Yeah, thinking back to the dawn of the golden age around 2013, when it seemed every team had an exciting young quick in the ranks (well, except for Wellington which became a bit of a retiring home for the work horses of the dark years). Auckland with Ferguson, CD with their stable of talented (albeit usually crocked) colts, Canterbury with Henry and Nuttall, Otago with a still teenaged Duffy and of course ND with the dream team and the yet to be disgraced Kuggs. Don't see much of their like in the opening round of the shield. We all chuckled when Might Matt McEwan laid waste to domestic batting lineups a couple of years back, it's a shame the domestic sides around the country seem to have taken it as a template for short term success.
Yes - that's about ten bowlers that were the anointed ones of their generation, most played U-19s either for NZ or domestic U-19s and then played FC very young. Of the ten, Southee+Boult graduated in full to the NZ test side and a couple of others in Henry and Ferguson were or could've been there-abouts in test cricket. The rest either got injured or didn't develop enough.
So who does NZ have in the post-Wagner, post-Boult, post-CDG test era that's approaching quite rapidly? Say two years from now:
Lynchpin
Jamieson. If he gets serious injury problems we're in all sorts of trouble.
End of previous generation
Very-late-career Southee
Late-career Henry
Next generation U-19 pathway into FC, now in early 20s
Sears
N. Smith
Fisher
Kristian Clarke
O'Rourke
Shipley - a bit older at 26, borderline belongs in the next category
(any I've missed?)
Age 28-32 bowlers that might still have something but it hasn't been found consistently yet
Duffy
Tickner
Nuttall
Van Beek (according to NZ A selectors - yuck. 32yo)
Randall, I guess deserves a listing for topping the wickets charts last season
South African pathway
@Kippax - the ones playing NZ domestics right now look pretty medium-paced, who might have a hint of international quality? An inner raging Wagner?
Speedsters that will probably never play a(nother) test
Ferguson
Milne
Fourth seamer allrounder at a stretch
D Bracewell (yeah. 32yo)
Solia
Some unidentified potential in one of the numerous medium pacers going round
?
That's six via the U-19 path, so if the ratios hold then one of those will be a good international bowler and one or two will be a maybe. If we are extremely fortunate one of those listed will be Boult/Southee quality and make a good combination with Jamieson.
But we will likely need another 1-2 bowlers from the other categories to play an important part. Find a way to get something out of those 26-32 year olds or get a South African (yeah it's a joke that 'South African pathway' is even listed as a thing, but that was the previous template). We will probably need some fairly boring but adequate bowlers like late-career Henry and maybe Duffy to tide us over for a bit, especially when there are injuries.
Will be an interesting couple of seasons and depth could be tested earlier than desired. Even this home summer if Jamieson still injured, Boult is unavailable, maybe one other injury ... last NZ test squad suggests Blair Tickner test debut
.