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New feature: Zero to Sixty; Important Runs in Test Cricket

chasingthedon

International Regular
OK, I've updated the feature. I had missed innings for Sanga, Younis Khan and Graeme Smith. It didn't impact the feature that much, more Sanga than anything else. Sorry about that, boys and girls.

Later I'll post the batsman review.
 

Bolo

State Captain
Don't know about the first part but the circumstances around the second have been explained to you. Without wishing to start up an old issue, there is nothing wrong with actually admitting you got something wrong once in while. Instead of finding justifications as to why it isn't you but its the evidence that must be wrong.

Seems you have not read the whole thread.

Sangas number is an error.

I admitted I was wrong on Ponting in my first post on him. I'm now admitting the post was wrong in that it doesn't give proper weight to what causes high impact averages.

You don't seem to understand my post. I get the feeling you are fine with this because it suits your narrative better, but if you have any desire to understand the rankings, take the focus away from Ponting and examine some others with unusually high or low numbers. You will see that Ponting follows trends.
 

the big bambino

International Captain
No narrative. Just giving a guy his due. I said I’m unaware of the Sanga issue and now interested in seeing the update.
 

Bolo

State Captain
No narrative. Just giving a guy his due. I said I’m unaware of the Sanga issue and now interested in seeing the update.
No narrative? You ignored my post giving outlandish amounts of praise to Ponting, claim I can never admit error when I have done so twice in two posts, and are not addressing what causes high impact averages.
 

Bolo

State Captain
I sliding scale would feel more sensible, but not the end of the world.

Bigger issue to me is what is considered important. You can make a 50 in the 4th innings from number 6. 10% win chance when coming to the crease, but 0% when you get out. This is important when a 50 in the third innings is not if it pushes the lead from 350 to 400+. It's definitely misrepresenting the impact of these two innings.

Or runs in a one innings per side snooze-draw. Meaningless but still counted.

The way it intrinsically favours certain types of bats and ones who played in particular conditions is more complicated
 

chasingthedon

International Regular
I sliding scale would feel more sensible, but not the end of the world.

Bigger issue to me is what is considered important. You can make a 50 in the 4th innings from number 6. 10% win chance when coming to the crease, but 0% when you get out. This is important when a 50 in the third innings is not if it pushes the lead from 350 to 400+. It's definitely misrepresenting the impact of these two innings.

Or runs in a one innings per side snooze-draw. Meaningless but still counted.

The way it intrinsically favours certain types of bats and ones who played in particular conditions is more complicated
What I wanted to do here was to find out how a batsman performed based on the state of the match when he came to the crease, not the impact of that innings. That's what my match impact measure did.
 

Bolo

State Captain
What I wanted to do here was to find out how a batsman performed based on the state of the match when he came to the crease, not the impact of that innings. That's what my match impact measure did.
Your goal is to measure volume of potentially impactful runs defined at start of innings rather than actual impact of runs themselves? Needs as solid a definition of potentially impactful runs as possible. Not always easy to do so independently of actual impact. My runs from a losing position creates an issue here. Bad example under the circumstances. You indicated via the Lara example why it's problematic to address. But in catering to the exceptional aren't you ignoring a potentially valuable set of data? Might make sense to exclude less than x% chance of winning at time of arrival at crease and allowing a couple of outliers to fall below this point. Or lower if it makes more sense to you. Below whatever win % has ever been historically managed maybe if you want to be really conservative.

Draws are simpler. You can give drawing positions the same treatment as winning ones if your algo is giving you a draw probability in the same way. If 60% is the magic number for win probability it can be a reference point for draw probability as well unless you see reason to differentiate. Big runs happen in dead draws, so this might have a major impact on some players. Interesting see the effect on Ponting (arguably the most interesting player). Feel like it will drag a lot of the pack back but barely touch his figures.

Anyway, runs scored from a 61% winning position are currently not clutch. A 100% draw or an effective 100% loss is not. This is clearly an issue. We get a perspective on downhill skiing, which feeds into clutch, but I can't guess the extent to which it accurately represents clutch. My feeling is that results will vary significantly depending on whether or not the player in question is named Jayawardene.
 

chasingthedon

International Regular
Hi Bolo, Merry Christmas! Thanks for your input, very much appreciated.

As I said, I wasn't too concerned with the result, rather how the particular player performed based on the situation he was faced with when he came in. As regards what percentage to use, we did discuss that earlier and in any case, let's not discard my findings yet, at least until they've been reviewed.

I'll be posting the summary of the first 100 batsmen (Grace to Worrell) soon, check back after you've had a chance to review that.
 

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