New discussion:
Can New Zealand actually win? Or more precisely what odds would you give them of winning the series?
I would give them about a 10% chance. If we can't win in England against England we certainly can't win in Australia against Australia. But I could see a drawn series on the cards.
I guess the ultimate thing in our favour is that it is a 3 match series. We seem to be worse starters that pea soup and get better as series go on.
I would be happy to see a 1-1 result. But I am convinced we will lose the first test and will do well to even it after that.
I'm going to give NZ a 51% of winning the series against Australia.
I reckon we were coming home with a wet sail against the Poms and were denied a deciding test - we would have won that series.
We lost the first test with key players who had no decent prep after turning up cold from the IPL, and we still dominated most of that test.
I reckon we will be primed and ready come the Aus series, this is very much a career defining series, our players have been sledged by Aus during and since the WC final and will be steeled for battle. Playing Aus is our Ashes, by rights we should never get near them but I rate our players. I reckon we can get stuck in and really give it to these Aussies. If our boys get a sniff then I think they will take the Aussies down,
I really rate our key players. I expect Boult to be devastating. I expect Kane to dominate. I think Ross is getting closer to his form of old. We have great memories from Hobart. The players involved in that test will be desperate to experience that feeling again.
I expect some of the aging Aussie players to be crocked completely by this Ashes tour. Clarkes back was f'ed after the last Ashes tour...its 5 tests plus the first class matches. Then they are over in Bangladesh. Hardly good prep for their home pitches.
Why not have a bit of confidence. I feel the universe is on our side. The hubristic Aussies deserve to get their just deserts.