analysis and found out that 6 teams may end with 6 wins each


IND : 4+NED+ SL
NZ :4+ IND + SL
AUS:2+ NZ+ AFG+ BAN + NED
SA: 2+ AFG+ IND+ NZ+ BAN
PAK : 2+ AFG+ NZ+ SA + BAN
ENG: 1+ SA+ NED+IND+AUS+ PAK+ SL

So , I feel you need minimum 7 wins to feel confident of Semi-Final qualification

 

[Athlai]

These are the ramblings of a mad man

 

[Sunil1z]

These are the ramblings of a mad man

Are you talking about your every post ?

 

[Qlder]

So , I just did a rough analysis and found out that 6 teams may end with 6 wins

And one team may have 9 wins and one team 8 wins which throws your theory out the window lol

 

[Sunil1z]

And one team may have 9 wins, one team 8 wins and another team 7 wins which throws your theory out the window lol

I am talking about theoretical possibilities. Some posters have written earlier that you can qualify for SF with 5 wins and good NRR . However I believe 5 wins will only be sufficient if there is a washout or as you pointed out some team wins 8 or 9 match . So , 6 wins is not guarantee for SF slot

 

[Qlder]

So , I just did a rough analysis and found out that 6 teams may end with 6 wins each


IND : 4+NED+ SL
NZ :4+ IND + SL
AUS:2+ NZ+ AFG+ BAN + NED
SA: 2+ AFG+ IND+ NZ+ BAN
PAK : 2+ AFG+ NZ+ SA + BAN
ENG: 1+ SA+ NED+IND+AUS+ PAK+ SL

So , I feel you need minimum 7 wins to feel confident of Semi-Final qualification

So you have:
- India losing to NZ, SA and Eng
- NZ losing to Aus, SA and Pak (but beating India)
- Eng winning all last 6 games to have 7 wins, therefore topping the table as 5 other teams have 6 wins

Btw, with you saying Eng have 7 wins it obviously disproves OP that 6 teams can have 6 wins unless Eng lose to SL or NED

 

[Sunil1z]

So you have:
- India losing to NZ, SA and Eng
- NZ losing to Aus, SA and Pak (but beating India)
- Eng winning all last 6 games to have 7 wins, therefore topping the table as 5 other teams have 6 wins

Btw, with you saying Eng have 7 wins it obviously disproves OP that 6 teams can have 6 wins unless Eng lose to SL or NED

Thanks for pointing out error in Eng calculation
This only proves my point that only Team with 7 wins is guaranteed SF berth . Team with 6 wins must have good NRR to qualify for SF

 

[Qlder]

Thanks for pointing out error in Eng calculation
This only proves my point that only Team with 7 wins is guaranteed SF berth . Team with 6 wins must have good NRR to qualify for SF

No it doesn't. If India win all 9, NZ 8 by only losing to India, no other team will have 6 wins (Eng is not winning all games like you have it). It'll be down to 5 wins and NRR

So if someone upsets India or NZ they'll have 6 wins and be straight through

 

[Sunil1z]

No it doesn't. If India win all 9, NZ 8 by only losing to India, no other team will have 6 wins (Eng is not winning all games like you have it). It'll be down to 5 wins and NRR

So if someone upsets India or NZ they'll have 6 wins and be straight through

India isn’t winning all 9 , neither are NZ winning remaining 8

 

[Prince EWS]

I reckon a team with five will make it.

 

[Qlder]

India isn’t winning all 9 , neither are NZ winning remaining 8

Says the credible guy that has England winning all of their last 6 matches

 

[Sunil1z]

Says the credible guy that has England winning all of their last 6 matches

Let’s say I have more faith in England than IND/NZ

 

[centurymaker]

There may be 2 to 3 teams on 5 wins so NRR is likely to be decisive.

 

[Test fan]

NZ better win the match against India as NZ is boggy team for India .
If NZ lost today match against India then
NZ campaign can still derailed.they have to face Australia,SF and Pakistan after this match .

 

[Owzat]

And one team may have 9 wins and one team 8 wins which throws your theory out the window lol

I reckon 8 points might be enough, 10 probably ought to be. problem is you can't forecast some of the results and is still an upset or two possible, I don't expect Bangladesh, Holland, Sri Lanka or Afghanistan to progress but with England hardest task to make it I think any three from six after India, New Zealand and South Africa 'shoe ins' for the top 3, top 4 worst.



Interesting stat, regardless of inserting or chosing to bat, the side winning the toss has LOST SIXTEEN of the 20 games so far.

No side has elected to bat and won so far, maybe why England decided against but then might not be batting first = loss, just those chose to bat first chose wrong!

Batted first
Won toss : P5 W0 L5
Lost toss : P15 W11 L4

Bowled first
Won toss : P15 W4 L11
Lost toss : P5 W5 L0

Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Holland have won most tosses (3), India and Pakistan the least (1) As you can see from the above, or work out easily anyway, batting first has won 11 games to batting seconds' 9. Chasing however is easier if playing a weaker opponent, as is defending a total naturally

Won batting first vs AFG/BAN/HOL/SRL (5/11) : PAK, SAF, NZL (x2), ENG
Won batting second vs AFG/BAN/HOL/SRL (4/9) : PAK, IND, NZL, IND

About evens/just under half so the significance of batting first or second is going to be down to a number of factors, not least conditions.