Likely quarter final match ups

[Bahnz]

Dilshan, Sanga and Mathews are good enough ODI batsmen to take apart any bowling attack, including this Aussie one. If they bat first they have a decent chance.

Given Sanga's difficulties against Boult this summer, I reckon he could struggle if he's exposed to Starc early enough. Australia to win and set-up a semi vs Pakistan (who get through in 3rd on the back of a washed out game v South Africa).

 

[hendrix]

Given Sanga's difficulties against Boult this summer, I reckon he could struggle if he's exposed to Starc early enough. Australia to win and set-up a semi vs Pakistan (who get through in 3rd on the back of a washed out game v South Africa).

How well does Starc bowl against lefties? In theory it should be easier but all his memorable dismissals have come against right handers.

It adds to my theory that inswing is more effective in ODIs and outswing more effective in Tests. Less room to free the arms, more hacks, fewer slips, more cover for overpitched deliveries etc etc.

 

[BigBrother]

Atleast one of those games must have been 99-07 so teams much stronger than this one.

And what exactly does 99-07 results have to do with it? Yes they beat the ATG Aus side a couple of times in SCG, good for them, but so what? Those were over a decade ago.

As I suspected, what gives them that edge is in the victories came against the struggling Australian side earlier in the decade. Not to say they can't beat the current side, but Australia has to be clear favorites here.

 

[Zinzan]

Given Sanga's difficulties against Boult this summer, I reckon he could struggle if he's exposed to Starc early enough. Australia to win and set-up a semi vs Pakistan (who get through in 3rd on the back of a washed out game v South Africa).

I know there's rain forecast, not sure that translates to a definite wash-out in Auckland does it?

If so, I'm definitely more concerned about playing the Windies than Pakistan in the quarters, simply because the Windies at their best are much more of a threat than this current Pakistan unit when they're firing.

Also, we're assuming Pakistan are going to beat Ireland, which I feel they probably will, but def wouldn't want to put money on it.

 

[jonbrooks]

Given Sanga's difficulties against Boult this summer, I reckon he could struggle if he's exposed to Starc early enough. Australia to win and set-up a semi vs Pakistan (who get through in 3rd on the back of a washed out game v South Africa).

So who will finish 4th in Pool B then?

 

[jonbrooks]

I know there's rain forecast, not sure that translates to a definite wash-out in Auckland does it?

If so, I'm definitely more concerned about playing the Windies than Pakistan in the quarters, simply because the Windies at their best are much more of a threat than this current Pakistan unit when they're firing.

Also, we're assuming Pakistan are going to beat Ireland, which I feel they probably will, but def wouldn't want to put money on it.

Heavy downpour forecast for the afternoon. Not sure how much damage that will do to the ground.

 

[jonbrooks]

I know there's rain forecast, not sure that translates to a definite wash-out in Auckland does it?

If so, I'm definitely more concerned about playing the Windies than Pakistan in the quarters, simply because the Windies at their best are much more of a threat than this current Pakistan unit when they're firing.

Also, we're assuming Pakistan are going to beat Ireland, which I feel they probably will, but def wouldn't want to put money on it.

I think Pak vs Ire will decide who we play in the quarters.

 

[Flem274*]

have tickets sold out for any knock out games we maay play? because i really don't want us to rock up to eden park to chants of "kohli! kohli! kohli!"

india are more in this than most people think. they have a good team and they're basically playing at home in all their pool matches because of the crowd.

 

[Sarun]

have tickets sold out for any knock out games we maay play?

Speaking of that, how many games so far has been sold out?

 

[_Ed_]

Speaking of that, how many games so far has been sold out?

Not sure about Australia, but NZ-SL at Christchurch, NZ-Eng at Wellington and NZ-Aus at Auckland were all sell-outs, I believe.

I'm pretty sure the Eden Park semi is sold out already as well.

 

[jonbrooks]

Well things just got really interesting after Pakistan beat SA and Ireland beat Zim. So what are the permutations and combinations now?

 

[Scaly piscine]

Well things just got really interesting after Pakistan beat SA and Ireland beat Zim. So what are the permutations and combinations now?

Ireland are highly unlikely to progress without another result going their way, as their NRR is awful.

West Indies would be eliminated if they fail to beat UAE (that includes a rained out game).

Ireland will progress if they win one of their remaining games (v India and Pakistan). They will also progress with a tie or a rainout in either of those games, or of course if West Indies are eliminated as above.

Pakistan would probably be eliminated if they lost to Ireland, they have a better NRR than West Indies but this is unlikely to be the case if they lose and West Indies win (against UAE).

 

[Pratters]

Thanks Scaly. So actually, Ireland does have an okay chance of progressing. I was thinking they are completely out of it. One of either of five happening - Ireland winning v Pakistan, India or it raining in either of Irelands games or the Windies-UAE game is not a lot individually, but together, that's a lot better than nothing.

 

[Zinzan]

Yup, Ireland will definitely knock Pakistan out if they get up in that last game (Pak vs Ire) because that will get them to 8 points (3rd after SA as SA's NRR will be too high for them). While Pakistan & West Indies will both still have 6 points (assuming WI beat UAE) in that scenario, the Windies will have then better NRR of the two so Pakistan will be out.

If Pakistan beat Ireland (assuming Ireland lose to India and WI beat UAE), Pakistan will get to 8 points and cement 3rd place, once again they won't be able to improve their NRR to beat SA out of 2nd place (assuming SA beat UAE). Base on this scenario, West indies will qualify 4th ahead on Ireland due to superior NRR, even if they both end up of 6 points.

 

[jonbrooks]

Ireland are highly unlikely to progress without another result going their way, as their NRR is awful.

West Indies would be eliminated if they fail to beat UAE (that includes a rained out game).

Ireland will progress if they win one of their remaining games (v India and Pakistan). They will also progress with a tie or a rainout in either of those games, or of course if West Indies are eliminated as above.

Pakistan would probably be eliminated if they lost to Ireland, they have a better NRR than West Indies but this is unlikely to be the case if they lose and West Indies win (against UAE).

Nice summary thanks.

 

[halba]

QF will be likely:

NZ/West indies
Aus/Pakistan
Ind/England
Saf/Sri lanka

SF: NZ vs SAF (auckland)
AUS vs IND (scg)

comment: Aus have a favourable draw. don't have to face SAF or NZ until the finals. all AUS need to do is beat sri lanka. IND matches up poorly against AUS.

final AUS vs NZ (mcg)

winner : AUS

 

[Zinzan]

Yeah, that's the most likely.

Of course, if SL can upset Aust today it will mean a SA/Aus quarter & and then a likely NZ/Aus semi at Eden Park.

India would be the big winner in that scenario.

 

[Athlai]

Us playing India at the MCG is actually a frightening prospect.

 

[Flem274*]

yeah would be a home game for india

 

[Zinzan]

Us playing India at the MCG is actually a frightening prospect.

Would much prefer them to Aust at Melbourne.