England are rightly the number one ranked side in ODI cricket at the moment but their style of play is not suited to win tournaments.
Anything can happen in finals. A Kapil Dev catch, a silly reverse sweep, an Akram batting spree wtih Inzi going back to back, an Aravinda century, heck even an Fakhar Zaman century in the champs trophy last year. There is no guarantee that the best or even most inform team will win a tournament, but trying to win as many games as possible gives a team the best chance to. I typically favour the better teams chances than the weaker for this very reason.
You can't write off the country that has won 4 out of the last 5 tournaments.
I am not writing off Australia entirely, but it has nothing to do with Steve Waugh, SK Warne, Tom Moody or whoever else played in the 1999 final. In the last World Cup, Australia had Haddin at 8, Maxwell, Watson and Faulkner at 5, 6, and 7. This was combined with Johnson at 9, with Starc and Haze. This was a very balanced team that had depth. Bailey could sub Smith and Clarke, MM Marsh for Watson, Cummins for Johnson, Haze and Starc.
Australia looked a lot better and more like winning going into past world cups than they do this one. Of course they won 1987 from next to nowhere, however.
Nor can anyone think England is a sure bet this far out.
Definitely not, but they're much better chances than they have been in the past. They're playing winning cricket, and winning ODI series that very few teams win.