*Official* Australia in India 2023

[PaulLennon]

Yes it's amazing how unpredictable results can be when you arbitrarily assume the opposition won't have their best players. Stunning analysis.

Also, a different team making slightly more on different pitches four years ago is absolutely fit for direct comparison to a result that happened yesterday. Also excellent.

my point was that aus winning in SA is not GUARANTEED as the poster was saying.

Ppl could have GUARANTEED Ind's win in SA in 2022 with recent hsitory and especially the win in the first match. But injuries, conditions etc ensured it didnt happen.

The only away series Aus has a sureshot chance of winning hypothetically is NZ and WI.

 

[PaulLennon]

Australia would win any Test in Bangladesh because if you assume that all their best players get hit by a bus, the Bangladesh team is pretty bad. Please go to my Patreon to subscribe for more great analysis.

my point is ppl assuming they will win in bang/sa when they havent won last time.

similar to how ppl were assuming they'd win in SL and Ind. But SL was a draw with an innings victory and Ind is looking like its gonna be 4-0.

 

[Howe_zat]

I liked the bit where a team winning a test didn't really count because if things had happened differently then they wouldn't have done that.

 

[Spark]

Well said. I have heard this 1 win out of xyz tests way too often in the past 6 months, and it seemed manipulated.

I felt England were decent even prior to Bazball. They were really good at home and okay away. They only had that awful Ashes away and WI away. And everyone started rating them as though they were useless.

They also had a loss in NZ. But I think it was mostly that everyone could see that the batting lineup was literally just Root and Stokes, and with Stokes taking a while to recover from his injury, that really made it a one-man show.

 

[Spark]

my point is ppl assuming they will win in bang/sa when they havent won last time.

similar to how ppl were assuming they'd win in SL and Ind. But SL was a draw with an innings victory and Ind is looking like its gonna be 4-0.

Literally not a single human being was assuming they would win in either case. Not one.

 

[PaulLennon]

I liked the bit where a team winning a test didn't really count because if things had happened differently then they wouldn't have done that.

im not saying it didnt count. just saying aus didnt win in sa and bang last time and there is no guarantee they would win if they played now either.

 

[Howe_zat]

a sureshot chance of winning hypothetically

 

[Prince EWS]

Literally not a single human being was assuming they would win in either case. Not one.

Especially not India!

 

[PaulLennon]

Literally not a single human being was assuming they would win in either case. Not one.

Yeah but if Australia played every other team right now I'm confident in saying they'd likely win in RSA, WI, and NZ. Lose or draw in England, lose in India and we already saw them beat and draw vs Pakistan and Sri Lanka respectively. That's not bad because India would likely have a similar up and down record as well.

Australia are winning in Bangladesh

 

[Spark]

"Likely". "Likely" does not mean "guaranteed". "Likely" does not mean "assuming". "Likely" means "likely".

 

[PaulLennon]

This is the first time going into an India tour where I've felt Australia have more than a slim chance of winning.

Prediction: 2-1 Australia

 

[PaulLennon]

"Likely". "Likely" does not mean "guaranteed". "Likely" does not mean "assuming". "Likely" means "likely".

But the same poster said it was likely that Ind would lose in SA if it played now. Which makes no sense considering both Aus and Ind lost their last two away tours to SA and defeated SA badly at home (Ind defeated SA worse than Aus did at home).

The chances of Ind and Aus winning in SA are the same currently - 50/50.

 

[Slifer]

???. No one assumed Australia would win in SL or India. What are the point of these quotes exactly....

 

[ZK$]

I've mentioned it before but the '1 test in 15' is kinda cherry picked. It starts right after 6 consecutive away test wins, one of which was in Chennai, either side of home series wins over WI and Pakistan. For the 2019-21 WTC their record was 4 series wins, 1 draw (Ashes) and 1 loss (India away).

Don't get me wrong, after the loss in WI in 2022 they were at a real low. But they had been overall pretty okay over the previous few years before the revolution.

They were quite unlucky with their schedule that year. Away series in India and Australia and home series against New Zealand and India(WTC finalists)without playing their full strength side at times was never going to end well.

 

[Spark]

But the same poster said it was likely that Ind would lose in SA if it played now. Which makes no sense considering both Aus and Ind lost their last two away tours to SA and defeated SA badly at home (Ind defeated SA worse than Aus did at home).

The chances of Ind and Aus winning in SA are the same currently - 50/50.

It's almost as if there are other ways to analyse cricket than just directly comparing the most recent series results in the dumbest, most asinine manner possible.

 

[PaulLennon]

???. No one assumed Australia would win in SL or India. What are the point of these quotes exactly....

This is the first time going into an India tour where I've felt Australia have more than a slim chance of winning.

Prediction: 2-1 Australia

 

[Slifer]

But the same poster said it was likely that Ind would lose in SA if it played now. Which makes no sense considering both Aus and Ind lost their last two away tours to SA and defeated SA badly at home (Ind defeated SA worse than Aus did at home).

The chances of Ind and Aus winning in SA are the same currently - 50/50.

Has India ever won a series in RSA? Has Australia?

 

[Slifer]

The poster said they had a chance, he never assumed anything. Most of us thought they had a chance as well but pretty much everyone had India as heavy favorites.

 

[PaulLennon]

It's almost as if there are other ways to analyse cricket than just directly comparing the most recent series results in the dumbest, most asinine manner possible.

Most recent series involve similar conditions and a large subset of current players.

The Ind players who did well in Aus in 2020-21 were also by and large the ones who did well in 2018-19.

The Aus players who are performing poorly in Ind now are by and large the same ones in 2017. Lyon bowls well one innings but is insipid in most. Cummins has some decent spells but is mostly non threatening. Warner is still very poor.

 

[Howe_zat]

They were quite unlucky with their schedule that year. Away series in India and Australia and home series against New Zealand and India(WTC finalists)without playing their full strength side at times was never going to end well.

Yeah, I'm not convinced the current side would actually do much better given the same quite brutal schedule with those series.

If the losing streak had stopped there then there's probably no revolution. But the series in the West Indies was an obvious step too low. You could tell the side was at an end.