*Official* English Football Season 2014-15

[Cabinet96]

Aguero though. #woof.

 

[Furball]

Owen: Southampton have been comfortable
1 minute later: Fraser Forster is MOTM.

Helmet.

 

[Cabinet96]

Owen: Southampton have been comfortable
1 minute later: Fraser Forster is MOTM.

Helmet.

Yeah, it's the same old bull****, happens every game.

Biggest thing #stats have brought to football is that it's becoming harder and harder for sides that park the bus* and lose 1-0 to pretend that life is unfair. https://twitter.com/MC_of_A/status/540280394806222848


Not saying Southampton parked the bus in this instance, more of a general comment when weaker sides go away to the top sides. Saints were also genuinely unlucky with Alderweireld's injury just after their last sub.

 

[dontcloseyoureyes]

Aguero though. #woof.

Indeed.

 

[dogwalker]

Struggling to think of a more clinical finisher than Aguero.

 

[Uppercut]

Costa's probably more clinical. Aguero's definitely the best player the Premiership has though. He has that move where he just sprints all the way around centre-backs then hits a shot, and AFAIK no one in the world can do anything about it.

 

[dogwalker]

Costa more clinical than Aguero?

 

[dontcloseyoureyes]

Costa's probably more clinical.

Would love to see an argument for this, Aguero scores from nearly every shot.

 

[Cabinet96]

Well a basic argument can be made by the fact that this season, Costa has converted 32% of his shots as goals whereas Aguero has converted 19%. Costa won't be able to keep that up, but it's still significantly better. I tend to associate Costa with popping up in the box and scoring with a first time shot a lot more than Aguero, who I probably think of more as a dribbling and shooting machine. Can't say I've ever really made a proper study of it though.

Being clinical isn't really that important though. Aguero manufactures loads of chances for himself, might even be the best in the world at it along with Suarez and Messi, which is why he scores so much.

 

[sledger]

Well a basic argument can be made by the fact that this season, Costa has converted 32% of his shots as goals whereas Aguero has converted 19%. Costa won't be able to keep that up, but it's still significantly better. I tend to associate Costa with popping up in the box and scoring with a first time shot a lot more than Aguero, who I probably think of more as a dribbling and shooting machine. Can't say I've ever really made a proper study of it though.

Being clinical isn't really that important though. Aguero manufactures loads of chances for himself, might even be the best in the world at it along with Suarez and Messi, which is why he scores so much.

Surprised to hear an Arsenal fan say this tbh.

 

[Cabinet96]

Haha. There isn't that much variance in how clinical a side is in the long run though.

 

[Pothas]

I am sure the stats back you up on this fact but I find it hard to believe tbh. I would agree that creating chances is the most important thing but some players are much better at finishing than others and this must have a long term impact, no?

 

[Pothas]

The quality of chances created must also be the most important thing, just looking at the number leads you rather close to Charles Reep territory.

 

[Cabinet96]

Pure conversion figures are pretty meaningless but when you take into account the quality of chances you can get a pretty good idea of how many goals to expect in the long run (of course there's huge variance in the short term). Game situation is huge as well. Sledger implied that Arsenal aren't very clinical/efficient, but I'd argue that's more to do with luck and only being ahead 15% of the time this season, than them being much really poor at finishing. I mean, they actually outperformed 'expected goals' models last season.

 

[sledger]

It's all about big moments I think. And when it's time to step up to the plate Arsenal are often left wanting. I've lost count of the amount of times a game has been evenly poised, not many chances for either side, only for Arsenal to get a decent/gilt-edged chance, fluff it, and then in the next ten minutes the oppo gets a similar chance, puts it away, Arsenal lose match.

 

[Nate]

It's all about big moments

Spoken like a true Australian cricket captain.

 

[Uppercut]

Well a basic argument can be made by the fact that this season, Costa has converted 32% of his shots as goals whereas Aguero has converted 19%. Costa won't be able to keep that up, but it's still significantly better. I tend to associate Costa with popping up in the box and scoring with a first time shot a lot more than Aguero, who I probably think of more as a dribbling and shooting machine. Can't say I've ever really made a proper study of it though.

Being clinical isn't really that important though. Aguero manufactures loads of chances for himself, might even be the best in the world at it along with Suarez and Messi, which is why he scores so much.

IIRC Costa had the best conversion in the world last season too. Maybe it'll revert to the mean but until then I'd have to say he's more clinical. Probably.

FWIW it's the impression I've got from watching them too.

 

[Pothas]

It is amazing really because when he was playing with Falcao he was seen as a totally different player.

 

[Uppercut]

Pure conversion figures are pretty meaningless but when you take into account the quality of chances you can get a pretty good idea of how many goals to expect in the long run (of course there's huge variance in the short term). Game situation is huge as well. Sledger implied that Arsenal aren't very clinical/efficient, but I'd argue that's more to do with luck and only being ahead 15% of the time this season, than them being much really poor at finishing. I mean, they actually outperformed 'expected goals' models last season.

You added Danny Welbeck though, and Wilshere's got more game time. They're pretty clearly just bad finishers. And your good finishers like Podolski and Walcott haven't got much game time, and Ramsey isn't getting forward as much.

I definitely don't think it's just a luck thing.

 

[grecian]

Very odd, in this day and age, no sacking in the Prem. Everyone who looks like they're under pressure seem to pick up decent results. Lambert and Bruce this week.

It's a bit dull, I want a "managerial merry-go-round".