Predict your test XI in 3 years time.

[Migara]

Dimuth Karunarathne
Kaushal Silva
Lahiru Thirimanne
Dinesh Chandimal
Angelo Mathews*
Upul Tharanga
Niroshan Dickwella+
Tharindu Kaushal
Shaminda Eranga
Suranga Lakmal
PVD Chameera

Expect Sanga, PJ and Herath to retire within next three years.

 

[Immenso]

Latham
Brownlie
Williamson
Taylor
Young
Anderson
Watling
Craig
Henry
Southee
Boult

While not surprised at so many kiwi posters including both Neesham and Anderson in same 11, I am surprised that almost all have then put Neesham at 5.
But I doubt it will happen that they both play in the test 11as the selectors will split these two between formats. I've gone for Anderson in the test 11 as I think he will eventually overtake Neesham, but it could easily be Neesham.

The openers spot is the one to get funky and prove how clever you are in 3 years time. But with Bracewell and Carter both not opening for their province, and probably no more talented than Brownlie, unless one if them is ace v spin as well as pace ....

I reckon Will Young will prove to be the real deal, opinion based mostly on his attacking shots in the video scorecards. But he looks quite a complete player, should edge out Craig Cachopa (assuming he's playing both ends of his eligibility).

 

[Justo]

Warner
Burns
Smith *
Lynn
Maddinson
M Marsh
Nevill +
Pattinson
Hazlewood
Behrendorff
Lyon

Not a bad potential line up IMO. Burns could probably be replaced by Silk if he starts firing. Behrendorff as the third seamer (or at least the newest addition to the bowling ranks) will not likely be fully established. He'll be coming in for Starc or someone else who hasn't secured the position or is out due to injury.

The batting could be shuffled around though with Maddinson as second opener and Burns or someone else in the Middle order. Smith could also just stick to 4.

 

[vic_orthdox]

@vic. That's good to know re: Handscomb. Can you name one or two emerging batsman who haven't represented Australia in Tests yet, who has a weakness against spin/also good against spin?

Nah, not really these days, limited to the guys coming through from Victoria. And behind Handscomb, there's not that much to choose from at the moment.

 

[Burgey]

Warner
Silk
Burns
Smith*
Lynn
Paterson/ MMarsh
Nevill +
Starc/ Cummins
Pattinson
Hazelwood
Lyon

Plenty to choose from re the quicks. Haven't ruled out Jackson Bird making a come back to tests, among others who will be in the reckoning.

Side has not quite enough Bl00s in it though.

 

[wellAlbidarned]

Latham
Spud
Big Daddy
Taylor
McCullum
Anderson
Watling
Craig
Henry
Southee
Boult

The lack of Henry in some of the NZ sides is disturbing. He better not end up our MacGill.

 

[hendrix]

I think Duffy could be in contention in 3 years time and is the 3rd seamer NZ needs and deserves. But there's also Henry and Milne and Bracewell and probably Wagner still.

 

[Bahnz]

Latham
Rutherford
KW
Taylor
Young
Anderson
Watling
Sodhi
Bracewell
Southee
Boult

 

[kiwiviktor81]

If Henry isn't in the Test team in three years then either we have three other guys bowling at Hadlee level or my ability to spot talent is non-existent.

 

[vic_orthdox]

If Henry isn't in the Test team in three years then either we have three other guys bowling at Hadlee level or my ability to spot talent is non-existent.

Can be hard with quicks though, you get an injury at the wrong time and someone leaps ahead of you, even though you haven't done much wrong.

 

[Bahnz]

If Henry isn't in the Test team in three years then either we have three other guys bowling at Hadlee level or my ability to spot talent is non-existent.

Think you might be slightly over selling Henry there. Don't get me wrong there's a lot to work with, but there remain real question marks over whether he's at all suited to bowling first change (and no, he isn't good enough to nudge either Southee or Boult out of one of the opening spots). His stamina isn't great and he struggles a touch when the ball isn't swinging. Surprised personally to not see one person backing Wagner to still be in the mix in 3 years time. I reckon he'll be in and out of the team for a long time yet.

 

[Flem274*]

The only question marks over his ability with the old ball were mostly questions from Blocky so I'm not fussed.

But yeah I'd love to see him get through the remainder of the season injury free. It will be his first season without something holding him back if he manages it.

 

[hendrix]

Think you might be slightly over selling Henry there. Don't get me wrong there's a lot to work with, but there remain real question marks over whether he's at all suited to bowling first change (and no, he isn't good enough to nudge either Southee or Boult out of one of the opening spots). His stamina isn't great and he struggles a touch when the ball isn't swinging. Surprised personally to not see one person backing Wagner to still be in the mix in 3 years time. I reckon he'll be in and out of the team for a long time yet.

The best NZ seamers with the old ball are...Southee and Boult. Yes, it took them a while to develop with the old ball (Boult in particular), but we shouldn't be dissuaded from picking a swing bowler as third seamer if they also a hit a good length, have a bit of height, and get the odd bit of seam movement - all boxes Henry ticks.

Bracewell, despite being earmarked as a third seamer who bowls a heavy ball, still tends to be at his best when he's bowling full.

That said, I'm a big believer in Jacob Duffy getting a go in a few years time.

 

[kiwiviktor81]

Think you might be slightly over selling Henry there. Don't get me wrong there's a lot to work with, but there remain real question marks over whether he's at all suited to bowling first change (and no, he isn't good enough to nudge either Southee or Boult out of one of the opening spots). His stamina isn't great and he struggles a touch when the ball isn't swinging. Surprised personally to not see one person backing Wagner to still be in the mix in 3 years time. I reckon he'll be in and out of the team for a long time yet.

I admit to being a Henry fanboy, but I'm not sure the problems you listed are that bad. All quicks struggle a touch when conditions are unfavourable, and stamina is something that can be improved while in the BCs set-up.

I reckon Wagner will be around for a while yet, but with Southee and Boult still very young all it would take is one more pacer to establish himself as a must-pick and there's little room left for him.

 

[wellAlbidarned]

Everything about Henry (minus slight fitness question marks which will need to be proven over a couple of seasons in FC) screams classy first change bowler. Tall. Excellent with the new ball if Bouthee is having an off day. Can bowl an effective back of a length when conditions are unfavourable. Can pitch it up when it's hooping. Can extract seam movement. Can send down the odd ball at 140.

Just because you know what a seam is unlike Bracewell or Wagner doesn't mean you can't bowl with the old ball.

 

[Bahnz]

Just because you know what a seam is unlike Bracewell or Wagner doesn't mean you can't bowl with the old ball.

A fair comment on Wagner, but when he's bowling well Dougeh's seam presentation has always been pretty good.

While Henry is taller than Wagner, at about 6'2" he's not really tall by fast bowling standards, and his bowling speeds decline pretty markedly between 1st and 2nd spells. However, I did have a look at his bowling in the vault against Wellington, and was pleased to see that he was hitting a good old-ball length in his second spell (after bowling a pile of rubbish with the new cherry).

 

[hendrix]

He looks taller than 6'2. Even if he's not, he has a high arm action and what look like long arms. He's not Irfan but he gets bounce.

 

[wellAlbidarned]

A fair comment on Wagner, but when he's bowling well Dougeh's seam presentation has always been pretty good.

While Henry is taller than Wagner, at about 6'2" he's not really tall by fast bowling standards, and his bowling speeds decline pretty markedly between 1st and 2nd spells. However, I did have a look at his bowling in the vault against Wellington, and was pleased to see that he was hitting a good old-ball length in his second spell (after bowling a pile of rubbish with the new cherry).

Doug's seam presentation is anything but consistent though. He wasn't much better than wagner in the Basin test in that regard, though he did bowl an excellent line and length especially to the right handers.

 

[Bahnz]

Yeah, but his bounce isn't huge, and isn't a main line of threat. It's a compliment to his primary qualities - his ability to swing the ball extravagantly at a very healthy clip and his maintainance of accuracy at a full length.

 

[Flem274*]

Henry is bit of everything really, and it's why I was nervous before his ODI debut. No one trait about him really stands out because he's the entire package. He gets good swing, but he's not a pure swing bowler. He gets bounce, but not to ridiculous levels. He has pace, but not the pace of Milne. He's accurate, but not to extreme levels.

He was either going to be really good or really bad when he moved up a level. Happily he's really good. Him bringing some of everything to the table makes him a very adaptable bowler for the test squad.